Missouri, 2018

Wildfire in Missouri, February 15, 2018

February 15, 2018 · NWS SGF · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A wildfire burned at least one structure and forced evacuations in the Mark Twain National Forest.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$250,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.

A wildfire burned at least one structure and forced evacuations in the Mark Twain National Forest.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 11:10 AM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 11:10 AM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1110 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...FORECAST AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Issued at 1102 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

High clouds continue to remain fairly thin, therefore sufficient
mixing from above has allowed higher winds to reach the surface
with JLN now gusting to 47mph. Several sustained winds are also
now around 30 mph and a Wind Advisory was issued earlier this
morning and will run through the afternoon hours primarily west
of a Branson West to Lebanon to Vichy line. Also bumped up temps a
few degrees with most locations expected to be in the upper 70s
to near 80 by afternoon. Will need to monitor extreme SE Kansas
and West Central Missouri this afternoon as some drier air advects
in ahead of a front and conditions will get close to Red Flag
Criteria in a small area.

Otherwise an area of showers and perhaps a rumble or two of
thunder will begin to develop across our NW counties by early
evening and move through the area tonight along a strong cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

A Gulf airmass was observed over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were very mild this morning, holding
in the 60s in almost all locations. Some light rain was ongoing as
strong moisture advection persisted.

A few light showers will continue this morning, particularly on
the Missouri side, therefore we have some small pops going.

Regardless of a few showers, temperatures are going to shoot up
into the middle 70s today. It wouldn't surprise anyone if upper
70s were observed somewhere across southwest Missouri.

Later tonight, a cold front will approach from the north, forcing
some showers and even a clap of thunder or two. Areas along and
south of Interstate 44 will receive the best chances for precip
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

By Friday morning, showers will be exiting the Ozarks to the
southeast. Much cooler weather is expected with highs only in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. North winds will usher in Canadian air,
setting the stage for lows in the 20s Friday night into early
Saturday morning.

For Saturday, a return of southerly breezes will occur bringing
temperatures back into the 50s.

Southwest flow strengthens on Sunday into early next week,
with strong moisture advection. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop by Sunday evening, and continue into Monday and Monday
night.

Will need to monitor how unstable the Ozarks airmass can become
with so much shear available. There could be a risk for some
organized storms Sunday night into Monday night. We will have a
better handle on this with future model runs.

With the southwest flow continuing beyond Monday, we will need to
watch for post frontal precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected Today with just some mid to high
clouds moving through. Very gusty southwest winds will occur with
a few wind gusts to 45mph possible, especially at JLN and SGF.
Showers will move through tonight along and ahead of a strong cold
front. Cant rule out an isolated thunderstorm however confidence
is still to low to put into TAFs at this time. Winds will turn to
the northwest behind the front and become gusty tomorrow morning
along with some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ055>058-
     066>070-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Burchfield
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 9:41 AM CST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
941 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161545-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
941 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

   Limited lightning risk.
   Elevated non thunderstorm wind risk.
   Elevated fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Southwest winds of 25 to 35mph with wind gusts near 45 mph will
be common today over portions of extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. This will increase the grassland and natural
cover fire danger risk for Today.

A few thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as
a cold front approaches from the north. Due to the lack of
instability, no severe storms are expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A quick transition from rain to light snow may occur late
Thursday night into Friday morning behind a strong cold front.
Little if any accumulation is expected.

  Additional thunderstorms will be possible Monday into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Taney

When
February 15, 1:00 PM CST to 6:00 PM CST
Where
Taney forecast zone
Property damage
$250,000
Reported by
Park/Forest Service
Coordinates
36.655, -93.041 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Rozelle Wildfire burned in an area near Highway 160 and State Route 125 southeast of Reuter in Taney County. The area has experienced a severe drought. One home was destroyed and the wildfire burned at least 1500 acres of forest.

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Missouri in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 730642.