Rip Currents in Florida, April 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
157 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR continues to be expected as the east coast sea breeze pushes
further inland and the Gulf sea breeze has started its trek
inland. Showers are expected to develop over inland Southwest
Florida but should not cause issues for any of the terminals
unless a few remnant showers survive as the sea breezes retreat
back to the coast this evening. Wind should become lighter
overnight before picking back up after sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1103 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018/

UPDATE...
Morning convection along the offshore Atlantic surface boundary
has dissipated as the boundary pushed onshore with the development
of the sea breeze. Visible satellite imagery shows the advance of
the Atlantic sea breeze inland. High resolution guidance still
shows a late start for showers later in the afternoon and evening
over inland Southwest Florida. The forecast is accounting well for
these evident trends in the observed conditions and the short term
guidance, so no update is anticipated through midday. Have a great
Monday!

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today-Wednesday night)...broad high pressure will
continue to build across the region as the remnants of a frontal
boundary dissipate over South Florida. The sfc ridge associated
with the high will bring establishing easterly flow today and
Tuesday.

Model solutions depict a weak short wave feature migrating across
the SE states on Wednesday, which pushes a sfc frontal boundary
into northern FL, and moving across South Florida Wednesday night
into Thursday. Models show the best dynamic support for this
event remaining well north of the area with mainly veering winds
to the north and then northeast behind the FROPA. Also, models
show only a slight increase in showers as the air mass do not
become unstable or moist enough to support wide spread rain nor
strong convection. Therefore, expect mainly afternoon sea breezes
becoming the focal point for any showers that form today and
Tuesday, then slightly higher chances on Wednesday with the FROPA.

The front should not have a sensible effect over temperatures,
which should remain near normals. Afternoon highs will be in the
low-mid 80s, while morning lows will drop into the mid-upper 60s,
except near the Atlantic metro areas where lows will remain around
70.

Long term (Thursday-Sunday)...similar pattern continues through
the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend with mainly
afternoon showers, driven by daytime heating and developing sea
breezes. There will be no significant changes with temperatures
associated with the aforementioned front, with afternoon highs
in the low-mid 80s.

MARINE...weak high pressure remains in place across the region
with mainly moderate easterly winds prevailing through much of
the week. A few stray showers are possible the next few days. Wind
should remain in the 10 to 15 knots range with seas 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  82  70  84 /  40  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  72  81  73  83 /  10  10  20  30
Miami            71  83  72  84 /  10  10  20  30
Naples           67  84  68  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

AVIATION...02/RAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1051 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
030300-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1051 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A moderate risk of rip currents may persist through mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

RAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
833 AM EDT MON APR 02 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 AM     WATER SPOUT      5 E DELRAY BEACH        26.46N  80.01W
04/02/2018                   AMZ650             FL   PUBLIC

            A WATER SPOUT WAS REPORTED BY A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC
            OFFSHORE DELRAY BEACH ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1800021

MFL