Stalled frontal boundary remained the focus for thunderstorms into the 8th with marginal shear profiles and sufficient instability allowing for a few strong to severe storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
Stalled frontal boundary remained the focus for thunderstorms into the 8th with marginal shear profiles and sufficient instability allowing for a few strong to severe storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 12:35 PM EST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 135 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 Showers and storms have formed this afternoon and will continue into this evening with no severe weather anticipated. Highs in the 80s today will be able to drop to near 60 degrees tonight. For the rest of the week and into the weekend, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast with highs in the 80s. Humidity continues through the rest of the work week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 Another post-convective/diurnal lull early this morning but longwave trough axis remains upstream with low level moisture plume still in place locally. A few ISO showers/storms remain possible through the early morning given approaching vort max and lingering moisture/ MUCAPE. However...expect better coverage to arrive late morning into this afternoon. Theta-e trough doesn't fully infiltrate our area until late this evening and embedded shortwave will be crossing our area during prime (such as it is) afternoon heating. Instability profiles are lower than previous days but models still indicate around 1000 J/kg 0-1km MLCAPE. This should be enough to support at least SCT convection given weak forcing and this is supported by most hi-res CAM's. Best chances would tend to be in the southeast where better moisture/instability exists but latest CAM's suggest most of our CWA is at risk of an afternoon storm and have raised PoPs accordingly. Severe weather potential is very low given marginal instability, shear, and forcing but can't entirely rule out a stronger storm. Low level wind profile does appear more unidirectional than yesterday with much more veered surface wind so threat for rotating updrafts would appear to be much lower and lackluster instability profiles should prevent a severe wind or hail threat. Precip will fully exit around 00Z and anticipate dry conditions overnight as lower theta-e airmass finally arrives. Highs today will be very similar to yesterday under mostly cloudy skies but tonight's lows will drop into the low 60s (possibly a few upper 50s) given falling dewpoints, clearing skies, and light winds. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 Unfortunately, weather will remain on the active side through much of the period as perturbed northwest flow eventually turns into a closed upper low over the region early next week. This will lead to several periods of primarily diurnally-driven low chance PoPs. First weaker wave arrives Thursday afternoon and although CVA forcing appears minimal...models indicate a modest theta-e plume folding back into the area. With diurnal heating this will likely touch off a few SCT showers/storms and raised inherited PoPs to match latest concensus blends. Again, severe weather chances would appear low given poor wind/shear profiles and weak low level convergence but latest NAM and GFS are indicating a narrow ribbon of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE driven largely by surface dewpoints returning to around 70F and therefore can't rule out an isolated severe pulse storm. Similar story for Fri but with lower instability and greater forcing. Held with mid-range chance PoPs and not anticipating anything severe at this point. Closed low takes shape by Sun and this will maintain chance for afternoon showers and a few storms. Better chances still look to be on Sun with upper low almost directly overhead. After a warm day Thu...high temps will remain near to slightly below normal through the weekend. Upper low lifts early next week but another trough will follow close on its heels with another chance for rain next Wed. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 Another day of lingering MVFR conditions with a few showers around to start the TAF period. There is a lake boundary and another convergent boundary to contend with this afternoon and short range models form storms and showers along those as the boundary shifts southeast. Can also see showers forming ahead of the boundary. Not expecting very many severe storms today, but gusty winds and heavy rain are possible. Heavy rain may be able to drop flight conditions down into MVFR to IFR. Again, there are hints that fog may form tonight especially where rain falls this afternoon. Winds are expected to be light tonight so that also helps. LAV guidance and aviation visby models have FWA getting lowered visby but NAM soundings show SBN has the better potential with lacking sfc moisture at FWA. Still, with enough uncertainty here, will hold off on inclusion in TAFs for now. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...Roller SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...Roller Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-091000- La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke- Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN- Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien- Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance- Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 /220 AM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible today but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend but no severe weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LMZ043-046-091000- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 320 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are possible this morning but no severe weather is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend but no severe weather is expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1247 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 INZ004-005-081715- St. Joseph-Elkhart- 1247 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 ...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELKHART AND NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES... At 1246 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over northeast Saint Joseph and northwest Elkhart counties, moving east at 20 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy downpours are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... South Bend, Elkhart, Mishawaka, Georgetown, Granger, Simonton Lake, Dunlap, Osceola, Bristol, Roseland and Indian Village. This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 77 and 101. && LAT...LON 4176 8578 4164 8579 4165 8627 4176 8625 TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 270DEG 12KT 4172 8618 MCS
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 117 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 INZ005-006-081745- Lagrange-Elkhart- 117 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ELKHART AND WESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES... At 116 PM EDT, an area of strong thunderstorms extended from east of Elkhart to near Middlebury, moving east at 30 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and brief heavy rain are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Lagrange, Middlebury, Bristol, Scott, Shipshewana, Howe, Plato, Woodruff, Ontario, Emma and Oliver Lake. This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 99 and 125. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4156 8532 4164 8584 4176 8583 4176 8533 TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 269DEG 25KT 4169 8572 FISHER
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Northern Indiana 151 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 INZ024-025-081815- Wabash-Huntington- 151 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WABASH AND WEST CENTRAL HUNTINGTON COUNTIES... At 151 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Andrews, or 7 miles east of Wabash, moving east at 15 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Huntington, Andrews and Lagro. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4081 8573 4085 8573 4091 8551 4077 8552 TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 273DEG 14KT 4083 8568 FISHER
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
INZ008-017-081830-
Noble-Whitley-
202 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NOBLE AND NORTHERN
WHITLEY COUNTIES...
At 201 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tri-lakes,
moving east at 30 mph.
Winds gusts to 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tri-lakes, Churubusco, Etna, Ege, Green Center, Lorane, Merriam, Blue
Lake, Big Lake, Goose Lake, Loon Lake, Collins, Ormas and Bear Lake.
Seek shelter until this storm passes.
&&
LAT...LON 4122 8565 4124 8565 4134 8561 4130 8524
4126 8526 4126 8531 4118 8531 4118 8533
4116 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 282DEG 28KT 4127 8554
MARSILIThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 25 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:11 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An off duty NWS employee reported a large tree, between three and four feet in diameter, was blown down.
Emergency management officials reported numerous healthy trees, as well as tree limbs up to six inches in diameter were blown down on SR 105, between County Road 250 South and the Salamonie Reservoir.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 780704, 780706.