A lightning strike ignited a wildfire on Moccasin Mesa in Mesa Verde National Park.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike ignited a wildfire on Moccasin Mesa in Mesa Verde National Park.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 10:43 AM MST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1143 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Several weak disturbance will move through the forecast area through the short term period. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon as a weak disturbance moves across the northern half of the forecast area. Gusty winds to 40 mph, brief heavy rain and small hall can be expected with the stronger storms into the evening hours. Short-range models are also showing another wave moving through late this evening into early Sunday with the best focus over the north with an uptick in showers and thunderstorm expected before diminishing by dawn. Conditions dry out slightly on Sunday but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours with the best focus over the higher terrain. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Drying pattern setting back up with a strong ridge of high pressure building back over the Great Basin. This will bring hot and very dry conditions by mid-week with precipitable water values tumbling below a half inch, or near ridiculously low levels for early August across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Before the ridge becomes fully established, there's still enough lingering moisture to kick-off isolated to scattered diurnally driven storms favoring the higher terrain. Storms will become less efficient in the rain department as the low level moisture gets scoured out with winds becoming more of a concern, although that will take a couple of days before we get to that point. Temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees above normal under this ridge with guidance numbers looking a tad low at this point. So nudged extended temps upward a few degrees in most areas. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through late tonight as a weak upper level disturbance passes through. Expect gusty outflow winds to 40kts, small hail, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, both in cloud and cloud to ground. Local MVFR CIGS will occur in the vicinity of the stronger storms. The showers are expected to diminish by 12Z Sunday, although another round will develop Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 Drying across northwest Colorado by Sunday may lead to a few hours of marginal critical fire weather conditions. However, fire weather highlights are not expected at this time. In addition, the upcoming week will see a strong ridge of high pressure building across the Great Basin. Very dry and hot conditions are expected with the potential for poor overnight humidity recoveries between Tuesday and Friday of next week. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MPM LONG TERM...JAM AVIATION...JDC FIRE WEATHER...MPM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 501 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-051115- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 501 AM MDT Sat Aug 4 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon with the gusts to 40 mph, brief heavy and small hail possible in the stronger storms. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late this evening into the early morning hours with the best focus across the north. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain on Sunday. Dry and hot conditions will develop during the work week with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along the Continental Divide. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Moccasin Mesa Fire began due to lightning ignition on Moccasin Mesa in Mesa Verde National Park and grew to a total of 185 acres before it was contained.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 766245.