A very strong upper level low pressure system over the central Rockies pushed dry air over the South Plains and much of the Rolling Plains. Substantial moisture existed east of a dryline located around the US Highway 83 corridor.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A very strong upper level low pressure system over the central Rockies pushed dry air over the South Plains and much of the Rolling Plains. Substantial moisture existed east of a dryline located around the US Highway 83 corridor. Isolated thunderstorms developed from Childress County southward through King County. One of these storms became severe over King County before quickly moving into northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 11:33 AM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1233 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 .AVIATION... Windy conditions will persist at all TAF sites this afternoon as a strong upper level storm system churns across the central Rockies. Thunderstorms are expected to be near KCDS but most likely chances will be far enough east of the terminal that a mention in the TAF is not needed. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/ DISCUSSION... The leading edge of strong moisture advection continued unimpeded before daybreak and was found extending from Throckmorton SW to Ozona at 4 AM. This moisture should expand to occupy roughly the eastern half of the CWA by mid morning complete with some low clouds. As a slow-moving upper low tracks from Salt Lake City this morning to Grand Junction by sunset, SW flow above the TX South Plains will amplify and trend more cyclonic through the day. However, this appears to be a moot point for us as an approaching surface trough and strong LL thermal ridge shunt rich Gulf moisture largely out of our Rolling Plains' counties by mid-afternoon. Model agreement is strong enough that we have trimmed PoPs back to just slight chance in these areas - mostly to account for the usual easterly bias of progged drylines. Should any storms initiate from Childress to Aspermont before the dryline departs, environment is sufficient for some low-end severe hail until storms encounter extreme CAPE values farther downstream. West of the dryline, deep mixing withing the thermal ridge looks reasonable for some 25 mph SW winds by peak heating, with some blowing dust expected yet again near the usual dust source regions. A modest dryline retreat is likely tonight with the only factor limiting its return to the Caprock being a stubborn surface low/wave anchored over the SE Panhandle with no net pressure falls farther west. Otherwise, a weak cold front progged to enter the Panhandle (via a vort lobe pivoting out of the base of the upper low) should stall and mix out across our northern zones Fri morning, before receiving a strong southward push Fri night as the low departs east of the Rockies. Similar to today, Friday's PoPs are conditional and restricted to the dryline in our eastern zones before this boundary mixes farther east during the day. The only glimmer of hope for sustained rain chances unfolds Fri night as the stronger cold front focuses moisture convergence along the retreating dryline, possibly as far west as Lubbock. PoPs were boosted Fri night mainly in our SE zones where moisture woes are the lowest, and some severe events there certainly appear possible. By Saturday, modified but unseasonably cool cP air will drain over the region on northerly winds. Opted to leave a sliver of rain chances in our SE zones for forecast collaboration, but the overall trend is clearly toward progressive drying of the column from N-S through the day despite a lingering upper trough lagging Friday's upper low. Steady return flow beginning Sunday should allow the establishment of modified Gulf moisture across the region. This process will be critical in determining rain chances for Mon and Tue as broad and deep cyclonic NW flow emerges complete with another cP front. GEFS members along with operational models agree well in delivering the best rain chances late Mon with the arrival of the upper trough axis and cold front, before moisture is scoured out late Tue and Wed behind the front. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 01
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1107 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 TXZ021>044-191615- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale- Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King- Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1107 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A slight risk of severe thunderstorms will exist this afternoon east of a Childress to Aspermont line. Storms could produce hail up to half dollar size, before intensifying east of the outlook area where significant instability will exist. A second risk of storms across the Rolling Plains will exist late tonight as an upper level disturbance interacts with the retreating dryline. Hail to the size of golf balls and winds to 60 mph will be possible with the overnight activity. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Some severe thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of the Rolling Plains on Friday near a dryline and approaching cold front. Thereafter, the threat of hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be required across the Rolling Plains and extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:45 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement in King County and a cooperative weather observer reported hail ranging from quarter size to golf ball size in and around Guthrie. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 687391.