Funnel Cloud in Illinois, August 7, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Early this morning, showers and thunderstorms were moving across
northern Missouri where a slow moving cold front was located.
Numerous rounds of storms were identified on the radar. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms were located across northern
Iowa towards the area. This front, showers and storms will drive
the short term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Chances for precip should continue most of the day today as the
cold front to the south will aid in rising motion across the
southern CWA. Models and WV depict numerous waves in the H5 flow
that will continue to cause chances for storms today. This should
continue until the H5 wave axis skirts east of the area. Current
indications are that this could occur by 06z Wednesday. This
morning, it appears that storms to the south of the CWA have
capped off the moisture feed. This means that the best chance of
rain will be across the southern CWA during this morning. That
said, as we get closer to sunrise, it may turn into a dry
forecast.

This afternoon, the main vort moves through the area. Hires
guidance initiates convection across the central and northern CWA
and then moves it to the east and south during the day. This may
be the best chance for the rest of the CWA to see precip today.
Deep layer shear of near 40 kts will be enough for updraft
organization, that said CAPE is weak, so strong storms could be
possible today. SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather along
and east of the Mississippi River. This threat is for damaging
winds. Precip should end a little after sunset across the area
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Not much change in the extended. A benign stretch of weather is
expected, with seasonal temps of highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s and relatively light winds of 0-10 MPH; with NW flow aloft and
surface ridge of high pressure. There are some spotty mainly low end
(20-30 percent) precip chances Thursday afternoon through Sunday; as
upper level waves filter southward into the region. Will likely see
a lot of dry hours. The best chance (40-50%) is Friday afternoon
across the northeast third of the CWA. Overall, not much in the way
of measurable rain through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Two main concerns in the TAF period. The first is the chance for
thunderstorms today. Thunderstorms should redevelop this
afternoon, however, with low confidence on position decided to
leave out of TAF until it becomes clear where they will occur. The
other is the chance of IFR and even LIFR conditions late in the
period. Started to trend this way in the TAFs, however low
confidence precludes putting it in now.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
325 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-080830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
325 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are expected today. The main threat from any
thunderstorm would be lightning and gusty winds. Severe weather
is not anticipated at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
705 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

IAZ067-068-ILZ015-071415-
Muscatine-Scott-Rock Island-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline,
and Rock Island
705 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

...Patchy Dense Fog This Morning...

Patchy dense fog has developed across the area this morning.
Visibilities will quickly drop to around 1/4 mile or less in some
areas, especially river valleys and low lying areas. Please take
caution while traveling this morning. The variability of the
dense fog will cause rapid changes in visibilties in short
distances. The fog is expected to improve rapidly after 9 AM this
morning.

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
747 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW OAKLAND MILLS     40.97N 91.63W
08/07/2018  M1.25 INCH       HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
927 AM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SE LORAN              42.18N 89.87W
08/07/2018  M2.75 INCH       CARROLL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 7PM SUNDAY.

&&