Minnesota, 2018

Cold in Minnesota, February 24 to 25, 2018

February 24 to 25, 2018 · NWS DLH · 1 event in 1 county or zone

On the morning of the 25th, the Cass County Sheriff's Office received a report of an unresponsive male in a fish house on Leech Lake. The 21 year old male was pronounced deceased upon arrival at the hospital.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.

On the morning of the 25th, the Cass County Sheriff's Office received a report of an unresponsive male in a fish house on Leech Lake. The 21 year old male was pronounced deceased upon arrival at the hospital. The medical examiner ruled cause of death as accidental carbon monoxide poisoning. Overnight low temperatures were in the upper teens.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 24, 5:58 AM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 5:58 AM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
558 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The main concern during the short term continues to focus on a
fast-moving winter storm which will affect the Northland late this
afternoon through Sunday morning.

Dense fog has developed over portions of northwest Wisconsin this
morning. While numerous stations have reported very low
visibility early this morning, think we'll fluctuate between low
stratus and fog through mid-morning. Low lying areas where winds
have decoupled have the best chance of seeing significantly
reduced visibility. In coordination with MPX and ARX, have opted
for a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM.

A potent shortwave trough will eject out of the Colorado Rockies
this morning with lee cyclogenesis forecast. A baroclinic leaf was
in its early stages of development from northeast Colorado to
South Dakota as observed in GOES-16 water vapor imagery with
cirrus spreading into western Minnesota. The trough and associated
surface low will quickly lift from Colorado to Wisconsin by
midnight. Deterministic models feature a diverse range of forecast
trajectories for the system with the GFS and ECMWF farthest
southeast, the NAM faster and farthest north, and the GEM between
the GFS/ECMWF and NAM solutions. Snow moving into the Northland is
a foregone conclusion at this point, the main question is timing
and final totals. With the wide spread in the guidance, confidence
in snow amounts and placement is lower than this time yesterday.
A swath of 7 to 10 inches of snow still seems likely, but has
shifted farther east with this forecast. The main axis of the
heaviest snow stretches from the St. Croix Valley north through
Douglas and Bayfield Counties and up the north shore. Onshore
winds with this system should result in locally enhanced snowfall
amounts along the north shore, where up to 12 inches of snow is
possible. The diverse low trajectories have a knock-on effect on
frontogenetic forcing and potential instability. Still think there
will be one or more FGEN bands of snow associated with this
system, but the orientation in relation to the storm movement is
still uncertain. Periods of 1 inch per hour snowfall seem likely.
Additional adjustments to timing and amounts will likely be needed
this afternoon as the system matures. The strongest omega and
dendritic growth layer will both be well aloft during this storm,
with a warmer layer with less supersaturation below. Given the
thermal and moisture profiles, snow ratios between 13 and 16 to 1
seem favored. With lower confidence in the forecast particulars
than yesterday morning, did not make any adjustments to winter
storm headlines.

Snow will quickly wind down as the system moves through northeast
Ontario on Sunday. Skies will clear from southwest to northeast
during the day as high pressure builds in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

By Sunday evening the surface low will be north of Lake Superior,
pulling away from the region while high pressure builds into the
region. At this point the upper flow pattern becomes more zonal
and will result in a milder period. It will also be a fairly dry
period with some small chances of precipitation later in the week
as a Canadian short wave trough dips into the northern tier of the
U. S. then merges with the southern stream long wave trough.
Resultant precipitation area will mainly be associated with the
southern system, giving mainly southern areas of the forecast area
the precipitation chances. Warm enough air will be coming into
the region on Thursday to give a chance of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Dense fog in the KHYR area will improve to VFR later thismorning.
VFR conditions and light winds will quickly become IFR late this
afternoon and early this evening as snow spreads across the area.
The snow will make its firt impact on the KBR site, then spread
into the rest of the TAF site around or just after 00z. The snow
will reduce visibilities below 1 mile and frequently below 1/2
mile.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  21  30  14 /  50 100  20   0
INL  30  18  30  13 /  10 100  60  10
BRD  27  17  29  13 /  80 100   0   0
HYR  34  23  32  13 /  50 100  20  10
ASX  32  25  33  18 /  40 100  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ003-004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MNZ011-012-019>021-026.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Sunday for MNZ025-033-034.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ035>038.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Sunday for MNZ010-018.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 4:13 AM CST, 3 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
413 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-251000-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
413 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Dense fog with dangerously low visibilities will be widespread
across northwestern Wisconsin this morning. This fog will also
cause untreated and elevated road surfaces such as bridges and
ramps to be slick.

Snow will begin late this afternoon in the Brainerd Lakes area
then spread across the rest of the northland this evening and
continue through the night. The snow will come down heavily and
reducing visibility to dangerous levels and quickly coat roads.
Travel tonight will become difficult with snow covered roads and
low visibilities.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect during this time period over
all of the northwest Wisconsin counties, and much of northeast
Minnesota. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued as well for
the western tier of counties over north-central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Snow will continue to fall through the morning but end from west
to east. By Sunday morning widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow will
have fallen. Most of the snow will be out of the northland by mid
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snow spotters are requested to report their snowfall measurements
to the National Weather Service.

CLC/klh

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 cold/wind chill. Local standard time, as filed.

Cold/Wind Chill, Northern Cass

When
February 24, 8:00 AM CST to February 25, 8:50 AM CST
Where
Northern Cass forecast zone
Deaths
0 direct, 1 indirect
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
46.950, -94.325 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Cold/Wind Chill, Northern Cass2018-02-2521MaleCampingIndirect

What these are

Cold/Wind Chill
Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Minnesota in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 733561.