Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms led to instances of flash flooding across both Knox and Whitley Counties this evening, resulting in numerous road closures. In addition, a few homes in Corbin were surrounded by water.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms led to instances of flash flooding across both Knox and Whitley Counties this evening, resulting in numerous road closures. In addition, a few homes in Corbin were surrounded by water.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 18, 3:07 PM EST, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 407 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 358 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018 Current surface observations show a cold front moving over Kentucky, coincident with the passage of an upper level shortwave. Convection has been forming ahead of the front, as seen in current radar signatures, and gradually moving southeast. The main threats with this convection will be heavy rainfall, leading to flooding concerns. A Flood Advisory was issued earlier this afternoon just north of the Mountain Parkway due to higher rain rates in the convection. Rain rates in this line have since decreased, but this will continue be monitored through the evening with the development and progression of other convection. This is particularly true in areas that have seen heavier rainfall during the day such as the area from Breathitt County to Pike County. A Flood Advisory as well as a Flash Flood Warning was recently issued for portions of this area in Floyd County. The HRRR did not seem to have a very good handle on current trends, but the CONSShort did have heavier PoPs in the north with the advancement of the lines of convection. Therefore, used the CONSShort as a baseline for PoPs. Made minor adjustments to better show the current radar trends and expected progression. The cold front is expected to slow and stall just to the south of the Commonwealth. This will keep chances of showers through Sunday, mainly in the southeast. However, a weak upper level ridge will set up Sunday night, bringing a brief lull in precip overnight into Monday. A warm front, associated with a low pressure system located over the Central Plains, will begin to lift northward over Kentucky Monday morning and increase the potential for some showers into the afternoon. Stuck close to guidance and CONSShort for temperatures. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be in the upper 60s and afternoon highs will be in the low 80s. Lows Monday morning will also be in the upper 60s, but valleys could potentially see slightly cooler temperatures with the clearing of clouds overnight. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 407 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018 At the start of the period an upper level short wave trough and associated surface low will be in the vicinity of the IA/NE/MO tri state area. This system will advance east northeast towards the lower Great Lakes. Initially this will result in a warm front moving across the area from Monday into Monday night with a trailing cold front then pushing across the area on Tuesday. With a good flow of deep moisture in advance of this system we'll see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances on Monday, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday with the cold front. The overall upper level system will be weakening as it moves east northeast, but mid level wind fields still look fairly strong as we move into Monday night and Tuesday. Depending on exact timing of the cold front passage it is possible we could see some strong storms on Tuesday. Some showers may linger into Wednesday, but the end of the week will feature cooler and drier weather as the front moves into the southeastern United States and surface high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will be below normal for the end of the week before warming again next weekend as surface high pressure slides to our east. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018 The band of steady showers this morning has moved out of the state. The main concern for the afternoon and evening will be convection and thunderstorms that build from the west due to breaks in the cloud cover leading to diurnal heating. This has already begun and is reflected in radar trends and observations at a few of the TAF sites such as SME. Another factor that has been present so far today has been lower ceilings. Most of the TAF sites, except those that have not seen as much steady rain such as SYM, have been reporting LIFR to IFR CIGs into the afternoon thus far. Expecting this to gradually lift through the evening as the cold front makes its way across eastern Kentucky. The concern for the overnight will be the formation of valley fog. Expecting lowering visibilities and ceilings at all TAF sites, but particularly SME, LOZ, and JKL since these sites were the ones that saw the heaviest rainfall today. Have allowed for lowering VIS at SYM and SJS due to ample moisture present, SYM being located near water, and also the proximity of SJS to the heavier rainfall earlier today. Ceilings are expected to lower again through dawn but gradually rise by the end of the TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the southwest and be light, but have the potential to be higher in heavier showers and in thunderstorms. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...CGAL LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...SBH/CGAL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 409 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191300- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 409 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible through this evening. A few of these could contain locally heavy rainfall, which could result in isolated flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible tomorrow in the southeast, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also possible at times Monday through Tuesday and again on Friday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DJ/HAL/CGAL/SBH
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
443 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018
KYZ050-051-182130-
Montgomery-Bath-
443 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN
BATH COUNTIES...
At 442 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Sharpsburg, or
7 miles north of Mount Sterling, moving east at 20 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Jeffersonville, Sharpsburg, Preston,
Reynoldsville, Wyoming, Sideview, Peasticks, Walkers Crossing, Flat
Creek, Coons Station, Odessa, Stepstone, Bourbon Furnace, Gatewoods
Station, Slate Valley, Crooks, Bethel and Stoops.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
LAT...LON 3823 8369 3821 8370 3820 8367 3820 8366
3799 8376 3799 8377 3797 8378 3810 8407
3811 8408 3813 8407 3817 8399 3826 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 290DEG 15KT 3818 8398
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:08 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch reported water flowing over Master Street in Corbin, as well as across Kentucky Highway 1629 northeast of Corbin.
A local newspaper reported flowing water over a portion of several roads in Corbin, including 5th Street where a few homes were surrounded by water.
Dispatch reported water flowing over several roads in Barbourville, including Cumberland Avenue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 767024, 767026, 767025.