Arizona, 2018Drought in Arizona, March 1 to 31, 2018
March 1 to 31, 2018 · NWS TWC · 8 events in 8 counties and zones
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Arizona and expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County due to below normal rainfall for the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 8
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Arizona and expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County due to below normal rainfall for the month.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 9:05 PM MST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 9:05 PM MST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
905 PM MST Wed Feb 28 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions into next week although a few showers may
occur near the White Mountains Sunday. A strong warming trend will
prevail through Saturday, then modest cooling and some gusty winds
especially east of Tucson Sunday. Expect even warmer temperatures
next Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery and surface observations depict
clear skies across southeast Arizona at this time except for a few
thin cirriform clouds near the international border adjacent Cochise
County. Surface winds had diminished to less than 10 mph at most
locales as of 8 pm MST. The combination of clear skies, nearly calm
winds, and a rapidly drying regime (01/00Z KTWC sounding total
precip water value of 0.28 inch was down 0.25 inch versus 12 hours
earlier) will provide excellent radiational cooling conditions the
rest of tonight.
The inherited official forecast depicts patchy fog developing later
tonight and continuing until mid-morning Thursday mainly in the
Sulphur Springs Valley including Willcox (see PREV DISCUSSION below
for detail). Given light rainfall amounts and a fairly large current
temp/dew point spread in this area, forecast confidence for fog
development at this time is fairly low. However, have opted to
maintain this scenario for the time being.
At any rate, clear skies or just a few thin cirriform clouds
(especially far southeastern sections) will prevail the rest of
tonight. Expect minimum temps around or shortly after daybreak
Thursday to average about 10 degs or so below seasonal normals.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid thru 02/06Z.
Patchy fog may develop late tonight until around 16Z Thursday east
of KTUS but forecast confidence is low regarding this occurrence.
Otherwise, clear skies to scattered clouds above 20k ft AGL. Surface
wind variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts into Thursday
evening. Locales east of KTUS may exhibit a more southeasterly
component Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a strong warming trend through
Saturday. A few showers may occur near the White Mountains Sunday,
but forecast confidence is low with this scenario. There is higher
confidence of gusty winds occurring Sunday, especially east of
Tucson and particularly near the New Mexico state line. After modest
cooling Sunday, dry conditions with temperatures warming above
seasonal normals by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /221 PM MST/...For tonight, expect another round of
cool temps with lows bottoming out in the mid 30s across the deserts
and in the mid 20s east of Tucson. While drier air is going to
overspread the area overnight, it's a tough call if it'll arrive in
time before patchy fog begins to develop in the eastern valleys,
especially near Willcox. HRRRx would suggest some patchy fog in
those areas after 09Z tonight and I followed suit by including a
mention in the grids. Don't anticipate widespread fog elsewhere
(including Tucson) where dewpoints are already falling into the 20s.
Relatively quiet weather expected Thursday through Saturday with
gradually warming temps and varying high clouds. A trough will move
through the Great Basin and bring breezy winds to SE Arizona on
Sunday. At this point it doesn't look to be strong enough to warrant
any sort of wind advisory, but it will certainly be noticeable along
the AZ/NM border. The overwhelming majority of moisture with this
trough will be displaced to the north. Outside of an increase in
clouds and maybe a quick sprinkle/shower in the White Mtns, it
should pass through uneventfully. After that, weak longwave ridging
is forecast across much of the SW CONUS resulting in above normal
temps with only a few clouds.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
Francis/Leins
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
Drought, Tohono O Odham Nation
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tohono O Odham Nation forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.501, -111.567 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, Tucson Metro Area
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
Drought, Baboquivari Mountains
- When
- March 1, 12:00 AM MST to March 31, 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Baboquivari Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Extreme drought (D3 category), which began in January, continued throughout March across the same sections of southeast Pima County, Santa Cruz County and far southwest Cochise County including portions of the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Baboquivari, Santa Rita and Huachuca Mountains, but expanded westward from the White Mountains in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties across the San Carlos Apache Tribe lands of northwestern Graham County.
While some rain did fall in the extreme drought area, amounts were light, ranging from 10 to 50 percent of normal for March in northern areas and less than 25 percent of normal in southern areas. Overall soil moisture readings generally remained ranked below the 20th percentile, but wildfire activity was suppressed as a result of the widespread precipitation event that occurred in mid February. Levels in the San Carlos Reservoir, which had been hovering between 7 and 8 percent of capacity through the winter, dropped to near 6 percent by the end of March.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Winter Storm and Heavy Rain in California, March 1 to 4, 20182 deaths · 5 events
- High Wind in Connecticut, March 1 to 2, 20181 death · 2 injured · $650,000 · 60 kt wind · 7 events
- Flooding in Kentucky, March 1 to 17, 20181 death · $840,000 · 13 events
- Blizzard and Avalanche in California, March 1 to 3, 20181 death · 11 injured · 16 events
- Flood and Damaging Winds in Ohio, March 1, 20181 death · $5,000 · 3 events
- Winter Storm and Winter Weather in New York, March 1 to 2, 20181 death · 3 events
- High Wind in Virginia, March 1 to 3, 20181 injured · $1.6 million · 60 kt wind · 27 events
- Winter Storm and Avalanche in Nevada, March 1 to 4, 20181 injured · $3.0 million · 56 kt wind · 10 events
- Flooding in Illinois, March 1 to 18, 2018$1.0 million · 9 events
- High Wind in North Carolina, March 1 to 3, 2018$962,000 · 52 kt wind · 9 events
- Winter Storm in New York, March 1 to 2, 2018$555,000 · 17 events
- Winter Storm in Ohio, March 1 to 3, 2018$900,000 · 5 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 745489, 745865, 745866, 745868, 745869, 745870, 745871, 745872.