Damaging Wind in Illinois, May 28, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

PM heat of day convection bubbling up, should have locally heavy
rain as the primary hazard, although cannot rule out isolated gust
of wind or hail. Storms should wane with/shortly after sunset.

Alberto's remnants will work their way toward us overnight and as
PWats rise to greater than 2 inches, will experience localized
heavy rains esp in our east, from Tue pm-Wed. Have issued an FFA
for the SLGT risk exceeding FFG counties in our east, to collab
with the OHX FFA and soon to come LMK FFA. This could be expanded
further westward with time, as we get more on top of the eventual
track Alberto takes.

The currently modeled track takes Alberto's Low track across the
western FFA edge along the Lakes and to the Wabash river, lifting
it out of the northeast part of the FA by Wed am. Lingering trof
related pops will continue thru the remainder of the short term
forecast (Wed-Wed night) however.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

On the overall mid/upper flow pattern across the CONUS, the
ECENES/GEFS ensemble means solutions appeared to be in decent
agreement.  However, going into the weekend, variability of the
smaller features (placement, timing) became a challenge.

A mid level trof/ridge/trof pattern across the CONUS at the start of
the extended forecast period will undergo changes as the flow in the
eastern side of the country will enter a blocky pattern, and a
northern stream shortwave over the west coast will progress eastward.

As a ridge aloft attempts to build into the PAH forecast area
Thu/Fri, southwesterly surface winds and westerly low level flow
should help to maintain a warm and unstable atmosphere for us, with
surface dewpoints peaking in the lower to middle 70s. This, combined
with the approach of a surface frontal boundary from the north, will
provide scattered showers and tstms on Thu. Thu night through Fri
night, this activity should begin to diminish from the west as a
drier airmass progressively filters into our region, driven by a
south-southeastward moving lobe of shortwave energy over the Mid-
Atlantic region. Thus, the first half of the weekend should be
mostly dry and slightly cooler under deep northerly flow (according
to most deterministic model solutions).

By Sat night, the western CONUS shortwave should have a suppressing
effect on the blocked ridge as it nears our vicinity. The models
currently suggested this feature may cut off over TN or the
Carolinas by Mon. Thus, at this time limited probabilities of deep
moist convection will remain in the forecast through Day 7 (Mon).
Temps will be cooler than they have been recently, but still
somewhat above average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

PM convection will be monitored closely, with KPAH and possibly
KOWB perhaps closest to the most active developing showers/storms.
These should diminish with loss of diurnal fuel, with otherwise
VFR conditions until late tonight. That's when time/height cross
sections show the next round of Alberto's remnants moving
in/toward the terminals, with lowerinc bases and potential
restrictions to vsbys with showers...best chances south (KCGI/PAH)
and slowly working northward/westward with time, as Alberto lifts
into southcentral TN enroute toward western KY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for KYZ010>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-291000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
230 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Mainly heat of day storms will have localized heavy rain and
lightning as their primary hazards...although an isolated stronger
storm with gusty winds or hail cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will be
possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, when a Flash
Flood Watch is in effect for southwest Indiana and areas of
western Kentucky east of the Lakes.

Afternoon heat index values will approach the century mark
Thursday and Friday afternoons, mainly across the southern half
of the region. Thunderstorm chances continue each day Wednesday
through Sunday, mainly during the heat of the afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rain and lightning are expected to be the
primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports of rainfall amounts as Alberto tracks in and
through the region are encouraged.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
411 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KYZ006-008-009-282200-
Marshall KY-Calloway KY-Graves KY-
411 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALLOWAY...SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT...Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Murray moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Spotters
reported wind gusts to 45 mph east of Murray.

Locations impacted include...
Murray, Mayfield, Lynnville, Sedalia, Hardin, Kirksey, Harris Grove
and Brewers.

LAT...LON 3650 8859 3679 8868 3678 8815 3654 8810
      3650 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 077DEG 19KT 3668 8823

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
516 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     DEXTER                  36.74N 88.30W
05/28/2018  E50 MPH          CALLOWAY           KY   PUBLIC

            SMALL TREE DAMAGED.

&&

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KYZ005-006-008-282300-
Marshall KY-McCracken KY-Graves KY-
517 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL...
SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN AND NORTHERN GRAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 516 PM CDT...Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Reidland moving west at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paducah, Lone Oak, Reidland, Lowes and Symsonia.

LAT...LON 3708 8880 3704 8853 3703 8852 3702 8850
      3687 8846 3683 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 077DEG 20KT 3695 8855

PS