A multiple day period of rainfall led to flooding and flash flooding across portions of southeast and far eastern Kentucky on this day. A cold front, which pushed into eastern Kentucky on September 26, stalled across southeast Kentucky and oozed back toward the northwest today.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A multiple day period of rainfall led to flooding and flash flooding across portions of southeast and far eastern Kentucky on this day. A cold front, which pushed into eastern Kentucky on September 26, stalled across southeast Kentucky and oozed back toward the northwest today. This brought another widespread round of 1-2 inches of rain across eastern Kentucky, with amounts exceeding 2.5 inches in Floyd and Harlan Counties. Along with numerous creeks and streams overspilling their banks and impacting roadways, several mudslides were induced by saturated soils.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 27, 8:50 AM EST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 950 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 Rain has continued to increase in coverage over the past couple of hours. As a wave of low pressure over central TN continues to track northeast today the rain will continue, and spread into the far northern part of the forecast area. Updated NDFD to increase rain chances to categorical across the forecast area. Rain totals today should range from around 1 inch in the southeast to less than 0.25 inches in the far northwest. UPDATE Issued at 623 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 Pockets of light rain have developed across southeastern Kentucky early this morning. Expecting this activity to increase through the day today, with heavier rain in the afternoon. No major updates to the forecast were needed, just ingested and blended current observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 402 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 Current surface analysis shows a stalled front to the southeast of Kentucky. Aloft, a CONUS-wide trough continues to progress to the east with a shortwave slated to move through the Commonwealth later today. This will lead to increased rain, mainly concentrated in southeastern Kentucky, into this afternoon. The HiRes models and GFS/NAM Guidance pick up on this trend as well. Therefore, used a blend of the HiRes and synoptic models for PoPs to better reflect these higher trends, likely to categorical, towards the afternoon. With upper level forcing moving to the northeast, the rain will diminish through late Friday. Switched from showers to stratiform rain based on consensus and because thunder is very limited for eastern Kentucky through the end of the work week. Low temperatures this morning will range from 53 degrees in the north and 61 degrees in the south due to recent FROPA and rain. High temperatures through Friday will be below seasonal norms, but be on a gradual increase into the weekend. Lows Friday morning will be in the low to upper 50s. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 408 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 The upper level flow will start out zonal across the Ohio Valley and a surface high is expected to progress into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This surface high and a frontal passage by early Saturday will lead to drier weather through much of the weekend. This surface high will shift east by late in the weekend and we will see return flow. This will bring temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Sunday and Monday. The heights will continue to increase into Monday as upper level ridging takes hold over the Southeast US. The moisture looks weak on Monday and therefore opted to go dry. On Tuesday, a front approaches the Upper Ohio River Valley and a upper level wave approaches from the west. This will lead to the potential for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Then upper level ridging builds north out of the Southeast US and surface high pressure sets in to dominate by midweek. This will lead to high temperatures climbing back into the into the lower 80s for most on Wednesday with dry weather expected. The models are in reasonable shape up until the end of the period. This is where the upper level and surface features support differing solutions. The more notable issue is on Thursday, where GFS wants to settle a front into the region, but the ECMWF suggests a more amplified upper level ridge. Overall given this leaned toward lower POPs for what will be the new day 7. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2018 We see a surface front setup across the Tennessee Valley this morning that will remain nearly stationary. This will couple with an upper level wave leading to more widespread light rain over a good portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon into this evening. We are seeing some fluctuations in the CIGs this morning, but the TAFs will probably remain mostly MVFR to IFR for CIGs and at times VIS through the period based on the guidance and forecast soundings. As we move into the evening we should see the more widespread rain push into southeast portions of eastern Kentucky. Even so we will see CIGs remain in the MVFR range at least with lowering CIGs expected toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and out of the northeast through the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...SBH SHORT TERM...CGAL LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...DJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 333 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281045- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 333 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. CGAL/DJ
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 76 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:07 UTC.
4 debris flow, 4 flood, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Department of Highways reported a mudslide on U.S. Highway 460 outside of Pikeville.
The Floyd County Emergency Manager reported that a mudslide caused the shutdown of Calhoun drive in Prestonsburg.
Local Emergency Management observed portions of Kentucky Highway 321 and Abbott Creek Road in Prestonsburg being inundated with water, causing each roadway to be impassable.
The Department of Highways reported water flowing over Caywood Branch Road east of Harlan.
The Kentucky Department of Highways reported half a foot of flowing water across portions of Camp Creek Road in Camp Branch southwest of Harlan.
Local broadcast media and dispatch relayed reports of nearly 3 feet of standing water in a poor drainage area on Duffield Street in Harlan. Farther southwest of Harlan, runoff caused Little Creek in Crawford Branch to develop a swift enough current to wash out a culvert on a driveway on Kentucky Highway 2425.
Dispatch reported that Old Pineville Pike Road near the intersection of U.S. Highway 25 and Kentucky Highway 441 was inundated with flowing water just north of Middlesboro.
The Department of Highways relayed a report of a mudslide on Kentucky Highway 7 south of Hazard.
Fire Rescue reported several locations along Kentucky Highways 404 and 850 southwest of Prestonsburg were flooded due to overflowing ditches.
A local media outlet relayed a report of Greenrock Fork overspilling its banks and flowing across a portion of Kentucky Highway 825 near Riceville.
Emergency Management relayed that a hillside gave way as a mudslide occurred over a portion of U.S. Highway 25W between Kentucky Highway 92 and Main Street in Williamsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 777543, 777534, 777535, 777537, 777538, 777539, 777540, 777542, 777536, 777541, 777544.