Flash Flooding and Flooding in Kansas, August 13 to 14, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1251 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis from SPC showed a broad
cyclonic circulation over the central and southern High Plains
early this morning. Within this pattern, an upper low was becoming
more established over southeast Colorado while shortwave
disturbances were lifting northeast into far west Texas and into
Oklahoma. Deep layer moisture was streaming northward into
central and portions of western Kansas east of the upper low. The
regional radar mosaic showed showers and a few thunderstorms
increasing across Oklahoma into west Texas early this morning.

Deep layer moisture will continue to stream north into Kansas
today. Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous as
daytime heating increases. Model soundings show very moist
profiles with little shear. Severe weather is unlikely in this
environment but given the high precipitable water values and
expected storm motion, locally heavy rain will be possible
especially over central Kansas.

Model solutions tend to show a round of precipitation lifting
north across south central into central Kansas today, most likely
aided by the shortwave approaching the region from west Texas. By
late this afternoon, the best chances for precipitation should be
aligned across central Kansas. The models are all hinting at
another round of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping over west
central and much of southwest Kansas this evening and overnight as
shortwave energy rotates around the backside of the upper low into
the area. Have increased precipitation chances across much of
southwest Kansas into the overnight hours. Will maintain chance
POPs over the far southwestern sections along the Colorado border
as they will be the least likely to see significant rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

The upper level low will move out of the High Plains into eastern
portions of Kansas and Nebraska by Tuesday afternoon. We will see
lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly across central Kansas
during the day but the main focus will gradually be shifting east.
By Tuesday evening, showers and thunderstorms will be ending over
central Kansas as the upper system continues to exit the region.

After a fairly quiet day on Wednesday, the models show a broad
upper level northwesterly flow pattern developing with upper level
disturbances tracking out of the northern Rockies into the northern
and central Plains through the remainder of the week into next weekend.
This will set the stage for afternoon and nighttime thunderstorm
activity moving out of the eastern slopes across Nebraska and Kansas.
The GFS and ECMWF both continuing to show a more significant
disturbance moving out over the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

An upper level disturbance moving across western Kansas along
with abundant low level moisture will lead to good chances for
thunderstorms at KHYS/KDDC from 21 to 12z. More isolated
thunderstorms may also affect KGCK/KLBL. MVFR CIGS conditions are
expected to prevail at KHYS for much of the period, with VFR
conditions elsewhere outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  65  82  62 /  50  70  60  10
GCK  84  63  83  60 /  30  60  30   0
EHA  89  63  86  62 /  20  40  10   0
LBL  86  64  85  62 /  30  40  40   0
HYS  81  65  78  62 /  80  80  80  10
P28  82  67  84  65 /  80  60  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-141000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
505 AM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018 /405 AM MDT Mon Aug 13 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across central and parts
of southwest Kansas today and into tonight. The main threat from
these storms will be heavy rain and localized flooding in low
lying areas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will continue mainly across central Kansas on
Tuesday with storms moving out of the area Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The threat for hazardous weather is low.

Chances for late afternoon and night time thunderstorms will
continue from Thursday evening into the weekend.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Significant risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo