More to come later.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
More to come later.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 6, 5:45 AM CST, 7 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018 .UPDATE... Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion. && .AVIATION... VRF prevails through the period with winds generally out of the S to SW through the day. Some gusts to 15 kts are possible before winds subside after sunset. Low confidence in TS today, although isolated TS will be possible across the eastern half of the area. Included VCTS accordingly through 07/02Z. SCT to BKN cigs aoa 5 kft should begin dissipating after sunset, but clouds will begin increasing from the north at the end of the period ahead of an approaching system. Cooper && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 443 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018) SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night 08Z objective analysis continues showing broad upper ridging across roughly the southern half of the CONUS, while the more active northern stream remains across the northern tier of states. Persistent surface ridging is anchored across the southeastern states and western Atlantic, yielding broad southerly surface flow across the forecast area. A slow-moving cold front was noted across the Central Plains and this feature is expected to slowly sag south, reaching northern AR by or just beyond the end of the period. Rain/thunder chances will increase as a result and a more isolated flash flood threat may exist where heavy, convective rainfall occurs. For today... under the influence of high pressure at the surface and aloft, expecting temps to warm back into the low-to-mid 90s F with slightly cooler temps in the higher terrain across the Ozarks. Despite large-scale moisture transport advecting rich Gulf moisture into the area, forecast soundings indicate strong boundary layer mixing through the afternoon hours, suggesting many areas will see dewpoint temps as low as the mid-60s F. A notable exception to this will be across eastern AR, where strong evapotranspiration will boost dewpoints into the mid-to-upper 70s F, above what guidance suggests but in line with what has been observed so far this summer. Still, any instances of heat advisory level criteria (105 F) should remain limited enough to avoid the need for headlines today, although heat indices will largely be in the low 100s F this afternoon. Attention then turns to the aforementioned frontal boundary and what is shaping up to be a soggy week ahead, especially Tuesday and beyond. Flow aloft should become more amplified through mid-week as upper ridging across the Desert Southwest builds north and the axis of upper ridging across the local area becomes more NW-to-SE oriented. This will allow for gradual deepening of the upper trough across the central CONUS, although model guidance remains inconsistent resolving the magnitude, timing, and position of upper impulses embedded within the broader trough structure. Either way, this evolution will encourage the front to slowly approach as favorable forcing aloft and near the surface increases. Broad anticyclonic flow around the Bermuda high to our east will keep dewpoint temps in the upper-60s to low-70s F through the period, indicating a rich reservoir of low-level moisture will remain in place ahead of the front. Forecast NAM PWAT values show widespread values of 1.5 inches or greater, with a corridor of 2+ inches along and either side of the cold front as it gradually sags in. MUCAPE values on the order of 500 to near 2000 J/kg support deep moist convection with this system and, given the presence of sufficient deep moisture, heavy convective rain will be possible. The highest probability of heavy rain this period should remain across portions of northern and eventually western/west-central AR where surface ridging will be weakest and upper forcing will be maximized. Expect rainfall to move into northern AR beginning Tuesday morning with rainfall slowly overspreading the remainder of the area through the end of the period. WPC has included portions of northern AR in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. While the potential for flash flooding will be present where the heaviest rain occurs, ongoing drought conditions and relatively high flash flood guidance values (on the order of 2 to 3 inches for 1-hour FFG and 3+ inches for 3-hour FFG) support a more isolated threat for now. Will continue monitoring trends in the coming days and refine the magnitude and areal extent of the flash flood threat, although for now, there does not appear to be a significant or widespread threat. Increasing cloud cover and rain Tuesday will keep temps across the north several degrees cooler than what is expected this afternoon. Portions of central/southern AR will climb back into the mid-to- upper 90s Tuesday afternoon, however, and heat indices will once again be in the low 100s. Continued unsettled weather and a cooling trend is expected heading into the long term. Cooper LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Monday A complex weather pattern is expected mid week through the weekend. Areas of heavy rain and flooding will be possible, but high uncertainty exists with exact locations and total rainfall amounts. Given the drought and geography across the state, flash flood guidance is quite high.. so widespread flooding is not likely. Flooding will likely