Numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain occurred along and south of a weak stationary front that extended from central Arkansas to southern Illinois. The storms slowed down or stalled, causing isolated flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain occurred along and south of a weak stationary front that extended from central Arkansas to southern Illinois. The storms slowed down or stalled, causing isolated flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 9, 5:41 AM CST, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 The nice convective band lifting slowly northeast into southeast Missouri and west Kentucky is not handled well by latest HRRR data. Expect it to continue to lift northeast through the morning and then bounce around the southern half of the area this afternoon. The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 No echoes on radar as of 08Z. A weak surface cold front has made it about half way south through the region. With only some thin cirrus behind the front, fog is developing and some patchy dense fog will be possible through daybreak. We will monitor visibilities closely and if dense fog become widespread a Dense Fog Advisory may be hoisted later this morning. An upper-level low stands out very well over eastern Kansas on recent water vapor satellite imagery. As the low slowly approaches our area, it will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along and south of the surface boundary roughly over the southern half of the region late this morning through the afternoon. This is the consensus of 00Z and later guidance, so will have likely PoPs over much of this area. There will be lull as we head into the evening, but as the upper low begins to move southeast across the Quad State tonight, an increase in coverage is expected over the southern half of the area late this evening and overnight. This activity may linger into Friday morning over the Pennyrile, but as the low progresses farther east we should begin to dry out by midday throughout the region. Neither shear, nor instability is impressive, but there will be plenty of moisture, so our primary concerns will be locally very heavy rainfall and lightning. With the persistent upper forcing and the east-west boundary, some training will be possible. Beyond Friday morning, the convective potential is quite meager, but not zero. Although the initial upper low/trough will push east of the area our region will remain under general troughing aloft with weak impulses potentially forcing rounds of convection. Forecast confidence in timing convection later Friday through the first half of the weekend is fairly low. We will emphasize the diurnal forcing and have low chance PoPs areawide Saturday afternoon, otherwise, PoPs will be very limited in area and magnitude. Once again the primary concerns will be locally heavy rainfall and lightning. As for temperatures, southern portions of the area may struggle to reach the middle 80s, while the northern portion of the area may see upper 80s. With clouds and convection potentially lingering into Friday, the eastern third of the area may not climb out of the middle 80s. By Saturday, upper 80s will be the rule, with some 90 degree readings likely. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the returning trend toward drier weather appears to be expanding well beyond the weekend, now extending into Monday night. The 00z Thursday deterministic and ensemble version of the GFS, as will as the Canadian guidance continue sharpen, deepen, and develop and intense closed low become more cold core in nature over eastern Indiana and Ohio by Sunday night. Earlier this week, the forecast mean trough axis extending from the low in Ohio was further west and tapping into a greater depth of moisture across eastern sections of the WFO PAH forecast area. The model runs during the last 48 hours are definitely pushing any chance of rain to the very edges of the forecast area. Likewise, the closed low development over KS/OK on Monday continues to move more northeast with time, slowing the influx of moisture and instability on the western side of the narrow ridge axis that develops between the KS/OK low and the deep low over eastern Ohio early Tuesday. The moisture and instability slowly moves in on Tuesday, but does not bodily impact the WFO PAH forecast area until Wednesday and Thursday. At this point, a lower PoP forecast for Wednesday and Thursday of next week is warranted based on how well the KS/OK low moisture and instability will be advected toward the local area. Temperatures at or below normal (maybe as much as 5 degrees Fahrenheit) are expected for the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 Thicker mid-level ceilings are spreading eastward across the area early this morning. As they overspread an area any fog and low clouds should dissipate. Still looking for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the area, possibly impacting KCGI and KPAH with IFR or lower conditions intermittently through at least the early afternoon. Guidance is hammering on fog potential again tonight, but the models all have solid mid-level ceilings, so left it out for now. Could see another round of showers over KPAH overnight. This activity would primarily impact west Kentucky. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-101000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 323 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few patches of dense fog will be possible mainly over southern Illinois and the Evansville Tri State. Conditions should improve by 8 AM. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected mainly over the southern half of the region from late morning through the afternoon. After a brief lull early this evening, another round of scattered thunderstorms is possible late this evening and overnight once again mainly in the southern half of the region. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the region each day. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DRS/Smith
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
848 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E HICKMAN 36.56N 89.15W
08/09/2018 M2.28 INCH FULTON KY MESONET
2.28 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED FROM 7 A.M. TO
8:30 A.M. AT THE KENTUCKY MESONET STATION IN
FULTON COUNTY.
&&
DWSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over one lane of U.S. Highway 641 in downtown Benton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 773426.