Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain during the early afternoon before drifting into nearby highlands and valleys through the early evening hours. Upper level high pressure centered over the southern half of New Mexico allowed for weak and erratic steering flow across the state and locally heavy rainfall beneath the stronger storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over the higher terrain during the early afternoon before drifting into nearby highlands and valleys through the early evening hours. Upper level high pressure centered over the southern half of New Mexico allowed for weak and erratic steering flow across the state and locally heavy rainfall beneath the stronger storms. A thunderstorm that developed over the north end of the Ute Park burn scar moved slowly south down the Ponil Creek and Cimarron River drainages. A flash flood forced water, mud, rocks, and debris over U.S. Highway 64 between mile markers 301 and 305. The bulk of the storm activity shifted into the eastern plains by the evening hours where several storms became strong with high winds and very heavy rainfall. A peak wind gust up to 58 mph was reported in Fort Sumner.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 10:27 AM MST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1127 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper level high pressure will build northward across the region today, but ample low and mid level moisture will generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of western and northern NM. Storms are expected to weaken and drift into the lower elevations this evening. Stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain, brief IFR to MVFR conditions and mountain obscurations. Included vicinity thunderstorms at KGUP and KSAF late this afternoon and thunderstorms at KLVS during the mid to late afternoon hours. Otherwise, winds will be light today through Friday morning under the influence of high pressure aloft. 28 && .PREV DISCUSSION...258 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018... .SYNOPSIS... A more active pattern will continue through Saturday with deeper moisture in place across New Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes just about anywhere across the state. Drier air will arrive over northwestern New Mexico Saturday then spread into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday and Monday. Upper level high pressure will remain in place over New Mexico next week while moisture trickles back into the area. Showers and storms will favor the higher terrain where the threat for locally heavy rainfall will continue. && .DISCUSSION... The active weather pattern will continue through Saturday before a significant drying trend arrives for central and western NM Sunday. Upper level high pressure over the Permian Basin this morning will allow for another day of southwest to northeast steering flow over NM. PW values have increased the past 24 hours and will continue to do so as mid and upper level moisture advect northward from northern Mexico. The 00Z HREF shows numerous showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall around the higher terrain by early afternoon then focusing around central NM tonight. Friday will be a near repeat of today however model guidance is hinting that a warm core convective feature may organize over southwestern NM Friday night. The flash flood risk appears highest Friday with high PW values and slow storm motions. Guidance diverges Saturday with respect to how far southeast dry air penetrates into NM from the Four Corners region. The NAM generates more convection along and south of I-40 with the remnant convective core while the GFS forces more stable and dry air into nearly all of central and western NM. By Sunday models agree drier air will move east into the Rio Grande Valley while a back door frontal boundary shifts into eastern NM. Confidence on the convective pattern next week has deteriorated with latest guidance trending much drier and warmer for most of next week under a very strong upper high. Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... The upper high remains over NM. Afternoon storms will be slow movers forming over the high terrain, becoming outflow dominated over valley locations in the evening. Storm motions will be quicker to the east and southeast over the northeast plains of NM. The high slips west into AZ Fri, with a backdoor front replenishing sfc moisture across the east. Storms will favor the east slopes of the Sangre's before moving east later in the evening. Heavy rain producers across the east and slow moving storms across the west will raise the risk of locally heavy rainfall Friday. East canyon winds from outflows across the east are likely to occur late in the evening into the RGV Thu and Fri. The high shifts further west Sat and Sun, with a strong trough kicking down two fronts into NM Sun night into Mon morning. The first front will bring fall-like dry air into western NM, while the second will be a backdoor replenishing moisture across the east. Single digit RHs are likely around the Four Corners Sun, with pockets of Haines6 ahead of the front for western NM. The dryness is forecast to be short-lived with the backdoor front winning out and reaching the AZ border later in the day Monday, replenishing moisture as it progresses westward. Smoke from the CA/OR wildfires are likely to settle into western NM Monday morning behind the front. The upper high slides back over NM Monday and into the middle of next week, with a better tap of monsoon moisture entering AZ and perhaps far western NM. PoPs trend back up Mon-Wed as a result, however with the high squarely over western NM, slow storm motions are to be expected with the threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding raising. 24 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 325 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018 NMZ501>540-171100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains- West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River- Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 325 AM MDT Thu Aug 16 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. The strongest storms will be capable of producing strong outflow winds, frequent lighting strikes, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall with minor flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday. The strongest storms will be capable of producing strong outflow winds, frequent lighting strikes, small hail, and heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding. The greatest risk for flash flooding will be over recent wildfire burn areas, within urban drainages, and areas that receive several rounds of heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Guyer
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 222 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:33 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flood forced water, mud, rocks, and debris over U.S. Highway 64 between mile markers 301 and 305. Highway was closed for clean up.
Peak wind gust up to 58 mph at the Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 765637, 765638.