5 to 3 inches of rain across western Maine resulting in an ice jam and minor flooding on the Carrabassett River at North Anson.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GYX wrote it up.
Low pressure moving up the Appalachian Mountains produced 1.5 to 3 inches of rain across western Maine resulting in an ice jam and minor flooding on the Carrabassett River at North Anson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 21, 10:34 PM EST, 4 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1034 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to spread rain and much warmer air
into the region tonight before a cold front moves in from the
west on Saturday. This front will bring a shift to west winds
and colder temperatures, back toward what is normal for this
time of year. Near normal temperatures are expected through the
middle of next week with no major storms expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1000 Pm Update...
Steady light to moderate rain continues to push east into
eastern Maine late this evening. Still a fair amount of shower
activity in its wake across New Hampshire and western Maine but
expect showers to gradually wind down through the early morning
hours with little in the way of additional accumulation. Have
updated pop and wx grids to reflect current radar trends and
tweaked area temps/tds. No other changes planned attm.
Prev Disc...
700 PM Update... Stream of light to moderate rain continues to
push northward through the region ahead of low pressure over
central New York. Expect rain to slowly edge eastward out of the
Connecticut Valley over the next 2 to 3 hours but will remain
heavy at times across central and eastern New Hampshire and
adjacent western Maine. Several area rivers in New Hampshire
heading toward flood stage as snow melt combines with rainfall.
Rain will shift east of New Hampshire around midnight but rivers
are expected to continue rising through Saturday morning. Have
adusted pops and wx grids based on latest radar trends and aside
from a few temp/td tweaks no major changes to current forecast
planned attm.
Prev Disc...
Temperatures across New Hampshire and Maine range from the 30s
in a few stubborn valleys to the mid 60s. Manchester NH is
currently the warmest at 64 degrees, while other parts of even
southern and central NH are in the upper 30s. For the most part
though a strong LLJ is scouring out the colder air that was only
moderately wedged in place against the higher terrain. After a
slippery morning, road temperatures have warmed enough so that
black ice should not be an issue tonight.
Moderate rain covers almost all of Maine and NH, with plenty or
precipitation still upstream over MA and NY. As noted in WPC's
excessive rainfall discussion and mesoscale discussions,
moisture content is extremely high, with both Upton and Albany,
NY breaking their PWAT records this morning. In our neck of the
woods PW anomalies are around +5 standard deviations above
normal, which is truly remarkable. This morning's sounding at
GYX shows a deep warm layer which supports warm rain processes
and contributes to rainfall totals. This is a highly unusual
event for late December in New England, especially considering
the source region is the tropics.
Precipitation gradually moves east overnight but until then
expect another 1+ inches of QPF. This combined with snowmelt and
poor drainage (snow covering drains) could result in flooding.
That combined with forecasted river flooding means the Flood
Watch remains in place. For more information on Hydrology
concerns, as well as Coastal Flooding, please see related
sections below.
The wind advisory for the coast remains in place beginning with
gusts currently in the 20-25 mph range and expected to increase.
The highest winds will peak tonight for the coast as warmer
temperatures and rain help to translate stronger winds aloft to
the surface. The low level jet moves offshore around midnight
and this should bring an end to the steady heavy rainfall and
also the wind threat. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
40s for most locations with some valleys in the lower 40s. Have
included some areas of dense fog overnight and through tomorrow
as heavy QPF eroding snow is usually a sure bet.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fog is likely Saturday morning with some areas dense. A cold
front will move through the region Saturday with a line of
showers, clearing up the fog but briefly bringing additional
precipitation. The warm air mass will be replaced by quickly
falling temperatures in the wake of the front from west to east
during the day, with gusty westerly winds behind the front.
Overnight lows will range from the teens along the Canadian
border to the mid 20s south Saturday night. Residual snow
showers are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with
light accumulations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Most of the long term period will be free of
significant weather. A weak system moving through New England
on Monday looks to bring some light snow accumulation to southern
areas early Monday morning. Christmas Day looks mostly sunny
with near normal temperatures. The next good chance for
precipitation is later in the week when an area of low pressure
moves through the Northeast U.S....though it is a little too
early to nail down any details with timing and precip type.
