Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, May 9 to 10, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
Various flight categories expected over the next 24 hours as
storms currently in NM will make their way across the TX Panhandle
tonight. TSRA expected at all TAF sites as early as 01z to as late
as 12z. Thereafter, expect some MVFR cigs to linger as vicinity
showers will persist through about 18z. VFR conditions look to
return after 15z at all TAF sites. Storms will be capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly and isolated
tornado. Winds for the overall TAF period will be out of the
south, but some northerly winds behind the storms could occur from
the 9-15z time period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Southeast upslope surface flow continues to bring moisture into the
region. Meanwhile an upper level low was located across far
northwest Mexico/southeast Arizona. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop over southeast New Mexico into the western
south plains this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes unstable given
the additional breaks in the clouds in this area. This region will
also be closer to the approaching upper level low's dynamics. The
question will be how far north and east can this convection make
into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and evening. Models at this
point are not very aggressive with bringing too much convection into
our area as we are removed from the better dynamics.

Tonight, things change as the upper level low moves closer to our
area and a jet streak around the southeast side of the low moves
closer to our area providing better dynamics for our area. Also, PVA
ahead of a vort max and upper level diffluence over the area will be
present.  With this these things in place, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop late this evening along the New Mexico state
line and move east across the panhandles. Severe thunderstorms will
be possible with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A
few tornadoes will also be possible with this activity and mainly
with any discrete cells that can form ahead of the line.

The upper level low will be in northern New Mexico by Wednesday
afternoon and this should provide enough dynamics for more
thunderstorms to develop along any boundary
(ie...outflow...dryline...surface trough) that may be found across
the northeast half of the CWA. Again, severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds will be possible in this area. A
tornado or two also can not be ruled out initially along the
boundary. The development of these storms will be somewhat
conditional depending on if the morning convection sticks around
longer than anticipated.

The upper level low then moves across the panhandles and into south
central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Some more showers and
thunderstorms will be possible under the cold core and wrap around
of the low as it moves across and east of our area.

The pattern is expected to be dry for the panhandles Friday and
Saturday as upper level ridging builds across the plains. Chances of
thunderstorms return to the eastern panhandles Sunday and Monday as
weak disturbances move across and interact with a dryline in these
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  77  49  69  46 /  70  30  10  20   5
Beaver OK                  57  78  53  68  48 /  30  50  40  30  20
Boise City OK              52  74  44  63  41 /  50  40  40  30   5
Borger TX                  58  79  51  70  48 /  70  50  20  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              57  77  49  69  46 /  60  30  20  20   5
Canyon TX                  57  78  48  71  45 /  70  30  10  10   5
Clarendon TX               59  80  52  74  49 /  70  50  20  10   5
Dalhart TX                 53  74  46  66  43 /  60  40  30  20   5
Guymon OK                  56  78  49  66  46 /  40  50  40  30  10
Hereford TX                56  76  47  70  44 /  70  20  10  10   5
Lipscomb TX                59  77  52  70  48 /  50  50  40  30  20
Pampa TX                   57  77  49  68  46 /  70  50  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                59  79  54  75  51 /  70  60  30  20   5
Wellington TX              61  81  56  78  53 /  70  60  20  20   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

89/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
352 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-100900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
352 PM CDT Tue May 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles through tonight. Some of the storms may become severe
with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the area Wednesday through
Thursday evening. Storms may be strong to severe on Wednesday.
Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should continue to monitor the forecast and be ready for
possible activation tonight and Wednesday.