Drought in Florida, April 3 to 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
743 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR with sea breezes expected to develop and push inland later
today. Showers will be possible over the interior which should
remain away from the terminals. In the evening, as the sea breezes
retreat back to the coast, there could be some remnant convection
near the terminals and lingering along the coast overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure is forecast to hold on for one more day, before
being pushed eastward by an approaching trough. There is some weak
ridging at 500mb as well. With a fairly dry airmass over the area,
only a few showers are possible, mainly over the western interior,
where the sea breezes are forecast to collide.

By Wednesday, the upper level trough, and a surface cold front
will turn the wind more southerly in the morning, then westerly
in the afternoon. This will allow for a chance of some shower
activity over the eastern half of South Florida for Wednesday
afternoon.

The main low associated with the front is forecast to move over
the Great Lakes region, northeast over Canada, north of New
England. The associated cold front stretches to the south
southwest, from New England , down the eastern seaboard, and
across the Florida Panhandle, into the Gulf. As it progresses
towards South Florida, the main low drags the majority of the
energy associated with the front, away from the area. However, the
high behind the front should be strong enough to push this front
through the area, perhaps, just into the Florida Straits. This
would allow for a northerly wind over the region late Wednesday
night through Thursday. Then the wind is progged to become more
northeasterly to easterly, persisting through the latter half of
the week. This is also forecast to bring some moisture back to the
area, keeping a slight chance to a chance of showers in the
forecast for South Florida for the latter half of the week. The
GFS is indicating there may be enough moisture and instability to
allow for an isolated thunderstorm, mainly over the Atlantic
waters and along the Atlantic coast. However, it is only a slight
chance of a few strikes at this time.

The high behind the front sets up to the east of the area,
bringing a southerly flow to South Florida by Saturday morning.
This will keep a flow of moisture into the region, but keep most
of the chances for any showers towards the Lake region for the
weekend.

Models begin to disagree on a system that may form for the
beginning of next week, off the North Florida/Georgia coast. The
ECMWF has the system forming by Monday morning, whereas the GFS
holds off until Wednesday. With a system forming this close to the
area, it may be enough to bring better chances of convection for
next week, mainly Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

MARINE...
Mostly benign marine conditions for the week. A northerly flow
will develop behind a mid week cold front, but the wind speeds are
forecast to be between 10 and 15 kts, which would cause seas to
build in the Gulf Stream, but only to around 5 or 6 feet. There is
a chance for some showers activity for the latter half of the
week. The weekend is forecast to see a chance of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, mainly over the Atlantic waters.

With an easterly wind between 10 and 15 kts, and rip currents
being reported yesterday, will keep a moderate risk of rip
currents in the forecast for today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  83  71  86  68 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  82  73  84  71 /  10  20  20  20
Miami            84  74  86  71 /  10  20  20  20
Naples           86  70  84  70 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

AVIATION...02/RAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
419 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
032300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
419 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: East wind of 10 to 15 mph will lead to a moderate risk
of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

Waterspouts: a few waterspouts are possible over the Atlantic waters
mainly during the morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The rip current risk will diminish at the Atlantic beaches on
Wednesday, but increase once again late Friday through the upcoming
weekend as winds once again become east to southeast.

There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday along parts of Southeast Florida and the
Atlantic waters, and again on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami
website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Molleda