Hail in Minnesota, May 8 to 18, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
659 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
and evening. A shortwave trough with multiple bands of enhanced
vorticity is providing the forcing and focus for lift with this
system. There will be two primary areas of thunderstorm activity
this afternoon.

1) Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along and east of
Hwy 60 roughly from Sioux City, IA to Windom, MN. It's in this area
where southerly winds and increased moisture transport is present.
CAPE values will be in the 1000 J/kg range, with models showing
about 30 kts of 0-6 km shear. These values are on the low end for
sustaining strong, rotating updrafts, but despite marginal
parameters, isolated strong thunderstorms are possible.

2) Cold air advection associated with the core of the shortwave will
create enough instability for single cell thunderstorms north of I-
90 as it moves east through the evening and early overnight hours.
Limited shear will keep these showers and thunderstorms on the weak
side, but scattered lightning is still possible.

After midnight, forcing for ascent quickly wanes, as do showers.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, with highs
largely in the 70s. The large scale pattern will be northwesterly
flow, and a quick-moving shortwave embedded in the jet will bring
another round of showers/thunderstorms through the tri- state
area. With limited instability, none of these storms look to be
strong or severe at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

Thursday is a bit cooler for areas north of I-90, with highs only in
the low 60s. The upper level ridge moving in from the west will
flatten as another shortwave moves over the region overnight into
Friday. Healthy moisture transport ahead of this system will cause
it to be a decent rain producer, with 0.5 to 1.0 inch rain amounts
looking to be common. Additionally, those along and southwest of the
Missouri River will see another marginally favorable setup for
strong thunderstorms.

Active weather with periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue
for the weekend into early next week. A longwave trough will deepen
over the Rockies, allowing periodic shortwaves to move through the
Northern Plains. No prolonged dry periods are forecast, but 1)
Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, and 2) Monday currently look
to be the driest periods. If seeking out dry weather, keep tabs
on updates to the forecast, as shortwave troughs are notorious for
shifting their timing this far out. It's worth noting that none
of these rounds of showers over the weekend into early next week
currently look to bring strong thunderstorms or large amounts of
rain.

Temperature-wise, Saturday is forecast to be cool, running about 5
to 10 degrees below average. Sunday's temperatures look close to
normal (mid 60s), and next Monday and Tuesday are quite warm, with
afternoon highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

Scattered storms will move across the region this evening,
followed by areas of MVFR-locally IFR ceilings early Wednesday
morning. Potential for storms and lower ceilings greater at KHON
and KFSD than at KSUX. Any low stratus expected to decrease in
coverage by mid-late Wednesday morning, as increasing northwest
winds mix out the shallow moisture layer.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
424 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-092130-
Lyon IA-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay IA-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-
Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-
Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-
Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-
Turner-Lincoln SD-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay SD-Union-
424 PM CDT Tue May 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms may redevelop across the area this afternoon and
evening. An isolated storm could become severe with hail to the
size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.