Despite cool temperatures around 70 degrees, very cold mid-level temperatures late this afternoon supported moderate instability across the southeast Texas Panhandle. A weak cold front focused lift in Childress County and led to a severe thunderstorm which impacted the west edge of Childress.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Despite cool temperatures around 70 degrees, very cold mid-level temperatures late this afternoon supported moderate instability across the southeast Texas Panhandle. A weak cold front focused lift in Childress County and led to a severe thunderstorm which impacted the west edge of Childress.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 2:42 PM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 342 PM CDT Wed May 3 2017 .DISCUSSION... Gusty wind speeds continue across the area this afternoon although speeds have come down from what we have seen this morning. Biggest question for the remainder of this afternoon into tonight is whether there will be any showers moving into the northern half of the forecast area. The last several runs of the HRRR, some of the RAP runs, and 12Z run of the TTUWRF all have isolated to scattered precipitation developing across the northern half of the forecast area while the rest of the operational models keep us dry. Based on both visible and water vapor satellite loops, it looks like enough dry air will be in place across the region to keep any precipitation from developing. Showers and a few thunderstorms across the TX/OK Panhandles drifting south towards the area may make it into the northern zones but it will be difficult to get any precipitation to the ground in the dry air. After the storms dissipate, we should have a quiet night lead into a quiet weekend weather-wise as a ridge builds across the region. Surface flow will return to the south to southeast and combined with the building heights under the ridge will bump high temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s for the Caprock and upper 80s to some lower 90s for the Rolling Plains. Through this same time period, models continue to deepen a trough into a strong closed low across the West Coast and start to swing this system east by Monday. This should mark the start of a more active period for storms for the first part of next week. There are still considerable differences in timing and strength of this next storm system but it does look like low-level Gulf Moisture will stream back into the region Sunday night into Monday morning as a strong low-level jet develops. The dryline will become established across eastern New Mexico and both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a series of weak shortwave to swing out ahead of the main low. It remains way too early to have a good handle on when and where storms may develop but this pattern typically results in storms developing across eastern New Mexico in the late afternoon, and then a few of those drifting east into the western part of the forecast area. Coverage is expected to be best in the afternoon and evening hours so cut back PoPs in the morning for Monday and Tuesday. Shear profiles plus the presence of an elevated mixed layer may allow for a few severe storms, especially if the directional shear profiles improve from what is currently in the forecast. Wednesday remains the day of biggest uncertainties as the models kick the dryline east of the area at some point during the day but differ on the timing of this as well as the movement of the closed low. The GFS is now the faster of the two extended range models and much stronger than the ECMWF with the closed low. Precipitation chances may need to be extended into Thursday and possibly Friday IF enough moisture remains behind the departing system and as a cold front moves across the area. After the warm temperatures this weekend, the diurnal spread in temperatures will decrease as increasing moisture helps to moderate highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps will also bump back up into the 50s and lower 60s across the forecast area as the dryline sloshes west in the overnight hours. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 14
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1120 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 TXZ021>044-041630- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale- Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King- Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1120 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across the South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle.
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:53 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An employee at the Flying J truck stop observed hail up to dime size for several minutes along with very strong winds. No damage was noted.
Measured by the Childress ASOS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 683667, 683666.