Thunderstorms moved into North Texas late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as a weak cold front pushed south of the Red River. Additional storms popped up Sunday afternoon as the boundary sagged south of the I-20 corridor.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moved into North Texas late Saturday night/early Sunday morning as a weak cold front pushed south of the Red River. Additional storms popped up Sunday afternoon as the boundary sagged south of the I-20 corridor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 10:33 PM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1133 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 .AVIATION... /6Z TAFS/ No major changes to the latest TAF forecast. We continue to monitor a cluster of thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma that will initially make slow southward progress. As the cold front catches up to these storms, we should see increased southern momentum. All of the short term guidance continues to show a weakening trend as these storms move into North Texas, primarily the result of increased capping. Nonetheless, we'll still keep the VCTS in the latest TAFs for all of the Metroplex sites between 10-13Z. If the storms do maintain their intensity a little farther south than currently expected, then amendments will be required. Outside of the convection, VFR cigs will prevail initially with MVFR cigs developing behind the cold front early Sunday morning. MVFR cigs will persist into the early afternoon hours before lifting. At Waco, tonight's convection is unlikely to survive that far south, but new thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front during the day Sunday. Will continue with a few hours of VCTS between 17-20Z to account for this. Otherwise, some MVFR cigs should spread northward into the area over the next couple of hours. Similar to farther north, MVFR cigs will prevail behind the front until about mid-afternoon. Dunn && .UPDATE... Several hours ago, an area of agitated cumulus/towering cu developed to the east of a bulging segment of the dryline across Montague, Clay, and Jefferson Counties. A portion of this cumulus field did manage to initiate deep moist convection across portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma, but it appears that a lingering capping inversion present on the 00Z KFWD sounding was simply too much to overcome to the south of the Red River. As a result, we've trimmed and then relegated low-end chance PoPs to a smaller area in the immediate vicinity of our Red River Counties through the midnight hour, but I suspect that much of the ongoing activity in Oklahoma will stay there for the time being as individual storms (and occasional splits) continue to move off towards the east- northeast. The next forecast challenge looks to arrive near or just after midnight into our forecast area. A pre-frontal wind shift is just now moving into the Oklahoma City Metro region, and extends southwestward towards Frederick at this time, with the actual cold front lagging about 50 miles behind it. The expectation at this time is for additional thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the intruding cold front over the next several hours. As some degree of cold pool consolidation gets going and the cold front approaches, we should begin to see a more noticeable southward- push to this convective complex shortly. While forward- propagating Corfidi Vectors would tend to suggest any MCS favoring a more easterly trajectory, the presence of a significant northeast to southwest oriented theta-e plume across the region raises some eyebrows to the possibility that the southern extent may attempt to build towards the southwest--into the theta-e axis. Recent runs of the ESLR HRRRX and operational HRRR offer up some plausible scenarios given their current handling of the convective picture to our north. As a result, we've made very few changes to the overnight portion of the inherited forecast, which paints likely PoPs roughly north of I-20 and east of US-81, tapering gradually to slight chances to the south and west. Given the aforementioned stoutness of the capping inversion overhead, we expect overall convective vigor to gradually dwindle as activity pushes into North Texas overnight. That said, the presence of very nearly absolutely unstable lapse rates aloft and continued effective deep layer shear values of 35-45 kts means this convective complex still has the potential to deliver damaging wind gusts and large hail to portions of the region-- most notably to those areas north and east of US-81 and I-20 as rough demarcators. There may also still be a threat for a tornado or two across our far northeastern counties late tonight where a sliver of low-level instability may remain. Carlaw && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/ The forecast today is quite complicated with regards to both heat and severe weather headlines. Fortunately, the oppressive conditions being experienced by a good portion of North and Central TX should be relegated to the remainder of this afternoon. The severe weather risk, however, looks to persist into the day on Sunday. Hot and very humid conditions will continue this afternoon and as of 3 PM, many areas near and just west of the I-35 corridor are near or just below Heat Advisory criteria. As clouds slowly thin, temperatures will continue to climb into the mid-90s. Farther south, the advisory may be a bit more on the marginal side, depending on the rate of clearing, but at this time, still