An upper level trough, dryline and Pacific cold front all combined to produce a round of severe thunderstorms, with large hail being the primary severe weather element to affect the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
An upper level trough, dryline and Pacific cold front all combined to produce a round of severe thunderstorms, with large hail being the primary severe weather element to affect the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 26, 2:36 PM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... We continue to monitor the potential for severe storms with all types of severe weather threats late this afternoon through tonight. While very large hail is expected to be the primary threat, a threat for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated flash flooding will also exist. The main areas of concern continue to be roughly along and north of I-20, but locations south of I-20 are not out of the woods; coverage is just expected to be more limited in these areas. A vigorous shortwave traversing the Southern Plains has pulled Gulf moisture northward across North and Central TX today. This shallow moist layer is east of a dryline which continues to sharpen through far western OK, draped southward toward Abilene. Vigorous boundary layer mixing is eroding this thin layer of moisture which is only around 1 kft deep per the special 20z FWD sounding, and surface dewpoints have decreased by a few degrees since 1pm. A plume of cirrus associated with the shortwave trough has inhibited daytime heating in areas north of I-20 and west of I-35, but some insolation combined with warm advection has still allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 80s. Despite the fairly low dewpoints, surface-based destabilization is still occurring and CAPE values are climbing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range through the I-35 corridor and westward. However, due to the shallow nature of the moisture, MLCAPEs are holding around 500 J/kg due to the drier low-levels. Convective initiation is expected between 4-6pm across our northwestern counties near the Bowie, Decatur, Jacksboro areas and possibly as far south as Mineral Wells. Storms will quickly intensify and maintain rotating updrafts given favorable shear and hodograph parameters. A 500mb jet of 50-60 kts is positioned on the southeastern periphery of the shortwave trough resulting in deep-layer shear sufficient for supercellular storm modes, and storms will take on supercell characteristics shortly after initiation. Steep lapse rates around 7.5 C/km are already in place and are forecast to steepen further as dynamic ascent from the shortwave trough cools the mid-levels. As additional low-level moisture continues to advect northward, MLCAPEs should increase and wet bulb zero heights will fall. Semi-discrete supercells in this environment will be capable of producing very large hail in excess of golfball to baseball size. The tornado threat with initial convection will actually be fairly low (but nonzero) due to the meager moisture quality. LCL heights will remain around 4-5 kft and the dry low-levels will considerably limit the tornado potential through the late afternoon hours when the PBL is the deepest and the moisture is highly mixed. However, the tornado potential could change depending on how the initial convection evolves throughout the evening. As mixing lessens after peak heating hours, moisture quality will increase through the PBL and LCL heights will lower. In addition, the low-level jet currently around 30 kts will increase to 40+ kts after 9pm. As cells move east towards the Sherman, Bonham, McKinney, Greenville areas, the tornado potential (albeit still low) may increase due to these factors. Despite this time frame being after sunset, the lack of solar heating is not expected to diminish the tornado potential, at least initially. Cells may begin growing upscale into a cluster with embedded supercell structures by this time with a broken line of severe storms possibly ranging from the Paris area southwestward towards the DFW Metroplex. Stay up to date with the latest forecast information this evening which will continue to be highlighted via graphics and supplemental mesoscale discussions as necessary. -Stalley && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ See locally issued Mesoscale Update AFDFWD and regional SPC SWOMCD discussions for short term updates through this evening. For tonight after midnight most of the convection that occurs this evening should be waning across our far eastern areas. A cold front will eventually catch up to the dryline and push through the remainder of the CWA through mid Monday morning. Drier air will filter into the region through the day tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 70s and lower 80s. While the front will initially clear the CWA, it is likely to quickly return northward as a warm front, especially across West Texas late Monday night. This will mean a gradual increase in moisture again across the southern half of the CWA as southeasterly winds return. By Tuesday, another powerful upper low will be moving out of New Mexico and approaching Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will have spread northward and should be in place across most of Texas. A dryline will set up across West Texas with a warm front extending from the surface low in the Panhandle southeast to along the Red River. This will set up another favorable scenario for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening. Initially, the more significant threat will be to the west of our area, but will spread eastward into the late evening hours. Our best chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will continue to be accompanied by a severe weather threat. In addition to a severe weather threat, deep southerly flow will be in place Tuesday night into Wednesday morning accompanied by PW values near record territory. This suggests that one or more convective lines or clusters could train over localized areas resulting in a flash flood threat. The entire system does appear to be progressive enough to preclude