Heat in Missouri, August 16, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1149 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Remnants from the line of convection that brought heavy rain to
portions of Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel early
this morning continues to push east across West Tennessee.
Locations near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi will
be impacted this afternoon. In addition, can't rule out some
redevelopment along old outflow boundaries that are located across
Northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee. Have adjusted POPS
accordingly and lowered highs across portions of West Tennessee
due to the ongoing convection. Update will be out shortly.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /issued 710 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

MCS across the northern half of the CWA will slowly erode this
morning...with convection expected to become isolated by 10
am...with skies becoming partly sunny soon after. Rainfall amounts
of upwards of 7 inches has fallen...with rates 1 to 2 inches per
hour remaining persistent along I-55 over the next hour. Have
adjusted morning PoPs to capture the forecasted trend.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

Moderate to heavy precipitation is going on across the northern
counties...where storms are likely to train for the next few hours.
Three hourly rainfall amounts already approaching 3 inches across
portions of Craighead and Greene Counties. An additional 1 to 2
inches would overfill ditches and cause minor street flooding.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion indicates a slight chance for
flash flooding today. Farther south only occasional light
sprinkles producing a trace have been tracking through the region.
Current temperatures ranging from the mid 70s where precipitation
is falling...to a few readings in the lows 80s in north
Mississippi. Winds have been south at 5 to 10mph...with gusts
approaching 30 mph in heavier convection.

For today through Saturday...models are in good agreement that the
Midsouth will remain unsettled with multiple periods of clouds and
precipitation. This due to an active northwesterly upper flow. IR
satellite showing current convection in the northern counties
anchored in the base of a passing trough...some breaks are
currently seen with this activity...so an extensive flood threat
is not anticipated. CAMs show cloud tops warming after sunrise as
well. Activity will likely re-fire in the northeastern counties
after 12 pm...and again in the western counties this evening.
Coverage will become more isolated late tonight.

A stronger closed low sinking southeast over Nebraska will
quickly begin affecting the region tomorrow through Saturday.
This disturbance is expected to bring better rain chances over the
central and southern Midsouth counties where rain is more
welcome. Pockets of rainfall amounts of 5+ inches over the next
three days can't be ruled out in the north...with the south
generally in the 1-3 inch range. The region is under a marginal
risk for severe storms today and tomorrow as well...with severe
indices indicating the potential across the southern counties
on Saturday. Plan on including both an isolated severe storm and
localized flash flood wording in the morning hazardous weather
outlook. Temperatures could be above seasonal normals today in the
I-40 corridor and points south where more sun will be seen...in
fact the NAM MOS shows a high of 97F in Memphis with heat indices
topping 105F. Believe that is a bit to much...leaning closer to
the GFS MOS of 90F. Over the north thicker cloud cover and
rainfall will keep highs in the mid and upper 80s. Slightly cooler
readings over the central and south for Friday and Saturday.

Sunday through midweek...a third shortwave will track southeast
from the northern Rockies...affecting more of the Midsouth on
Monday then any other day. Rain chances will subside across the
north on Sunday...with scattered coverage in the south.
Temperatures near normal. Starting Sunday night the next complex
of precipitation will slide east from the Ozarks and persist
into Monday night as a cold front approaches the area. A drier
airmass will slowly infiltrate the Midsouth on Tuesday suppressing
convection to the southern counties. Wednesday and Thursday of
next week appear to be dry and pleasantly mild.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFs

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase during the upcoming
TAF cycle but remain highest near JBR and MKL. Overall, the focus
for storms will shift South with time. Fairly high cloud bases
should keep cigs VFR, though periods of MVFR or lower vis is
possible for brief periods of time in association with the heavier
rain and thunderstorms. Winds will remain from the South to
Southwest, generally 5-10kt through the period. Rain/thunderstorm
chances will increase area wide overnight.

30

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
304 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the Mid-
South today and tonight. The primary hazards will be gusty winds
and localized heavy rainfall/flash-flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the Mid-
South Friday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. The
primary hazards will be gusty winds and localized heavy
rainfall/flash-flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
837 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

ARZ028-036-TNZ048>050-088-089-161415-
Mississippi AR-Crittenden AR-Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Lauderdale TN-
Shelby TN-Haywood TN-
837 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 915 AM CDT
FOR...

South central Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
Tipton County in southwestern Tennessee...
Northwestern Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Lauderdale County in southwestern Tennessee...
Northern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southern Haywood County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 837 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near Covington to Jericho. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in south central Mississippi...northeastern Crittenden...
Tipton...northwestern Fayette...southeastern Lauderdale...northern
Shelby and southern Haywood Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3571 8961 3560 8907 3558 8907 3510 8990
      3531 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 287DEG 14KT 3562 8957 3531 9021

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1058 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLOOD            MARMADUKE               36.19N 90.39W
08/16/2018                   GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALL OVER MARMADUKE. WATER 4 TO 6
            INCHES DEEP.

&&

MRM