Hail in Georgia, April 26, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
802 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight, with rain
expected across the area. High pressure will build across our area
this weekend and persist into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 PM EDT: Band of light/moderate precip continues to work
its way eastward across the western Piedmont of the Carolinas,
mainly over the I-77 corridor as of 2330 UTC. Much less coverage
was noted to the west across the wrn Upstate/NC mountains/northeast
GA, but the approach of the cold core upper low, with its colder
temps aloft and greater instability, was fueling a resurgence of
shower/tstorm coverage. Precip prob will be updated according
to radar trends...higher east and lower west, at least until
scattered/numerous showers work their way back in with the cold
air aloft. Temp trends have been sorted out using the latest
near term guidance. The chances for severe weather have dwindled,
but will not rule out an isolated hailer with the cold air aloft,
mainly over the mtns/foothills. Precip rates also have not been
much to get excited about over the east, which is good considering
the favorable antecedent conditions in those areas.

Otherwise...weak deformation zone forcing behind the departing low
may keep showers going through late tonight, especially along I-77.

The upper low will open up early Friday as it moves out, but the
upper trof axis will not cross the region until after sunset. A few
vort spokes will move overhead to provide some impetus for shallow
convection with some daytime heating on Friday, and the models
develop some weak sfc-based instability. Cannot rule out widely
scattered showers east of the mtns in the afternoon, so that was
added to the fcst. High temps will generally be a few degrees warmer
as compared to today, given the lack of clouds and widespread rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thu: A deep trough will linger over the Eastern
Seaboard through the weekend. Initially downsloping low-level
flow, coupled with an already dry airmass, will keep conditions
dry and with near-normal temps Friday night through midday
Saturday. However, a fast-moving cold front and shortwave will
arrive late in the day and usher in some changes. Along the spine
of the Appalachians, a shallow saturated layer is shown to develop
on prog soundings, warranting a brief slight chance for rain there
by late afternoon. Dry and cooler conditions return Saturday night
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Low temps Sunday
morning will be near freezing over the middle to higher elevations
of the mountains. The airmass change will not have fully occurred
yet, so sfc moisture should be sufficient for frost. Max temps
will fall back to about 5-7 degrees below normal Sunday aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday: High pressure will settle across the region
on Sunday night leading to clear skies and nearly calm winds. This
will be the coolest night in the extended period with frost/freeze
conditions expected in the mountains. Morning lows in the Piedmont
should range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

The center of the high will move off the southeast coast for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Expect plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming to
just above normal for this time of year. The above normal conditions
will continue into next Thursday as the high remains in place across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A band of precip will move east across KCLT
at the beginning of the period. With the passage of this band,
in general, an MVFR visibility in light rain with a VFR-level
ceiling has been the prevailing condition, with a temporary IFR
vis restriction in the heavier precip. Wind will be light NW over
the wrn Piedmont. In the wake of the precip band, the rain-cooled
moist air was supporting the development of IFR stratus deck east
of the mtns with a light/variable wind. This will be incorporated
into the fcst at all TAF sites east of the mtns, beginning at 02Z
at KCLT, but in reality the IFR could develop before then. The
general idea is that IFR would develop temporarily through late
evening, then scatter out for a few hours, before returning as
an IFR stratus and/or fog restriction in the pre-dawn hours. The
weak sfc low reflection will pass early in the day on Friday,
such that by mid/late morning the low cloud ceiling should mix
out and wind will come around to W/SW.

Outlook: A dry cold front will approach from the northwest early
in the weekend, with much drier and solidly VFR conditions likely
persisting well into early next week.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High  92%     Med   70%     High  80%     High 100%
KGSP       High  83%     High  85%     High  91%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   72%     High  85%     High  92%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   79%     High  81%     High  87%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   77%     Med   71%     High  91%     High 100%
KAND       Med   73%     Med   78%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
442 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-272045-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
442 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of northeast Georgia,
Piedmont North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through the Piedmont this evening.
All of the thunderstorms will be capable of cloud-to-ground
lightning. Also, a few of the thunderstorms may become severe, with
damaging winds, large hail, and localized flooding being the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Severe weather spotters are encouraged to pass along any reports of
wind damage or hail to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-272045-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
442 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this evening. Cloud-to-ground
lightning will be the main threat with these thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
806 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

GAZ017-270030-
Habersham GA-
806 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT HABERSHAM
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 805 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 6 miles east of Cleveland, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clarkesville, Demorest, Cornelia, Hollywood, Turnerville and
Batesville.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
      3467 8365 3471 8364 3474 8362 3477 8356
      3475 8355 3475 8354 3474 8353 3473 8349
      3475 8343 3463 8339 3455 8343 3451 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 250DEG 15KT 3462 8365

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
840 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

GAZ017-270115-
Habersham GA-
840 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT HABERSHAM
COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 840 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning over Clarkesville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clarkesville, Demorest, Tallulah Falls, Cornelia, Hollywood and
Turnerville.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8366 3454 8362 3455 8362 3458 8364
      3459 8364 3460 8365 3462 8364 3465 8366
      3469 8364 3474 8342 3473 8340 3473 8339
      3464 8338 3456 8342 3450 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 246DEG 23KT 3461 8353

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
900 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

GAZ017-018-026-SCZ001-270130-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
900 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 900 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Toccoa, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Gumlog, Martin, Avalon, Lavonia, Tallulah Falls, Hollywood,
Boydville, Eastanolee and Turnerville.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8353 3476 8321 3461 8315 3460 8317
      3459 8317 3459 8316 3458 8316 3457 8314
      3456 8314 3456 8312 3445 8307 3444 8308
      3445 8339 3446 8340 3447 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 255DEG 32KT 3456 8336

KRENTZ