expect at least a few sites on the western periphery of the advisory to experience a couple of hours with heat index values of around 105 degrees. As we've stressed this week, it will remain hot and very humid and people who spend prolonged periods of time outside without either adequate shade or adequate hydration (water), may experience heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Fortunately, it looks like a reprieve from the hot conditions is on tap for a good portion of the area starting tonight. Early afternoon surface analysis indicated that a sharp dryline was slowly mixing eastward from near a Lawton, OK, to Abilene, TX, line. The dryline will continue its slow trek to the east this afternoon before retreating back towards the west under quiescent conditions during the early evening hours. A cold front was noted across northwest Oklahoma and will slowly move towards the south, eventually overtaking the dryline. The dryline, but more importantly the cold front will be the main players for the severe weather threat across North and Central TX over the next 24-36 hours. For this afternoon, just about all convective allowing models are silent for much of North and Central TX this afternoon which fits the conceptual model for an environment characterized by strong capping and little in the way of synoptic scale ascent. On the smaller scale, surface winds are veered well ahead of the actual dryline along what appears to be a broad surface trough. This trough extends from near a Bowie to Decatur to Granbury line and we will have to keep an eye on this surface trough as it could provide just enough convergence to assist what should likely be buoyant surface parcels. The environment this afternoon will be characterized by extreme instability values with some forecast model soundings indicating nearly 6,000 J/kg of CAPE. While these values are quite extraordinary, it's plausible that little to none of it will be realized compliments of a very strong capping inversion as sampled by the 12 UTC FWD sounding. If a thunderstorm can manage to develop and sustain itself, it will become severe very quickly with a high likelihood of giant hail (perhaps near 3" in diameter or greater), destructive straight line winds (70-80 MPH) and a tornado or two. While the surface wind fields aren't necessarily overly conducive for tornadogenesis, the impressive instability values, particularly in the low levels, will more than compensate for the lack of strong low level shear. While the tornado hazard IS the most conditional risk, it will be closely monitored should storms develop as there is a potential (again, given the extreme instability) for a robust tornado or two. The atmosphere will be most prime for convective initiation after about 6-7 P.M. Some of the latest suite of hi-res guidance initiates convection across southwestern Oklahoma. This appears plausible as surface analysis revealed a nice bulge in the dryline across this region. Given the environment, some of these models do take this activity east and eventually southeastward into extreme portions of North TX. Again, this seems like a plausible solution, but given the uncertainty as to whether or not storms will even develop across OK, I've elected to only advertise 20-40 PoPs through the late afternoon into early evening hours. Storm chances after 00 UTC should begin to increase rapidly at this time and I do expect some sort of severe storm cluster over southern Oklahoma. Some hi-res guidance actually depicts that this complex will grow upscale rapidly and slide southeastward through our northernmost row of counties against the Red River. Should this occur, the main hazards would be large, damaging hail and destructive straight-line winds. This complex may decay as the onset of nocturnal cooling occurs. However, its cessation may be tied more to the start of the low level jet, which is forecast to become quite strong, a little later in the evening. If this complex can survive through then, it may have some additional forcing which would promote a greater longevity. A potentially second, but more probable round of thunderstorms is expected near or just after midnight as the cold front slowly slides southward. If this line of thunderstorms can remain rooted in the boundary layer and develop a strong cold pool, it has the potential to morph into a forward propagating MCS as there will be an abundance of instability as well as assistance from a 30-45 knot 925mb jet. Similar to the first round, the main hazards would be destructive straight line winds and very large hail. The most likely areas to be impacted would be locales east of I-35 and north of I-20. If two rounds of convection do develop, there could be some isolated instances of flooding or even low-end flash flooding. At this time, I do not feel compelled to go with any sort of short-fused/small areal coverage FFA given 1) the antecedent conditions across North TX do not support it as most areas missed out on the heavy rain last week and 2) the speed of both rounds of convection should be swift enough to mitigate any widespread concerns. We will keep an eye on areas along the Red River, especially across more urbanized areas where flash flooding would be more likely. All convection should be efficient at producing brief bursts of heavy rain, however, given the high amount of moisture in place. Close to sunrise, there's a great deal of uncertainty as to how quickly this potential line of convection decays. Some guidance suggests that this complex will plow through just about the entire