Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity near KPVW may hold together trough 03Z-05Z
as it makes its way toward KCDS. Further south toward KLBB, a
lower risk of TSTMs will exist until about 02Z. This activity
should be fairly short lived at any given terminal. VFR to persist
outside of convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
We will see our first significant thunderstorm chances in a while
over the next couple of days.

Southwest flow aloft has increased today and will continue to do
so through Tuesday. This was in response to a deep upper level low
currently in the Great Basin. This low will eject out of the
Great Basin into the northern Rockies and then the northern Plains
tomorrow. Dryline convergence will continue to sharpen by late
this afternoon centering around the I-27 corridor. A minor
secondary dryline will also sharpen in eastern New Mexico but is
not expected to have much of an impact on convective chances.
there is still some minor capping this afternoon which prevented
convection the past several days. However, this capping is
expected to become weak enough to allow convection to develop.
Surface dew points in the lower 60s have allowed mixed layer
instabilities to climb to around 2000 J/kg already and could go
slightly higher in the next few hours. Deep layer shear has
improved from yesterday with values on the order of 25-30kt today.
Although a cu field is completely absent at the moment, convection
is still expected to develop as all hi-res models depict.
Initiation time is anticipated to be around 23Z or so. Even
better chances for convection will come on Tuesday as the flow
aloft further increases. Instability is progged to be slightly
less than today with only a very weak cap by the afternoon again
with an earlier initiation time.

We will begin to see rising heights on Wednesday with a
strengthening ridge to the south of the region. The dryline will
be sticking around the area but this ridge will fight the dryline
convergence in creating convection on Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. This ridge will also lead to very warm temperatures
with daytime highs likely eclipsing 100 degrees possibly for a few
days peaking Friday-Saturday. Since low level moisture will also
be around, morning lows will only drop into the lower 70s.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

TXZ021>044-131630-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
along and ahead of the dryline which will be located along a line
from Brownfield to Plainview to Silverton by late afternoon.
Wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to golf ball size will be
possible with this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorm activity will be possible each afternoon and evening
this week. A higher chance and greater coverage of storms is
forecast for Tuesday. Large hail and damaging downburst wind
gusts will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening generally
along and east of I-27.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required across the central South
Plains and Rolling Plains late this afternoon into this evening.