The Ohio River rose back above flood stage late in the month. December ended up mild and wet.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The Ohio River rose back above flood stage late in the month. December ended up mild and wet. Total precipitation amounts for the month were up to 2.5 inches above normal. Record daily precipitation amounts were noted on the 1st and 14th at several locations. It was the heavy rain at mid-month that caused the river to re-surge above flood stage. The river remained above flood stage into the new year.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 22, 11:55 PM CST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1155 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 Updated aviation section for 06Z TAFs. UPDATE Issued at 732 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 Looking at both the high resolution CAM guidance, as well as the Canadian, European, and NAM-WRF numerical guidance, the current forecast still is on track with approach of the next system very late tonight and during the morning on Sunday. There may be some wiggle room (plus or minus 20-30 nm) on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield Sunday morning, but do not see much reason to alter the current forecast. Will make the customary intermittent refresh on sensible weather elements through the evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 A nice warm advection rainfall event is still expected over mainly west Kentucky very late tonight and primarily Sunday morning. The 12Z GFS and NAM are in reasonable agreement in most of west Kentucky getting wet, so will have the edge of PoPs running from KPAH to KOWB. All of the saturation is expected to be in the low- levels and temperatures will be above freezing, so this will be a light rain/drizzle event, with the wettest conditions expected in the Ft Campbell to Elkton area. We are still expecting the rain to exit stage east by 18Z, but clouds will be slower to exit. This will hold temperatures down well into the 40s for much of the region east of the Mississippi River. Right with the upper trough there could be some flurries or sprinkles in the morning from Perryville MO to Mt Vernon IL. This should dry up as the trough moves farther east into our region. Surface high pressure will slip south of the region Sunday night, and south winds will return on Monday. A fast-moving storm system will approach the area Christmas Eve, and some light precipitation may reach western portions of southeast Missouri before sunrise Christmas morning. Although surface temperatures will likely remain above freezing through the night, it will be just cold enough at the surface to support a mention of light snow along with light rain. No impacts are expected. Any precipitation Monday night will be associated with warm advection ahead of the upper-level storm system, therefore, the forecast is likely to trend warmer, if PoPs trend higher. The bottom line is that if this system amounts to anything Monday night it will just be rain. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 The main focus next week will be on a major storm system that will track northeast across the central Plains states. The main impacts on our region will occur Thursday into Thursday night as the surface low tracks from Kansas into Iowa. There is some potential for strong gradient winds and locally heavy rain. Strong or possibly severe convection cannot be ruled out. Model agreement remains very good concerning the strength and track of the system. A powerful upper level jet streak (near 120 kt at 300 mb) will accompany a negatively tilted shortwave as it swings northeast from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The associated surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeast. Although the central pressure will not be particularly deep, a strong low level wind field will develop both in the warm sector and on the cold side of the storm. The ecmwf and gfs have both consistently indicated around 60 kt of wind at 850 mb over our region Thursday. Mixing is typically very poor this time of year due to low sun angle, but there is some potential for strong and gusty winds. Convection could enhance any wind gust potential. The gfs and ecmwf have been indicating some weak low level instability in the warm sector, with an axis of 1000/850 layer mucapes up to around 500 j/kg. Given the strong upper level dynamics and associated wind fields, this warrants some attention. However, a strong dry slot is also depicted with this system, somewhat reminiscent of the December 1 system. In that case, the dry slot all but eliminated strong convection over our forecast area. The presence of the large dry slot and the progressive nature of the system argue against a prolonged heavy rain event. Other than that, there is not much in the way of impactful weather expected. Any lingering frozen precip Christmas morning should be brief and light. With temps above freezing, no accumulations are expected. Highs will reach the mid to upper 40s on Christmas. A slow warming trend will continue into Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds ahead of the intense western storm system. Mainly dry conditions are expected until later Wed night, when the storm system emerges into the Plains. Looking ahead to next weekend, colder air will spill south behind the strong low. Highs Saturday look to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build eastward across the central Plains, bringing dry conditions. However, upper level southwest flow will bear watching as the longwave trough axis stays west of our region. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 Cloud cover will increase across much of the region overnight into Sunday morning as a weak area of low pressure approaches. Much of this is expected to be VFR, but some MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out, especially across western Kentucky where light rain is also possible in the morning. KOWB remains the only TAF with VCSH and MVFR mentioned at this time. Low MVFR and IFR ceilings in central Illinois may sneak into the Interstate 64 corridor around daybreak, but should be in the process of dissipating as they do so. Light and variable winds tonight will become northwest around 10 knots behind the departing low on Sunday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...RJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 258 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-231100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 258 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday. At this time, the potential for strong storms cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. DRS/MY
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Ohio River. Low-lying woods and fields near the river were inundated.
Minor flooding occurred along the Ohio River. Low-lying woods and fields were inundated, including some state park property.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, December 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 794046, 794045.