Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, May 14, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
256 PM CDT Sun May 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Higher dewpoints have pushed back into the region with the dryline
now located along a line from Plains to Hart. This is where
convection is expected to form later this evening with the primary
severe threat being damaging winds and hail up to half dollar size.
Storms should be mostly isolated in nature and begin to develop once
upper level lift pushes in from the west. They dryline is expected
to make it as far as the edge of the caprock tonight before
retreating back to NM. Better storm chances will come tomorrow
afternoon/evening as better upper level diffluence moved in ahead of
an upper low. Where convection develops will depend on the location
of the dryline at the time an upper level shortwave pushes overhead.
Currently the area favoring convection will be the I27 corridor and
eastward. As shear should be better (30-40 knots) severe chances
will be increased from that of today with large hail and damaging
winds being the biggest threat. The dryline is only expected to
retreat as far west as the caprock escarpment leaving the next round
of possible convection to the Rolling Plains on Tuesday. Wednesday
looks to be quiet as far as convection is concerned as the dryline
will push to the east of the FA as the axis of the low will be to
our east by Wednesday morning. Activity looks to pick up again later
Thursday into Friday as another deep low pushes across the central
Rockies. The ECMWF continues to be slower than the GFS with the
progression of the low allowing the dryline to pull back to the
central portion of the FA. The GFS keeps most of West Texas behind
the dryline. What models have agreed upon for the past several days
is the low pulling a cool front southward on Saturday. What they
lack is agreement on frontal placement. The ECMWF continues to be
our friend with holding the front back for a longer period of time
delaying the fropa till late Saturday night. The GFS has the front
south of the FA by 12z Saturday morning keeping the Caprock mostly
dry.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1131 AM CDT Sun May 14 2017

TXZ021>044-151645-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1131 AM CDT Sun May 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across the entire outlook area. Locations north and east
of a line from Dimmitt, to Brownfield, to Paducah will have
higher chances of experiencing severe weather. The main threat
will be damaging winds with speeds up to 70 mph but hail up to
half dollar ball size is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Severe thunderstorms will again be possible across all but the
western-most portions of the outlook area Monday afternoon and
evening, then across the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional storms may be possible
Friday through the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.