be limited to locations that receive the highest amounts of rainfall, urban areas, and anywhere else exceptionally susceptible to flooding. Models are in agreement that a frontal boundary will be positioned across Arkansas Wednesday morning. From this time through Thursday afternoon, several impulses rotating around the bottom periphery of the upper trough will serve to aid lift, with the frontal boundary acting as a focus for strongest convection. Moisture will be abundant as precipitable water values will be near or exceeding the 90th percentile (~1.9") for early/mid August. Global models and their ensembles are advertising anywhere from 1 to 3 inches falling across the state through Thursday afternoon. Amounts may very well exceed three inches in areas given the convective nature of these storms as parallel flow may lead to training convection along the boundary. By Thursday evening or Friday morning, the diffuse frontal boundary should move into Louisiana. Friday is looking comparatively dry (compared to Tue-Thu). Some isentropic lift above the frontal boundary and to the north may lead to some rainfall... so have kept POPs in the forecast as a result. However, the threat for flooding rain on Friday is considerably lower. Looking into the weekend, models begin to diverge on the synoptic pattern. The GFS is quick to fracture a deep low over the midwest while the ECM pattern is a bit more progressive. Both patterns keep Arkansas in northerly flow aloft with shortwaves streaming down, providing enough lift for some possible rain. The details will be worked out in the coming days... Temperatures throughout this period will likely be below normal given the amount of cloud cover expected. Highs several days will likely be in the 80s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Should any location receive extended sunlight in the afternoon, temperatures would likely exceed forecast. Brown && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...COOPER
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 455 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard- Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway- Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland- Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant- Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita- Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 455 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Hot and humid conditions are expected today, with heat index values climbing into the low-100s by afternoon. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, with gusty winds and lightning likely in any thunderstorms that develop. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday An unsettled weather pattern is expected this week into the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous, and while the threat for severe weather appears low, heavy rainfall will be likely and may lead to isolated flooding. Any flood threat that does materialize will begin across northern Arkansas Tuesday and gradually spread south into western Arkansas by Wednesday and beyond. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. Cooper/Brown
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
205 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018
ARZ016-025-061945-
Independence AR-Jackson AR-
205 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN INDEPENDENCE AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...
At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Diaz, or near Newport, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Newport... Tuckerman...
Diaz... Swifton...
Grubbs... Jacksonport...
Campbell Station... Dowdy...
Kenyon... Elgin...
Cord...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3564 9104 3558 9125 3569 9139 3589 9136
3589 9111 3588 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 222DEG 14KT 3570 9127
CavanaughThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:24 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 4 flash flood, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Power lines were down. Trees were blown down on houses. Some roofs were damaged.
A power line was blown down. Additionally, some large limbs were blown down.
A tree was blown down. Winds were estimated near 60 mph.
Strong winds damaged power lines.
Large limbs were blown down. Winds estimated around 60 mph.
Measured a 24 hour storm total of 10.63 inches beginning on the morning of August 7th.
Beaver Creek Rd. was flooded by Mill Bayou Creek and that water was approaching a few homes in the area.
Trees were blown down across portions of Hot Spring County west of Malvern.
Trees were blown down at the intersection of Highway 9 and Highway 301.
Trees and power lines were blown down along Highway 229.
A tree was blown down near Holly Springs.
A road was closed due to flooding in Maumelle.
Trees were blown down along Highway 167 east of Carthage.
Flash flooding occurred on a few streets in downtown Pine Bluff.
Trees and power lines were blown down at multiple locations across the county.
Several roads were flooded in and around Murfreesboro.
Cooperative observer reported a total of 9.40 inches of rain has fallen for the duration of this event. 5.5 inches of rain fell since 7 am this morning.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 778199, 778203, 778204, 778205, 778206, 778207, 778734, 778208, 778209, 778210, 778211, 778733, 778213, 778729, 778730, 778731, 778732.