Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developed across the Georgia Blue Ridge during the afternoon. One storm produced brief damaging winds near Tallulah Gorge.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developed across the Georgia Blue Ridge during the afternoon. One storm produced brief damaging winds near Tallulah Gorge.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 9:55 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1055 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will persist over the area today, but with weak
upper-level disturbances arriving from the west this afternoon and
evening. A cold front will then approach from the northwest tonight
into Thursday and stall somewhere in or near the forecast area
through late week. Seasonably warm temperatures and scattered to
numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the end of the week. The front will persist in the
vicinity through the weekend, with deeper moisture returning from
the south for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM...Forecast is on track per latest obs and the various
CAMs. The 12z GSO sounding shows potential for over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE. Skies have cleared out for most of the CWFA, and strong
insolation should result in highs in the lower 90s this aftn. So we
still expect moderate to strong instability this aftn with enough
flow to carry storms along. Convection should be triggered by
outflows across TN and mountain-top convergence early this aftn,
then drift west across the rest of the CWFA late aftn into early
evening. Only minor tweaks were needed to the temps and PoP grids
with this update. Severe threat still looks marginal, for mainly
damaging winds. But cannot rule out isolated large hail. Activity
should wane/exit east by late evening per model consensus. PoPs will
linger in the NC mountains due to persistent westerly upslope flow
and a digging trough aloft.
Previous discussion...
Still expect little airmass change today with PWATs remaining
between 1.75-2" and light SWly flow continuing through the day.
Afternoon instability will also be similar to previous days, a
moderate 2000-2500 J/kg. The main difference with today will be some
upper support arriving near the peak of diurnal convection as a
shortwave rounds the base of an approaching upper trough. More stout
SWly flow aloft will also set up through the day and the approaching
frontal boundary will provide a low-level convergence zone,
suggesting that severe potential (storms containing strong winds in
particular) will be greater today that the past few days. CIPS
analogs indicate increased level and coverage of severe
probabilities this afternoon as well. With deep-layer effective
shear on the order of 25-30kt, expect some clusters/linear
organization will be the most likely mode of convection after early
afternoon convective initiation in the higher terrain. With the best
upper support probably arriving close to 00Z, have also extended
elevated pops later into the evening across the NC mountains and
Piedmont areas, agreeing with trends in updraft strength/coverage
seen in the 00Z HREF. Having said all that, new SPC day 1 marginal
risk looks well-placed.
The only other concern for the near term would be hydro...the WPC
day 1 marginal risk for the mountainous parts of our area seems
reasonable considering high PWATs, upper support, and good
convective coverage in the afternoon and evening hours. Though
storms this afternoon should be moving at a pretty good clip,
rainfall rates could become an issue with any convection that does
develop. Given that, isolated hydro issues can't be ruled out
anywhere in our forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday: The numerical models feature relatively
good agreement on the upper flow pattern for Thursday through
Friday. A decent shortwave is expected to carve out across MO/AR
Thursday and then move east across TN/KY through Friday, and finally
through the southern Appalachians Friday night through Saturday.
Meanwhile, a surface front will remain stalled somewhere in or near
the southern tier of the forecast area. Very little drying is
expected with the frontal boundary and lingering boundary layer
moisture will fire mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day
- with a mainly mountain focus. Instability could be a bit less on
Friday and Saturday, but the forcing will be better with the
approaching/passing wave. Continued high humidity will push heat
index values to 95 or better across the southeast half each
afternoon despite slightly cooler maximum temperatures than observed
earlier in the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday: A closed upper low pressure system
developing over the southern shores of the Great Lakes on Sunday
will amplify an associated trough axis between the MS River Valley
and the Appalachians on Monday. The improved southerly flow should
permit precipitable water values to peak in the Sunday to Monday
timeframe, with the greatest associated risk of flooding. The peak
wind shear should be Monday afternoon just ahead of the upper trough
axis, but confidence on the timing is too low to pin down a severe
thunderstorm threat just yet. Model differences increase Monday
night through Tuesday on how quickly the base of the trough crosses
our region, but with the GFS now trending toward the more
progressive ECMWF solution. This would promote some modest drying on
Tuesday. Expect continued above climo PoPs Sunday and Monday, as
well as near normal maxes and above normal mins through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With little change in airmass this AM from
the past few nights, mountain restrictions are likely through the
morning, with a very small chance of some patchy MVFR fog at all
other sites for the next couple hours. KAVL has already been
bouncing from MVFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning, and expect the
more pessimistic conditions to dominate until around 13Z.
Thunderstorms will make an appearance again this afternoon, most
likely with greater coverage and intensity than past days.
Therefore, all sites feature a PM tempo for TSRA. Surface winds will
increase slightly during the day as well, with more prevailing
southwesterly flow of near 5 kts and higher gusts expected in any
thunderstorms or thunderstorm outflows.
Outlook: Typical mid-summer conditions are fcst the next several
days. Diurnal, scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly in the
afternoons, with coverage increasing toward the weekend. Associated
morning restrictions will be possible each day, especially in
mountain valleys.
Confidence Table...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% Med 78%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 88%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/Carroll
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CarrollHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-090845- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Polk Mountains- 439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains and northern foothills of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms will develop across the mountains by early afternoon and increase in coverage before racing east through early evening. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce cloud- to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers. In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-508-510- SCZ001>014-019-090845- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 439 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont and southern foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from the west this afternoon and then race eastward across the piedmont through the evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will have the potential to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Isolated flooding may develop in any locations impacted by multiple showers or thunderstorms. In addition, a few of the thunderstorms could become severe this afternoon and evening, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. In addition, Heat Index values should reach 95 to 100 degrees this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly high each afternoon and evening from Thursday through next Monday. The main impacts will be cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. Isolated flooding will be possible each day as the rainfall totals accrue. Heat Index values of 95 to 100 will be likely once again on Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office. HG
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
100 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
GAZ010-017-081730-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-
100 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM AND
WESTERN RABUN COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...
At 1259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Hiawassee, or near Moccasin Creek State Park,
moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Lake Burton, Moccasin Creek State
Park, Lakemont, Black Rock Mountain State Park, Lake Rabun, Dillard
and Tallulah Gorge State Park.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake Burton is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground lightning
and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.
&&
LAT...LON 3482 8365 3484 8366 3488 8366 3490 8363
3491 8363 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355
3496 8355 3498 8339 3474 8336 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 268DEG 17KT 3487 8360
LANESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
128 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
GAZ010-SCZ001-081800-
Rabun GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
128 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
RABUN AND NORTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...
At 127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Clayton, moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Walhalla, Mountain City, Tiger, Lakemont, Oconee State Park,
Black Rock Mountain State Park, Mountain Rest, Long Creek and Pine
Mountain.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3500 8313 3500 8311 3501 8308 3474 8307
3478 8348 3494 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 267DEG 17KT 3487 8337
LANESpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
GAZ010-017-SCZ001-081800-
Rabun GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
135 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HABERSHAM...
SOUTHWESTERN RABUN AND WEST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...
At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Clayton, or near Lake Rabun, moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park, Seed
Lake, Turnerville and Long Creek.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.
LAT...LON 3479 8354 3477 8323 3464 8320 3466 8330
3467 8331 3467 8332 3468 8332 3468 8334
3469 8334 3467 8337 3470 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 270DEG 22KT 3475 8343
LANEThe Greer radar (KGSP), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:47 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported trees blown down along Highway 15 near Tallulah Gorge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 781451.