Impacts/Hazards: No significant impacts expected from the light
snow Monday morning. Too early to detail any significant
impacts from the system late in the period.
Details: Sunday begins in the wake of the exiting area of low
pressure to our northeast, leaving our region in northwest winds
at the surface and more westerly winds aloft. May see some
upslope snow showers in the far northern mountains early, but
otherwise it should be a quiet day. A weak short wave will
approach from the west Sunday night into Monday morning with
some moisture to work with. The southern half of the CWA should
see some light snow showers early Monday morning with light
accumulation possible in southern New Hampshire. The system
moves offshore by Monday evening and high pressure begins to
build in behind it overnight.
Christmas Day looks free of any significant weather with high
pressure dominating our region along with deep layer northwest flow.
Skies will be partly cloudy in the mountains and mostly sunny
elsewhere with highs just a few degrees below normal. Quiet
weather continues Christmas night as lows drop into the single
digits in the north and the teens in the south.
Models are hinting at snow flurries in the northern mountains on
Wednesday, but the next significant precipitation chances are
with a system approaching our region late in the week. The
global deterministic models are not in agreement on the timing
of its arrival into New England as the GFS brings it in
overnight Thursday into Friday morning and the ECMWF waits until
Friday morning into the early afternoon. As a result, rather low
confidence right now with this system and any potential impacts.
Still plenty of time to hammer out the details with this system
in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...IFR conditions expected tonight in heavy rain.
LLWS will be strong today as well at most terminals as winds
around 2000 ft approach 65 kt. Improvement is foreseen Saturday
as cold front sweeps across region.
Long Term...Southern terminals possibly to MVFR or lower
conditions Monday morning due to snow showers. Otherwise VFR
conditions at all terminals until late in the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale force winds continue on all waters through 1
AM tonight. We do expect the outer waters to continue with
gales but the bays will be dropped at that time.
Long Term...SCAs possible for eastern zones on Christmas Day,
late Wed/early Thu, and on Fri.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
So far only seeing minor rises on the rivers, but it will come
in time. Still monitoring for possible ice jams as ice breaks up
and flushes downstream. The rain along with warm, moist air will
also likely add some melting snow to the runoff equation, so it
is likely that some rivers will rise into flood. Additional
minor flooding of poor drainage areas is possible, especially in
areas where storm drains may be clogged.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Friday morning's tide saw a surge of 1 ft, creeping up close to
flood stage at Portland. The tide tonight is the more minor
tide, so flooding is not expected. However, the tide tomorrow is
even higher. Although winds over the waters will be lower at
that time, they will still be directed out of the south, onshore
over the coast of Maine. This will likely maintain the 1 FT
storm surge and lead to minor coastal flooding, splash over, and
beach erosion near the time of high tide. A Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued to highlight the threat of flooding
around the 10AM tide for the entire Maine coast as well as
coastal New Hampshire.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MEZ012>014-018>028.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MEZ022>028.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EST Saturday for
MEZ023>028.
NH...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NHZ001>015.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for NHZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon EST Saturday for
NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 MEZ012>014-018>021-NHZ001-004>013-015-221515- Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York- Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Northern Coos- Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan- Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough- Interior Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough- 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine, southwest Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. MEZ022>028-NHZ014-221515- Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln- Knox-Coastal Waldo-Coastal Rockingham- 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NHZ002-003-221515- Southern Coos-Northern Grafton- 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Hampshire. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. MEZ007>009-221515- Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset- 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine and western Maine. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ150>154-221515- Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM- Penobscot Bay- Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM- Casco Bay- Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM- 1007 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Low pressure moving up the east coast produced 1.5 to 3 inches of rain across western Maine resulting in an ice jam and minor flooding on the Carrabassett River at North Anson (flood stage 15.00 ft), which crested at 16.44 ft.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maine in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Maine, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 798711.