a more serious hydrologic threat at this time. Precipitation should end quickly from west to east during the day Wednesday. The upper pattern remains progressive through the weekend with yet another system approaching by Saturday. At this time it is a little early to tell if a significant severe threat will accompany this system, but rain/storm chances appear to be increasing at least for Saturday. Dunn && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 103 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/ Concerns: Thunderstorm potential this evening, MVFR/IFR cigs overnight into Monday morning. Breezy southerly winds continue to pull in Gulf moisture to the region. Later this afternoon, isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near/north of Interstate 20 and move eastward across North TX. This activity will likely impact Bowie and Bonham cornerpost arrivals as well as northward departures throughout the evening hours. High-res models are still somewhat inconsistent on how far south to initiate thunderstorms, but it is possible that a severe storm affects airports within the immediate DFW area after 00z. Frequent lightning, large hail, and strong winds will all be possible with these thunderstorms. Have maintained a mention of VCTS but have delayed it from previous TAF issuance based on latest guidance; have elected not to include a prevailing TS mention yet due to uncertainty. The threat for thunderstorms in the DFW area will decrease after 04 or 05z. The potential for a storm at the Waco TAF site is too low to include in the TAF as coverage is expected to be limited farther south. The highest storm chances will continue to be located near/along the Red River. A cold front will be approaching the area late tonight and early Monday morning. In advance of this front, widespread MVFR and IFR stratus should develop and cigs below FL015 are likely at all TAF sites beginning around midnight. Post-frontal stratus will likely be an issue throughout Monday morning with cigs falling below 1 kft immediately along the front. Winds will turn to the northeast and decrease in speed as the front moves through. Waco may experience several hours of IFR cigs tomorrow morning including some at or below 600 ft. Conditions should begin improving by late Monday morning with VFR conditions expected at all airports by Monday afternoon. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 79 59 81 66 / 50 0 0 20 70 Waco 63 81 64 82 66 / 10 10 5 20 70 Paris 61 76 54 77 63 / 60 10 0 20 50 Denton 56 77 56 78 65 / 50 0 0 20 70 McKinney 59 77 57 79 65 / 60 0 0 20 70 Dallas 61 80 60 81 67 / 50 0 0 20 70 Terrell 62 79 58 81 66 / 50 10 0 20 60 Corsicana 65 81 62 82 67 / 30 20 0 20 50 Temple 64 83 64 83 66 / 10 10 5 30 70 Mineral Wells 52 80 55 78 61 / 20 0 0 40 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 26/91
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 447 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 447 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight across all of North and Central Texas. While only a few storms are expected to develop, those that do form will likely become severe. The main hazards are expected to be large hail and damaging winds, although there is the potential for a few tornadoes north of Interstate 20. The highest chances for thunderstorms and severe weather will be along and north of Interstate 20 beginning after 4PM. The severe weather threat is expected to diminish after midnight. An elevated fire weather threat is expected to develop late this afternoon west of a Jacksboro to Comanche line. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A few thunderstorms may linger Monday morning along and east of a line from Paris to Athens to Cameron. Severe weather is not expected. There are more thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday as another storm system affects the region. Severe weather and flooding will be possible with this mid-week system, in particular Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another round of thunderstorms is expected next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Some spotter activation is likely late this afternoon and evening, with better chances for activation along and north of Interstate 20. JLDunn
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:17 UTC.
84 hail, 3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency Management reported golf ball sized hail near the intersection of FM 2210 and Pump Station Road; approximately 3 miles northwest of Perrin, TX.
Amateur radio reported ping pong ball sized hail approximately 2 miles south of Decatur, TX.
A social media report indicated half-dollar sized hail approximately 3 miles south of Runaway Bay, TX.
A trained spotter reported half-dollar sized hail near the town of Bowie, TX.
Emergency management reported quarter-sized hail near the town of Bowie, TX.
Amateur radio reported quarter-sized hail approximately 3 miles south of Bridgeport, TX.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail approximately 5 miles south of Bridgeport, TX.
Amateur radio reported quarter sized hail near the town of Paradise, TX.
A social media report indicated golf ball sized hail approximately 7 miles southeast of Bridgeport, TX.
A National Weather Service employee reported quarter-sized hail covering the ground approximately 6 miles southeast of Decatur, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail approximately 8 miles south of Decatur, TX.
A trained spotter reported baseball sized hail near the community of Northlake.
A trained spotter reported 2-inch diameter hail approximately 4 miles south of Decatur, TX.
Amateur radio reported quarter-sized hail approximately 8 miles west of Denton.
A broadcast media report indicated 1.5 inch diameter hail approximately 2 miles south of Krum.
A social media report indicated 2-inch diameter hail in the town of Decatur.
An amateur radio report indicated quarter-sized hail in the town of Boyd.
An amateur radio report indicated quarter-sized hail in the town of Krum.
Amateur radio reported that 8-inch diameter tree limbs were blown down in the city of Boyd, TX.