eastern half of the forecast area, while some guidance indicates a quick and painless death of the MCS as it nears I-20. For now, will confine PoPs to far eastern zones with slightly lower PoPs elsewhere. The cold front will continue to slowly trudge southward with breezy northerly winds in its wake. This feature looks to be quite slow given that there isn't a ton of strong cold advection southward. The slow progression of the front means that it'll likely not clear our far southern and southeastern counties by Sunday night. While it's likely to be mostly cloudy through the day, surface moisture will be quite high. The mid-level flow isn't overly impressive, but steep lapse rates aloft coupled with modest shear values may support multicell storm clusters capable of some damaging downburst winds and potentially large hail. There will be a heavy rain threat as well, again, given the high moisture content in the atmosphere. If the front slides to the south a little quicker than currently anticipated, it's quite possible that the severe weather threat also shifts to the south. For now, we will have to simply monitor the front's motion through the overnight hours to get a better handle on this. For Memorial Day, it appears that areas generally along and north of I-20 will be mostly dry. Unfortunately, areas farther to the south will be at greatest risk for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the severe weather risk is a little unclear, but forecast soundings do not generally support widespread severe storms on Memorial Day, but we will keep an eye on this, given the multitude of outdoor activities. For next week, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue as low level moisture lingers across the area. Unfortunately, there still does not appear to be any meaningful signs of strong ascent for most days. As a result, PoPs were broad-brushed just about each day. Towards the end of next week, it appears that a slow moving upper low may be more of a focus for a more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. 24-Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 85 65 86 66 / 50 40 20 10 5 Waco 76 87 65 83 66 / 20 50 50 40 20 Paris 69 82 62 84 62 / 80 50 10 10 5 Denton 72 84 60 86 61 / 60 40 10 10 5 McKinney 72 83 62 85 62 / 70 50 10 10 5 Dallas 77 85 66 87 67 / 50 40 20 10 5 Terrell 75 83 66 85 64 / 60 50 30 20 10 Corsicana 75 85 67 83 67 / 30 40 50 40 20 Temple 75 88 66 82 68 / 10 50 60 40 30 Mineral Wells 74 84 62 87 60 / 30 20 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1047 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 1047 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Overnight. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to cross the Red River and move into North Texas during the overnight hours. Some of these storms could be severe, especially north of I-20. Best chances for thunderstorms overnight will be along the Red River counties and as they move southward, areas east of a Denton to Dallas to Athens line. Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats, although given the instability, there will be a threat for a tornado or two through the overnight hours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop on the cold front as it continues south across Central Texas on Sunday afternoon and evening. A few strong to severe storms will remain possible with hail and strong winds the main hazards. Thunderstorm chances will continue Memorial Day and Monday night along and south of a line from Sulphur Springs to Cleburne to Comanche. A few strong storms are possible producing gusty winds, hail and brief heavy rainfall. Storm chances continue through the rest of next week, as an unsettled weather pattern continues across the region. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated Tuesday through Wednesday; however a few strong storms containing strong winds, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall are possible. An upper level trough may bring better chances for severe storms later in the week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested during the overnight hours. Dunn
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:18 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Amateur radio reported quarter sized hail on FM 677 north of the city of Nacona, TX.
Emergency management reported a large sign being blown down and debris on the road near the intersection of Hwy 82 and Travis Street, just north of the city of Sherman, TX.
Fire and rescue reported quarter-sized hail near the intersection of Main Street and Pecan Street in the city of Lindsay, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter-sized hail just south of the city of Quinlan, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail approximately 9 miles northeast of the city of Palestine, TX.
Falls County Sheriff's Department reported trees and power lines down approximately one mile south of the city of Reagan, TX.
Calvert Police Department reported several trees blocking a couple of roads near the city of Calvert, TX.
Robertson County Sheriff's Department reported roof damage in the city of Calvert, TX.
Fire and Rescue reported several trees down in the community of Elliot, just to the north-northeast of the city of Hearne, TX.
The Hearne, TX AWOS reported a peak wind gust of 59 MPH.
Amateur radio reported quarter-sized hail on the north side of Temple, TX.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 701268, 701274, 701269, 701271, 701272, 701275, 701276, 701277, 701278, 701279, 701273.