What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 9, 4:20 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 9, 4:20 PM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front approaching from the northwest today will stall
across the region Friday into the weekend. Seasonably warm
temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms will continue. An upper level disturbance will
move across the area on Monday leading to drier weather on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 5pm EDT Thursday: Some thunder this afternoon, primarily
moving southeast along a line from Jackson County NC to Laurens
County SC. Expectations are for these storms to remain active for
the next several hours while moving southeast. Other storms are
expected to move in from the west over the next couple hours. These
storms have been sub-severe in TN and GA thus far, and are expected
to weaken some as they cross the mountains and outrun upper forcing
support. However, some thunder will persist over western parts of
the CWA through the evening, with CAMs showing rapid declines after
9pm.
Friday, a fairly vigorous vort max will drift from the Ozarks to TN
Valley, entering the southern Appalachians around 00z Sat. This
feature may enhance convective chances in the aftn and early evening
hours. CAMs that go out thru 00z Saturday all show fairly numerous
cells with some multi-cell structures, mainly across the NC zones.
Still looks only moderately unstable (CAPE 1000-2000 J/kg), but
shear increases to around 20-30 kts in the aftn. I have bumped up
PoPs into the likely range across most of the NC zones. Chc PoPs
will be carried south. Severe threat will be marginal, with winds
being the main threat. Highs will be near to slightly above normal,
mainly in the 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday: At the start of the short term period, a
very large upper ridge will be in place over the rockies, with a
trough over eastern Canada lifting northeast, and a midlevel
shortwave pushing across the southern Appalachians. Lingering
surface boundary stretched across the Piedmont will remain in place.
As the shortwave works its way across the mountain, lingering
convection from Friday afternoon should spill over into the early
part of the period and isolated showers may continue overnight
especially across NC zones. Of interest is that the little shortwave
looks like it might induce lee low development across the Piedmont
on the former boundary, which may linger across the area into
Saturday. This initial shortwave will damp and lift northeast toward
New England Friday night into Saturday as a secondary wave deepens
and stretches from the Great Lakes to a lingering weakness over the
Southern Plains. CAPEs look a little lower on Saturday afternoon and
so with the loss of more forcing the Piedmont should see slightly
lower (but still higher than diurnal) convection, but should see
more widespread thunderstorms across the mountains especially with
the upslope contribution into the southwest mountains from flow
around the weak lee low.
The Great Lakes trough deepens and cuts off over the Midwest as we
move through Saturday night and Sunday, and with the southwest flow
aloft over our area plus little impulses and a jetlet riding around
the base of the trough, there should again be plenty of upper
forcing for convection to fire area-wide, though focused mainly in
the mountains. As usual, the NAM is a little more bullish with CAPE
recovery in the afternoon whereas the GFS keeps generally <700J/kg
across the area (NAM over twice that), so some uncertainty about how
intense the storms might be, but as with the past few days and again
Saturday, with the upper flow, storms should continue to move to
help mitigate flash flooding concerns, though by this point the
increasingly saturated soils may be problematic with any convection.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday: The Midwest upper low will slowly begin
to push east as we start the work week, with the trough axis passing
across our area Monday night into Tuesday morning. Expect a decrease
in convective activity from west to east on Monday, and should see a
relative lull in activity (there will still be convection, but
generally below the typical diurnal trend) Tuesday into Wednesday on
the upstream side of the trough as weak ridging tries to build back
in. Another shortwave will push toward the mid MS Valley by the end
of the period with a corresponding increase in pops. Expect fairly
seasonal temperatures through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Current trends on radar and vis sat imagery
are in line with expected convective evolution this aftn thru this
evening. Deeper convection is starting to fire across the NC
mountains, with a minimum across the piedmont. Within the WNW flow,
streamers are forming off the mountains in three enhanced cumulus
bands. One of them is setting up just north of KGSP, and pretty much
all the guidance agrees on TSRA forming in this area within the next
couple hours. So VCTS will be carried at KGSP/KGMU for the first few
hours of the TAF. VCTS will also be carried at KAVL and KAND.
Limited instability across the NC piedmont results in only an
isolated chc of a TSRA at KHKY and KCLT, so no mention will be
carried at those sites. Convection will wane after sunset, leaving
patchy mid clouds overnight. Fog and stratus should be mainly
confined to the mountain valleys. Will prevail an IFR cig at KAVL
late tonight.
On Friday, a return of greater convective coverage is expected,
especially across western NC sites. Will add a PROB30 for Friday
aftn at KCLT.
Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys. A possible break in aftn convection is possible on
Tuesday, as some drier air works in from the west.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 83% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% Med 61% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 94% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARKHazardous weather outlook, Aug 9, 2:54 AM EST, 14 hours 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop around the region
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest
across the mountains. Any of the thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and
locally heavy rainfall.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Thunderstorm coverage will be fairly high each afternoon and evening
from Friday through Monday. The main impacts will be cloud-to-
ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated flooding
will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 9, 4:48 PM EST, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
548 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ001-004-092230-
Franklin GA-Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
548 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...SOUTH CENTRAL RABUN AND SOUTHERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...
At 547 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles northeast of Clarkesville to 5 miles
south of Cleveland, and moving southeast at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Clarkesville, Seneca, Cornelia, Baldwin, Westminster,
Demorest, Mount Airy, Alto and Avalon.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and torrential rainfall rates
up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3454 8362 3458 8364 3461 8365 3462 8364
3464 8365 3480 8344 3466 8293 3435 8339
3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8347 3449 8354
3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 301DEG 21KT 3472 8345 3452 8373
08Local storm report, Aug 9, 4:49 PM EST, 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE TRAVELERS REST 34.94N 82.43W
08/09/2018 M3.30 INCH GREENVILLE SC MESONET
&&Local storm report, Aug 9, 5:25 PM EST, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
625 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0610 PM HAIL 2 NNE FOUNTAIN INN 34.72N 82.18W
08/09/2018 E1.00 INCH GREENVILLE SC PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER (1.00 IN) SIZE HAIL
&&Special weather statement, Aug 9, 5:29 PM EST, 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
629 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
SCZ007-012-092315-
Laurens SC-Spartanburg SC-
629 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
LAURENS AND SOUTH CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 10 miles northwest of Laurens, or near Gray Court,
moving southeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Gray Court, Woodruff, Fountain Inn, Enoree, Ora and Hickory
Tavern.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph, pea size
hail and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3460 8223 3468 8219 3476 8208 3460 8185
3459 8185 3460 8184 3456 8179 3437 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 319DEG 14KT 3463 8210
08Local storm report, Aug 9, 5:37 PM EST, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW ORA 34.60N 82.00W
08/09/2018 LAURENS SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN ALONG LINCOLN AND ORA ROADS
&&Local storm report, Aug 9, 5:42 PM EST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW ORA 34.63N 82.01W
08/09/2018 LAURENS SC UTILITY COMPANY
LINES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGE ALONG GARRETT AND SLIPPERY
ROCK ROADS
&&