Tornado in Florida, April 23, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
856 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The low pressure system center is just to the north of the
state this evening, with the cold front still well back to
the west. Afternoon convection that mainly impacted the
extreme eastern counties today is winding down, but a few
pre-frontal showers have developed over the last hour across
the greater Tampa Bay region and the adjacent coastal
waters. Have some low pops in through the overnight hours as
well as some patchy fog and this looks on track. The front
will gradually push south through the area through the day
Tuesday with high pressure ridging in for mid-week. No
updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR or lower will impact the terminals overnight with
some patchy fog also developing. Ceilings will lift through
the late morning, and then gradually clear out through the
afternoon as the front moves through. A few afternoon
storms will be possible across the southern terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
The front will push through the area tomorrow with winds
turning to the W/NW as high pressure builds in from the
west. Wind speeds should remain AOB 15 knots through the
period. Current forecast is on track and have little change
for the update.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  71  78  68  79 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  72  84  67  83 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  69  84  64  83 /  30  10  10  10
SRQ  70  76  68  77 /  30  20  10  10
BKV  63  78  63  80 /  20   0  20  10
SPG  71  80  68  80 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...24/Hubbard
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
552 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-232200-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
552 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today into this
evening. Stronger storms may produce frequent lightning, strong
gusty winds, and torrential rainfall leading to minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms will remain possible through Tuesday as a strong
upper level storm system moves across the southeastern U.S. While
organized severe storms appear unlikely, a few strong storms may
occur with frequent lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty winds the
main concerns. Drier conditions will build in by mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

McKaughan