Heavy rain brought flooding to northeast Arkansas late in February.
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The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to northeast Arkansas late in February.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 2:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 247 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday At the surface, a cold front was located over southwest Missouri, extending into far northwest Arkansas to just west of Fort Smith. In the upper levels, a ridge was located near the eastern CONUS, while a trough was over the west. The ridge will shift slightly over the next 24 hours, which will allow the front to move ever so slowly across the state. Rainfall will become fairly widespread tonight, with scattered thunderstorms possible, and this will continue into Wednesday night/early Thursday. The highly amplified flow remains out of the southwest, which is giving us a healthy dose of Pacific moisture as the polar and subtropical jets converge. Ahead of the surface front, some pretty serious moisture advection is going on, with dewpoints in the 60s. Several impulses will move through in the mean flow and interact with the front. The result will be a continued chance for rainfall through the short term periods. With the overabundance of moisture, and the tendency of storms to form and move over the same areas, heavy rain will be a concern. We are continuing the original Flood Watch, and expanding it to include our remaining counties in the southeast. That portion will begin at 12Z Wednesday and go through 18Z Thursday. At this time, it looks as though the heaviest rainfall will be tonight into early Thursday, with two to five inches possible. Through Saturday, though, most areas look set to receive five to seven inches of rain, with the highest totals in the vicinity of the Interstate 30 corridor where there could be localized heavier amounts. One more thing...with the front advancing into Arkansas later tonight and early Wednesday morning, temperatures could fall to near freezing in the northwest, albeit briefly. So, when you look at the forecast, don't scratch or shake your head in disbelief when you see a mention of brief freezing rain in portions of the Ozarks late tonight or early Wednesday. As I said, it's going to be brief. With warm ground and surfaces, no impacts are expected. The initial heavy rain episode will wind down a little bit on Thursday, as the front sinks south of the state. However, the boundary will move back to the north a bit late Thursday into Friday, with more systems moving through and interacting with it. This will keep rain chances in the forecast, with additional heavy rain possible, especially in the north and west Thursday night into Friday night. On Saturday, the front will move even further north, with low pressure dragging a stronger front into the region. This particular day will need to be watched, as parameters are lining up for potentially strong storms. A limiting factor will be cloud cover, and timing of the system. More for another day and another forecast discussion I suppose. && .LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Tuesday By Sunday, an upper trough will be ejecting out of the plains and moving to the northeast. This will eventually end our rain period. Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas. With an upper ridge to the southeast, the southwest flow will continue over the state through Tuesday. The cold front will exit southeast Arkansas Saturday night. High pressure and drier air will move into the area Sunday behind the front. Dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday. Models indicate rain chances increase Tuesday as a short wave moves through the area. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next seven days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 44 45 38 52 / 100 100 90 40 Camden AR 59 62 47 58 / 100 100 100 60 Harrison AR 33 35 34 50 / 100 60 50 40 Hot Springs AR 52 54 43 54 / 100 100 90 50 Little Rock AR 52 53 43 53 / 100 100 100 50 Monticello AR 61 63 48 60 / 60 100 100 80 Mount Ida AR 47 49 43 55 / 100 100 90 50 Mountain Home AR 36 37 34 51 / 100 70 70 40 Newport AR 46 48 39 52 / 100 100 100 40 Pine Bluff AR 55 58 45 56 / 90 100 100 70 Russellville AR 46 47 41 53 / 100 90 80 40 Searcy AR 48 50 41 52 / 100 100 100 50 Stuttgart AR 52 55 43 54 / 90 100 100 60 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through late Wednesday night FOR Baxter-Boone-Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner- Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson- Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita- Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp- Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell. Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning FOR Arkansas-Bradley-Calhoun-Cleveland-Desha-Drew-Jefferson-Lincoln. && Short Term...57 / Long Term...51
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1012 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211100- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard- Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway- Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland- Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant- Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita- Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 1012 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the period but become much more widespread and heavier over the northwest part of the area by late this afternoon, and over much of the remainder of the area tonight. With high levels of moisture in the atmosphere, and the tendency of storms to form and move over the same areas, locally heavy rainfall is a concern, especially tonight, with flash flooding becoming possible. Some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may briefly become strong or possibly severe. This would be most likely in areas along and west of the Interstate 30 and Highway 67 corridor. Any storm that becomes severe will be capable of producing gusty winds in excess of 60 MPH. With high wind energy available in the atmosphere, as well as winds turning with height, there will also be a low risk of a tornado or two, primarily in the evening hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday as a cold front slowly moves through. Several more inches of rain will be possible from Little Rock to the north and west through Wednesday...before the axis of heavy rainfall shifts to the southeast Wednesday night into Thursday as the cold front moves through. Rainfall amounts through Thursday will range from two to three inches across the southeast third of the state to in excess of five inches across central and northwest sections of the state. Some locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in these areas. As a result, the threat for flash and river flooding will increase over time even with some areas across the northern and western portion of the state in a drought at this time. Additional heavy rainfall will return to the forecast by late Thursday through next weekend as the front moves back to the north. Additional rainfall amounts of two or more inches will be possible across some portion of the state. This will result in storm total rainfall amounts through the weekend of three to five inches across the far southeast portion of the state...and five to seven inches (with localized heavier amounts) across a large portion of Arkansas further north and west. As a result...the threat for widespread river and flash flooding will continue to increase throughout the week and into the weekend. The front will finally move through the state Saturday but the latest data is indicating that some severe weather could be possible before the system exits the region. .Spotter Information Statement... Due to the low severe weather threat, spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 57
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain brought flooding to the Cache River.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 742285.