Hail in Kansas, May 23, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
237 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

...Isolated Svr Tstms Possible Late Afternoon-Evening Hrs Today
and Tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Aloft: RAP analyses/WV imagery and 12Z RAOBs show the Rex block
remains over Wrn N America. The low was over ID/WY with SW flow
over the Plns. The Rex block will finally break down over the next
24 hrs...but that does not mean an end to the summer wx. Models
are tightly clustered on the low drifting into MT tonight and into
the Canadian Prairies tomorrow. As this occurs...the flow will
remain SW over the Cntrl Plns...but a trailing trof from the low
will move over the Plns from ND to Wrn KS by 00Z/Fri.

Surface: The CWA was in the warm sector. Low pres was over MT
with a warm front extending SE into the mid-MS Vly. High pres was
over the GtLakes. The rgn will remain in the warm sector thru
tomorrow as the low lifts to Lk Winnipeg. As it does so...a
trailing sfc trof will drift from the lee side of the Rockies into
Cntrl Neb and NW KS... extending from ONL-LXN-CBK.

Now thru mid-evening: Isolated tstms. MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg but
0-6 km shear is very weak (20 kt). So expect outflow dominant
ordinary cells.

Tonight: Any evening storms will die shortly after sunset with no
help aloft. With no change in the situation...could small/isolated
shwrs and possibly a tstm or two redevelop after 3 AM...similar to
this morning. Most locations will remain dry.

A mild and muggy night with dwpts in the 60s. Temps will not fall
below 70F until after midnight.

Thu: Possibly similar to this AM with small isolated shwrs
associated with high-based ACCAS. Isolated tstms could develop
along the sfc trof. With temps 87-92F and dwpts in the 60s...
MLCAPE is fcst near 2500 J/kg. 0-6 km shear will be 15-25 kt
across the CWA (lowest E/highest W). Any tstms that develop could
turn svr...but tstm coverage will not be widespread.

Temps similar to today (87-92F).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Aloft: The last 2 runs of global models and the EC/GFS ensemble
means are in excellent agreement that the Westerlies will remain
far to the N over Canada thru next Wed. Low-amplitude NW flow will
occur Fri behind Thu's trof. A ridge will then build over the
Cntrl USA Sat downstream of a low that moves into the Wrn USA and
cuts off over UT. Neb/KS will be on the W side of the ridge with
weak SW flow. Predictability regarding when cut-off's open up or
become mobile is low...but present indications are that a trof
approaching the W coast could force the low to lift into the Nrn
Rckys Tue and the Nrn Plns Wed as a remnant trof. The tail end of
this trof could affect the CWA.

Surface: Very weak high pres will build over the Cntrl Plns Fri-
Sat. It is then fcst to drift E of the rgn Sun. A large high will
sink from Canada into the GtLakes Mon-Wed. This scenario will
maintain Multiple days of return flow.

Temps: The heat is on. Welcome to an early summer. Widespread
low-mid 90s Fri-Mon...then possibly cooling back into the 80s-low
90s Tue-Wed as heights fall a bit.

Precip: Mostly dry. There will be the typical isolated tstms that
fire daily well to the W within the lee trof. The weak flow and
lack of forcing will keep nearly all of it well to the W of the
CWA...but can't completely rule out a rogue storm or two making it
to areas W of Hwy 183. If the upr trof moves thru here Tue or Wed
that would increase the risk of sct tstms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Significant Wx: LLWS tonight.

This Afternoon: VFR with FEW-SCT CU 5-6K ft. SCT-BKN altocu and
cirrostratus 10K ft and above. S winds 15-25 kt. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR. No clds at or below 10K ft but there could be a few
VFR -SHRA's around after 09Z with altocu bases 10-12K ft. LLWS
develops. S winds 8-15 kt. Confidence: High

Thu thru 18Z: VFR. FEW-SCT altocu around 10-12K ft. Still could be
a few -SHRA's around. Possibly a -TSRA. S winds increase to 15-25
kt. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
217 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
217 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms through 9 PM.
A severe storm is possible with hail near the size of quarters
and wind gusts near 60 MPH. Isolated thunderstorms may redevelop
in the area after 3 AM. None of these storms are currently
expected to be strong or severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few non-severe storms could linger into Thursday morning. In the
late afternoon and evening hours...there is a slight chance for a
few isolated thunderstorms. Any storms that form could be severe
with hail up to the size of golf balls and damaging winds around
60 MPH. A storm or two could linger past midnight...but they
should not be severe.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible at various times and
locations Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. While severe storms
cannot be ruled out...the overall risk is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a slight chance spotter activation may be needed through
9 PM...mainly west of Highway 281.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Kelley