A MCV from overnight convection in Michigan as well as a upper level wave all caused favorable conditions for thunderstorms to develop. MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/KG was observed with a 40 knot speed max passing through all resulting in pockets of damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A MCV from overnight convection in Michigan as well as a upper level wave all caused favorable conditions for thunderstorms to develop. MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/KG was observed with a 40 knot speed max passing through all resulting in pockets of damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 1:16 PM EST, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 216 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 Showers and thunderstorms will develop later today into tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Chances for showers will remain in the forecast into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Lows tonight will drop to near 70 degrees, with highs on Tuesday ranging between the upper 70s and mid 80s. Drier and less humid conditions are expected into Wednesday and Thursday. This will be followed by periodic chances for showers Friday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 The main focus will remain on convective/severe trends into tonight and Tuesday. Convective outflow boundary trailing a Michigan MCV will force a broken line of convection through far ne IN/sc Lower MI/far nw OH through 5-6 pm. MLCAPE values now pushing 2000 j/kg with 35 knots of effective shear may help produce an isolated severe cell in these areas, though so far activity is primarily outflow dominant as stronger flow lags the boundary. Mainly dry/humid otherwise through the late afternoon. Shot of deeper moisture and mid level vorticity advection with an approaching mid level jet/shortwave now over IA should allow convection to blossom near leftover frontal boundary across nw IN/lower MI btw 23-02z. MLCAPE values likely exceeding 2000 j/kg and some increase in LLJ (0-3 kt bulk shear magnitudes up to near 30 knots) with incoming height falls suggest eventual organization. Development into bands/bowing clusters appears possible given more unidirectional look to the wind profile (isolated damaging winds the main threat), though later diurnal timing/marginal deep layer shear/meager mid level lapse rates suggest an isolated wind threat at best. There is also a non-zero weak tornado threat with any surges or storm scale outflow interactions given relatively low LCL's and increasing low level flow...though lack of backed surface flow keeps point chances low (SPC 2% risk). Round of rain/storms is the expected to evolve east through eastern portions of the forecast area later this evening into the early overnight. The severe threat should wane with eastward progression as leading line likely becomes outflow dominate removed from better mid level flow. Boundary layer will also cool/decouple limiting the wind threat. Some areas may see an inch or more of rainfall otherwise given high moisture content and potential for some backbuilding (small MBE velocities). Brief urban/advisory level flooding will be the main threat. Latest CAMs solutions have trended more aggressive with shunting the composite outflow off to the south later tonight and Tuesday in wake of this evening's convective complex. Lowered PoPs/QPF as a result during this periods, though could still see a more widespread area of rain/thunder impact the local area sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening as the main mid-upper level trough axis pivots through. Cooler/mainly cloudy the story otherwise on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 Wednesday and Thursday will feature quieter/less humid wx, though a stray late day shower cannot be ruled out either day given cyclonic flow and weak diurnal instability. An upper trough then digs in nw flow over the Great Lakes region Friday, eventually cutting off over the lower Lakes/Ohio Valley this weekend as a closed low per last several models cycles. This process will send a cold front through on Friday with low pressure lingering in the vicinity over the weekend. The result will be periodic shower chances and temps generally near to below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 148 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 An outflow boundary pushed through this morning allowing for some marine air to come into the northwest with some MVFR CIGs and that has helped to hamper, to an extent, some of the early afternoon convection across the region. With a low level jet just to the north and a moist atmospheric column, we'll be watching for some showers with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain as the main threats. The main time frame being watched for thunderstorms is between 22z and 01z and there is a chance for MVFR to possibly IFR flight condition reductions within storms with heavy rain. Thereafter, there is a chance for MVFR flight restrictions forming early Tues, but it depends on where the rain falls this afternoon so have left it out of this issuance. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel SHORT TERM...Steinwedel LONG TERM...Steinwedel AVIATION...Roller Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Northern Indiana 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>079-OHZ004-005-015-016- 024-025-071830- La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN- Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington- Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 /125 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight-line winds and heavy rain are the primary threats. Heat indices will be in the mid 90s today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Friday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. INZ006>009-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-071830- Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH- 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight-line winds and heavy rain are the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Friday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. LMZ043-046-071830- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely this evening. Strong to severe storms will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Friday afternoon.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW FAYETTE 41.66N 84.36W
08/06/2018 E60 MPH FULTON OH TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
NDMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
507 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0504 PM HAIL 2 WNW WINAMEG 41.64N 84.10W
08/06/2018 M1.00 INCH FULTON OH TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
NDMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
519 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM TSTM WND DMG FAYETTE 41.68N 84.33W
08/06/2018 FULTON OH EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FAYETTE. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
NDMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0524 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW SWANTON 41.60N 83.90W
08/06/2018 FULTON OH TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER LINE DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
NDMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
542 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
INZ009-018-OHZ015-062230-
Allen-De Kalb-Paulding-
542 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALLEN...SOUTHEASTERN DE
KALB AND NORTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTIES...
At 541 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Wayne,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
This storm will be near...
New Haven around 555 PM EDT.
Grabill around 605 PM EDT.
Woodburn around 610 PM EDT.
St. Joe around 615 PM EDT.
Antwerp around 620 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Cuba, Leo-cedarville,
Newville, Saint Joe, Concord, Harlan, Wallen and Spencerville In
Dekalb County.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 469 between mile markers 19 and 30.
Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 305 and 320.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4099 8518 4115 8529 4138 8484 4132 8480
4125 8480 4125 8476 4114 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 242DEG 28KT 4111 8515
JBALLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
557 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
MIZ079-080-062245-
Branch-St. Joseph-
557 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND
NORTHWESTERN BRANCH COUNTIES...
At 557 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Centreville, or
7 miles north of Sturgis, moving east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Coldwater, Union City, Centreville, Colon, Nottawa, Leonidas,
Sherwood, Wasepi, Findley, Matteson Lake, Hodunk and Fairfax.
This includes Interstate 69 in Michigan near mile marker 14.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4195 8496 4182 8550 4194 8558 4207 8522
4207 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 252DEG 30KT 4191 8546
GHThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:59 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The public reported two large trees were tipped over by strong winds.
Local fire officials reported significant wind damage to a barn. No further details were available.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 780436, 780437.