Slow moving thunderstorms developed this afternoon ahead of an upper level disturbance, bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into eastern Kentucky. Isolated wind damage occurred in Laurel County as one storm initially grew very strong.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms developed this afternoon ahead of an upper level disturbance, bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into eastern Kentucky. Isolated wind damage occurred in Laurel County as one storm initially grew very strong. Additional storms produced penny to nickel sized hail, while portions of northeast Letcher County experienced flash flooding due to persistent storms producing between 2-3 inches of rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:19 PM EST, 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 319 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 Slow moving thunderstorms developed across the southern part of the forecast area this afternoon with the most concentrated cluster over northern Pulaski County. This prompted the issuance of a flood advisory for the area. Scattered thunderstorms will continue in the south for the remainder of the afternoon, with chances increasing in the north later today. Our area is between two weather systems. An upper level low was over the northern Gulf of Mexico with troughing extending up the crest of the Appalachians. The convection in the southern part of the area was associated with this feature. An east west oriented cold front was over central parts of IN and OH, and this front continued to drop south. The remnants of convection associated with the cold front should eventually reach the northern part of the forecast area, but it is uncertain if the convection will hold together as it moves south this evening and instability gradually decreases. GOES measured total precipitable water was 1.4 inches over the area this afternoon, well above normal for mid May, and around the 90th percentile. Forecasts for Wednesday keep PW around 1.4 to 1.5 inches so thunderstorms on Wednesday will once again be capable of heavy rain production. Instability will decrease tonight and thunderstorm chances will diminish, but Wednesday should be very similar to today as surface based CAPE increases to 3K and thunderstorms, possibly with locally heavy rain, develop again in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 319 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 A rather active, but in some ways stagnant weather pattern will remain in place across the area into early next week. The upper level low currently over the Gulf of Mexico will drift north and be absorbed into a trough that will remain over our area into the weekend. At the same time the cold front currently over OH and IN will become quasi stationary and linger in the OH and TN valleys into the first part of next week. As such there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in our area, with the best chances in the afternoon and evening of each day. It does appear the PW will decrease later in the forecast period, and will follow the previous idea of mentioning heavy rain in the Hazardous weather outlook with any storm from now through Friday. By the middle of next week the front may finally shift far enough south that our rain chances decrease. Temperatures will remain above normal, especially overnight lows. Daily showers and thunderstorms will help to suppress afternoon maximum temperatures, but highs will still be above normal for the most part. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 While VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period, there will be scattered thunderstorms, especially from this afternoon into this evening and again Wednesday afternoon. For this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous in the southern part of the forecast area. These are associated with an area of low pressure over the southeastern United States. A cold front is also located over the central parts of OH and IN, and as this front drops south thunderstorm chances will also increase in the northern part of the forecast area late this afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain and will carry VCTS in the TAFS. Any fog tonight will be dependent on where rain falls this afternoon, and will only carry a few hours of MVFR visibility with fog at SME around dawn. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 340 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-162245- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 340 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly during the evening. The stronger storms could produce locally heavy rain, hail and strong wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Wednesday through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into Friday could produce locally heavy rain at times. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. SBH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018
KYZ068-079-151915-
Rockcastle-Pulaski-
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PULASKI
AND SOUTHWESTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 240 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Bobtown, or
12 miles north of Somerset, moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bee Lick, Bandy, Quail, Maretburg, Ottowa, Woodstock, Spiro, Wabp,
Hansford, Willailla, Bromo, Level Green, Brodhead and Eubank.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3735 8457 3735 8455 3733 8451 3738 8449
3741 8440 3724 8435 3722 8468 3725 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 253DEG 19KT 3726 8461
ARSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018
KYZ080-152000-
Laurel-
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LAUREL COUNTY...
At 326 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bunch, or 10
miles west of London, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Bernstadt, East Bernstadt, Atlanta, Wood Creek Lake, Pittsburg,
Carmichael, Billows, Victory and Hare.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3711 8429 3712 8428 3712 8430 3715 8429
3717 8430 3718 8427 3719 8427 3728 8407
3720 8400 3709 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 237DEG 20KT 3713 8426
ARThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:53 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch relayed a report of a large tree blown down on Kentucky Highway 490 near East Bernstadt.
Emergency Management reported nickel sized hail in Egypt.
A citizen reported penny sized hail near Payne Gap via social media.
Dispatch and local media reported several instances of flash flooding from near Fish Pond Lake to Fleming-Neon and Whitaker. This included portions of Kentucky Highway 3406 being closed, along with several other local roads. Just southeast of Tolliver Town and near Payne Gap, a couple of culverts were displaced due to swiftly flowing flood waters. Three people had to be rescued from their vehicles after they became inundated by water, while four homes were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 745103, 745104, 745105, 745106.