A public report of ping pong ball sized hail was received in the city of Iredell, TX.
Amateur radio reported half-dollar sized hail in the town of Argyle.
A trained spotter reported quarter-sized hail near the intersection of Interstate 35 and FM 407, approximately 5 miles east of Justin, TX.
A delayed CoCoRaHS report indicated 2 inch diameter hail approximately 2 miles northwest of Argyle, TX.
An amateur radio report indicated baseball sized hail in the city of Argyle.
Amateur radio reported that baseball sized hail was knocking out car windows in the city of Argyle, TX. The hail was wind driven by severe thunderstorm winds.
Amateur radio reported baseball sized hail in the city of Lantana.
A delayed social media report indicated 2 inch diameter hail in the city of Ponder, TX.
Two inch diameter hail was reported in the city of McKinney.
Amateur radio reported baseball sized hail in the city of Corinth.
An amateur radio report indicated 4.25 inch diameter hail approximately 2 miles north of Corinth, TX.
A social media report indicated hail from quarter sized to baseball sized near Lewisville, TX.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail near Lake Dallas.
A social media report indicated hail up to tennis-ball sized near the city of Corinth, TX.
Emergency management reported quarter-sized hail in Flower Mound.
A social media report indicated 2 inch diameter hail in Flower Mound, TX.
A delayed social media report indicated golf ball sized hail near The Colony.
A delayed CoCoRaHS report indicated ping-pong ball sized hail 3 miles northeast of Little Elm.
Emergency management reported quarter-sized hail near the intersection of State Highway 22 and County Road 3345.
Emergency management reported half-dollar sized hail along FM 1713 at Lake Whitney.
A trained spotter reported golf ball sized hail in Frisco.
An amateur radio report indicated golf ball sized hail in the city of Little Elm.
A delayed social media report indicated 2-inch diameter hail near the intersection of Preston Rd and Main Street in Frisco, TX.
A broadcast media report of golf ball sized hail was received at Lake Whitney.
Fire and Rescue measured hail of 2.25 inches in diameter in Frisco, TX.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail in the city of Sanger, TX.
Broadcast media reported quarter sized hail approximately 11 miles east of the city of Goldthwaite.
A social media report indicated golf ball sized hail near the intersection of Hwy 380 and Route 423.
Emergency management reported golf ball sized hail near Lake Whitney.
An amateur radio report indicated 2-inch diameter hail on the east side of Frisco, TX .
A NWS employee reported golf ball sized hail via social media near the intersection of Stratford and Enmore in the city of Frisco, TX.
A trained spotter reported baseball sized hail in the community of Lake Dallas.
Emergency management reported golf ball sized hail near the intersection of FM 1713 and FM 933, approximately 3 miles north of Lake Whitney.
A trained spotter reported quarter-sized hail 2 miles southwest of McKinney.
Fire and rescue reported 2 inch diameter hail in Mckinney.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail in the city of Pilot Point, TX.
Amateur radio reported ping pong ball sized hail in the city of Melissa, TX.
A public report of ping pong ball sized hail was received in the city of Pilot Point.
Emergency management reported quarter sized hail on Hwy 22 west of the city of Hillsboro, TX.
Quarter sized hail was reported by the Hill County emergency manager on SH 22, west of Hillsboro.
The Gatesville, TX AWOS recorded a thunderstorm wind gust of 58 MPH.
Emergency management reported half-dollar sized hail in the city of Celeste, TX.
Amateur radio reported quarter sized hail in the city of Leonard.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail in the city of Bailey, TX.
Amateur radio reported half-dollar sized hail in the city of Ladonia.
Amateur radio reported quarter sized hail in the community of Moffat, TX.
Broadcast media reported golf ball sized hail in the city of Nolanville, TX.
Broadcast media reported golf ball sized hail near Lake Belton.
A second area of quarter sized hail fell in Moffat.
Amateur radio reported quarter-sized hail in the City of Celeste, TX.
Bell County Sheriff's Department reported quarter sized hail in the city of Belton, TX.
A trained spotter reported quarter-sized hail approximately 3 miles north of Celeste, TX.
Amateur radio operators reported on inch diameter hail in Moffat.
Golf ball sized hail was reported near Lake Belton, by broadcast media crew.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 681066, 681067, 681068, 681069, 681070, 681071, 681072, 681073, 681075, 681076, 690164, 681077, 683993, 683994, 683995, 690166, 683996, 683997, 683998, 683999, 684337, 684274, 684000, 684001, 684002, 690167, 684003, 684338, 684004, 684005, 690177, 684006, 684007, 684008, 684009, 684010, 684011, 687734, 684012, 684013, and more.