Rip Current in New York, September 15, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the New England coast through early
Monday. The remnants of Florence will track through the region
Tuesday. High pressure then builds in behind the system
Wednesday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Ridging aloft and at the surface will result in dry and slightly
above normal temperatures tonight. Uncertainty lies in the
development of fog/stratus toward daybreak. Very much like
Saturday morning, it may develop with the onset of daytime
mixing with a some patchy fog/stratus. Confidence is low.

SE winds this evening will become light and variable overnight.
Dew points will be in the 60s, so it will remain humid.

There is a high risk of rip currents through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Relatively quiet weather this period with an expansive upper
ridge from the Mississippi Valley all the way to the east coast.
Remnants of Florence trapped underneath the ridge across the
Tennessee Valley will begin to get shunted north and east in
response to height falls from a shortwave trough tracking across
southern Canada. This will eventually draw the system into the
northeast early next week with a chance of showers developing
late on Monday.

Prior to that time, it will remain unseasonably warm with
daytime highs in the 70s to around 80, and lows generally in
the 60s.

Areas of fog could also be more widespread Monday morning with a
weak onshore flow and increasing low-level moisture. The one
limiting factor could be increasing mid and high level clouds
ahead of the remnant of Florence.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Sunday due to
lingering southerly swells.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The remnants of Florence remain the main fcst challenge in the long
term. The ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement, with the
remnants getting picked up by the westerlies Mon ngt and transported
across the cwa on Tue. The ECMWF has backed down on the
intensification of the sfc low near the cwa, with the best
development now coming invof Cape Cod, after the event is over
across the local area.

There is still some concern as to where the heaviest band n of the
sfc low sets up. This is the 3-5 inch rainfall zone. Right now, the
modeling keeps this area n of the cwa. However, a sewd shift of less
than 100 miles in the ECMWF, and 100-150 miles in the GFS, will put
the area under the gun for the heaviest pcpn. Based on the latest
model clustering and consistency, will keep the fcst at 1-2 inches
with locally higher amounts, while remaining alert for any swd
trend. The wind threat will also be related to the track and
intensity of the low. The weaker trend in the ECMWF as well as a
track right over the cwa helps to reduce the threat, at least for
this model cycle. 35-40kt are still evident at h925, albeit mainly s
of the cwa attm.

The previous fcst dried things out completely for Wed, and this
looks like the right call based on the 12z data. A dry fcst
therefore Wed-Fri mrng. The cold front gets close late Fri. The
ECMWF is the quickest. Pops have been reduced for Fri aftn based on
the latest timing, and kept at chance all areas Fri ngt when the
fropa appears most likely. This timing is not ideal for shwr and
tstm initiation, so it would not be surprising to only see some sct
activity.

High pres builds into New England Sat, so fair wx has been fcst.
The NBM was used for temps thru the extended.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the terminals through Sunday.

Stratus over portions of the NYC terminals, as well as Long Island,
continues to produce MVFR cigs. Some improvement is being observed
on latest satellite imagery, so thinking we see improvement to VFR
between 20-21z. Once the MVFR cigs dissipate, VFR conditions are
anticipated through this evening. Some MVFR/IFR visibilities are
forecast tonight, mainly after midnight. There may be some fog
development early Sunday morning, which may reduce visibilities to
MVFR or less. Conditions are then anticipated to become VFR around
14z Sunday.

Light and variable winds veer to the SE under 10 kt this
afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday-Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of IFR in fog/stratus
Monday morning.
.Tuesday...IFR possible. Showers and possible thunderstorms with
heavy rain. S-SW winds G20-25KT
.Wednesday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT.
.Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA for seas has been discontinued for the ocean waters as
southerly swell continue to gradually diminish.

A weak pressure gradient over the waters will lead to light
winds through Monday.

Winds and seas increase Mon ngt and Tue as the remnants of Florence
track thru the region. A sca will likely be needed on the ocean, and
will be possible elsewhere depending on the exact track and
intensity of the sys. There is a low chance for gales, mainly on the
ocean. Conditions will improve on Wed, although seas are likely to
remain aoa 5 ft on the ocean thru the day. All areas most likely blw
sca lvls Thu, although seas may be close on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
It should be dry through at least Monday morning and possibly
through Monday afternoon.

1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are fcst for
Tue. This would be capable of producing minor flooding. A more
significant flash flood threat will exist if the axis of hvy
rain shifts further sewd that currently expected, resulting in
3-5 inches of rain.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
EQUIPMENT...//

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-160900-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is potential for heavy rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday
night with the passage of the remains of Florence. There is still
some uncertainty on the track of this remnant low, but there is
increasing confidence in a swath of 1 to 2 plus inches of rain,
and locally higher amounts of 5 or more inches are also possible
in its track. Due to recent rain events, grounds are saturated and
river and streams flows are running well above normal. If the
heavy rain swath ends up over the local region, there will be
potential for urban and poor drainage flooding as well as flooding
along quick responding small rivers, streams, and creeks.

There is possibly a high risk of rip currents on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-160900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is potential for heavy rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday
night with the passage of the remains of Florence. There is still
some uncertainty on the track of this remnant low, but there is
increasing confidence in a swath of 1 to 2 plus inches of rain,
and locally higher amounts of 5 or more inches are also possible
in its track. Due to recent rain events, grounds are saturated and
river and streams flows are running well above normal. If the
heavy rain swath ends up over the local region, there will be
potential for urban and poor drainage flooding as well as flooding
along quick responding small rivers, streams, and creeks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-160900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Maloit