Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, March 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
341 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
For the next few hours, the main area of concern will remain out west
along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. Currently, we are
beginning to see the low clouds erode across the Rio Grande plains.
Several hi-res models suggest development is possible along this
differential heating zone and this area will need to be monitored
carefully through this afternoon. For the early evening hours, the
Pacific cold front will overtake the dryline across west central
Texas, including the Edwards Plateau. As this occurs, convection
should quickly develop, then progress eastward into the Rio Grande
plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country between 9
and 11 PM. For the overnight hours, this line will move eastward and
impact the remainder of the Hill country and I-35 corridor between
Midnight and 6 AM. We continue to expect damaging winds and large
hail to be the main severe weather concern for tonight as this line
of storms moves through the area. However, we can't rule out an
isolated tornado as well. As the line shifts east of the I-35
corridor after 6 AM, most models indicate a weakening trend as this
line of convection moves east of the strongest upper level lift.
However, we will still need to monitor this line of storms carefully
as it will be moving into favorable moisture and low-level wind
shear. Given the speed of this system, the risk for heavy rainfall
appears rather low at this time. Storm total amounts will likely be
lowest (1/4 inch or less) along the Rio Grande, with amounts
increasing to 1/2 - 1 inch for areas north of a Kerrville to Cuero
line. Some spots could pick up around 1.5 inches north of this line,
but these amounts should be isolated. Areas east of I-35 can expect a
low chance of rain Wednesday afternoon, with the remainder of the
area remaining dry.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
A relatively quiet weather pattern is in store Thursday and Friday
and this will lead to a dry forecast along with above normal
temperatures. The pattern is expected to once again become
increasingly active for the upcoming weekend into early next week as
another upper level storm system takes aim at the region. The medium
range models are starting to show a little better agreement with
regards to the mid-level flow pattern. This system should come across
Texas at a lower latitude and this should bode well for a good chance
of rainfall and active weather across south central Texas, especially
Saturday night and Sunday. This upper system moves to our east by
late Monday, temporarily leaving a dry forecast into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              66  87  55  78  55 /  90  50  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  86  54  78  52 /  90  60  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  86  53  79  53 /  90  50  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  82  51  74  52 /  90  40  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  85  54  82  56 /  60  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  85  52  76  52 /  90  50  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             60  86  52  81  53 /  90  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  87  53  78  52 /  90  50  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  85  56  76  53 /  60  80  20  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  86  54  80  55 /  90  40  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  86  54  80  55 /  90  40  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
429 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
429 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe weather along and west of a line
from Giddings to Gonzales to Kenedy late this afternoon through
tonight. A strong upper level disturbance will bring a chance of
thunderstorms over the Edwards plateau and Northern Hill Country
in the late afternoon and early evening hours, followed by a near
widespread thunderstorm event late tonight. Primary severe
concerns are for large hail and damaging winds. There is an
isolated threat for tornadoes, and a few areas may experience
heavy downpours of 1 to 2 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will remain possible
east of I-35 Wednesday morning, with damaging winds and large
hail being the primary threats.

Wednesday afternoon, gusty winds and low relative humidities are
expected to develop over the Southern Edwards Plateau, leading to
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

Saturday night into Sunday, another storm system is expected to
move into Texas and bring a potential for strong to severe
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reporting may be needed Tuesday night through early
Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
514 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ183-282245-
Val Verde TX-
514 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 513 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seminole Canyon State Park, or 11 miles southeast of Langtry, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comstock, Shumla and Seminole Canyon State Park.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3004 10135 2970 10097 2962 10125 2963 10127
      2961 10128 2960 10131 2965 10130 2966 10135
      2965 10136 2970 10137 2971 10140 2973 10139
      2975 10142 2977 10140 2975 10144 2979 10146
      2976 10151 2977 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 225DEG 38KT 2969 10144

CP