NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 2:52 AM MST, 10 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 22, 2:52 AM MST, 10 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
352 AM MDT Sat Sep 22 2018
.DISCUSSION...Today Through Next Saturday.
Slight ridging and SW flow will result in a dry, mostly sunny,
warmer day across SE Idaho, with highs getting into the low-mid 80s
across the Snake Plain, eastern Magic Valley, and Southern
Highlands, cooler at higher elevations. Increasing winds today,
especially at higher elevations, combined with widespread RH values
of 9-15% necessitate continuance of a Red Flag Warning for the
Central Mntns above 7,500 feet and the Caribou Highlands/SE CWA
above 6,500 feet. Those critical fire weather conditions will be the
main story today, with an otherwise excellent day for outdoor work,
recreation, and agriculture. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out early
this AM in the Upper Snake Plain and valleys of the Caribou
Highlands, but surface temps are running warmer this morning
compared to yesterday, so any issues should be quite isolated.
Our next storm system and cold front is still progged to sweep
across SE Idaho Sun eve, with really no major changes to precip
expectations or timing noted in the guidance this AM. We continue to
carry isolated showers north of Stanley and Challis very early Sun
morning, expanding south/east toward Ketchum, Mackey, and Monida
Pass by late morning, increasing in coverage/expanding along the MT
border into Island Park during the afternoon, and ending during the
eve in the Upper Snake Highlands and Teton Valley. Have nudged PoPs
up to 35-50% in portions of the Central Mntns and MT border as
confidence inches up that these areas will see the most shower
activity based on good general agreement between the GFS and EC. The
NAM continues to look too dry and was left out of the PoP and QPF
blends this morning. Finally, nudged QPF totals down just a hundredth
or two, with a general expectation of 0.03 to 0.10 inches with this
event. Have continued mention of thunder Sun afternoon, but kept t-
storm coverage isolated, and a more moist airmass should preclude
reaching critical fire weather conditions.
The big story next week continues to be a much cooler airmass
advecting in behind Sunday's system, dropping temps into the 60s for
Mon and Tues at most locations, colder as usual at higher
elevations. Went ahead and added a little patchy frost to the grids
Mon AM in the Snake Plain and other valleys, but Tues AM continues
to be the period of greatest concern. The combination of clear
skies/good radiational cooling, light winds, and N-NE flow may
result in low temps reaching the 28-34 degree range across most of
the Snake Plain as well as all of our northern and eastern valleys.
This may result in a more widespread frost, and Frost Advisories or
Freeze Watches are possible as we get closer. Additional, more
patchy frost is possible Wed AM. Otherwise, long-range models are no
longer suggesting any blocking ridge by mid to late week, instead
keeping SE Idaho in closer proximity to an active NW flow shortwave
track down the west side of a long-wave trough over the Central US.
Several of these disturbances ride down the trough, but so far
precip is expected to remain north and east of our area, and we
maintain a dry forecast. A stronger low pressure trough may approach
the region by Sat eve, but with some shifting in model solutions
noted and this system being so far out, am not ready to jump on
adding any showers to the forecast just yet. For the overwhelming
majority of SE the coming week should be dry and pleasant, with only
gradually/slowly warming temps. - KSmith/RS
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest winds 10 to 20 kts in the Upper Snake Plain (KIDA and
KPIH) this afternoon. Mainly SCT to BKN high clouds until this
evening, then SCT middle level clouds this evening at KIDA and
KDIJ. With upper trough passage on Sunday, VCSH expected at KSUN
22/18-24Z, but remaining VFR. - RS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry front develops roughly over the central mountains early
this afternoon and propagates into the Arco Desert by early
evening. Gusty winds expected this afternoon over the Lemhi and
Lost River Range with humidity below 15 percent. In the Caribou
Forest, winds expected to develop late afternoon but should still
see gusts to 25 mph. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect from
1300 to 2000 hours. The main disturbance moving inland on Sunday
will bring a chance of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms to the Salmon-Challis NF and northern Sawtooth NF
during the morning hours, then move quickly into the Targhee NF
during the afternoon and early evening. By midnight Sunday night
the entire event should be east of the state. Precipitation should
be less than 0.10 inch. Northwesterly flow pattern persists
through the rest of the week. A few showers may develop along the
Divide Monday, and there is low confidence in showers developing
in the Salmon area next Saturday. - RS
&&
.AIR STAGNATION...
A continued progressive SW flow today along with surface winds of 15-
20 MPH gusting up to 25 MPH should continue to result in efficient
transport and no major smoke/haze or degraded air quality issues
across SE Idaho. Model guidance hints at the potential for a slight
increase in smoke across the Snake Plain tomorrow (Sun), but a cold
front Sun eve will produce breezy conditions, a wind shift into the
W-NW, and usher in another fresh airmass. Thus, any smoke/air
quality issues should be localized and tied to local active fires.
The latest forecasts from Idaho DEQ generally keep air quality in
the "Good" or GREEN category for the next 3 days region-wide, and we
concur with this projection. - KSmith/RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ413-422-476.
&&