Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, January 20, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
553 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
21/00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cluster of showers and tstms currently approaching
Houston/Galveston Bay will move northeast into the area, and
expected to reach the BPT terminal by 02Z. This activity will
spread east acrs the area during the evening and overnight, with
minimal changes with respect to timing as convection reaches LCH
between 02-04Z and LFT/ARA by 04-06Z. Although not depicted in
TAFs at this time, there is the potential for some strong or svr
storms, capable of producing strong gusty winds and large hail.
Activity should remain a little more sctd near AEX but anticipate
a period of TSRA between 04-08Z. The typical lowering of
cigs/vsbys with convection can be expected (into MVFR/IFR
categories) but LIFR cigs/vsbys are expected to develop once the
convection exits to the east late tonight. Vsbys should improve to
VFR with cigs lifting to MVFR by 16Z Saturday while southwesterly
winds develop and strengthen to around 10 kt.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...Another very mild day ongoing which seems to have
become more of the norm this winter season. Surface obs showing
temps generally in the mid 70s, about 15 degrees above climo.
Morning LCH sounding indicating a very dry atmosphere overhead on
a west to southwest flow through the column. Precipitable water
very low coming in at 0.61 inches. Changes are on the way and
beginning to see that with showers and thunderstorms forming just
inland of the Texas coast.

Water vapor imagery showing mid and upper level moisture
beginning to advance into the region along and ahead of incoming
associated southern trof. Eastward advancing feature progged
similarly by models to move across the forecast area through the
overnight hours. Impressive wind fields noted ahead of trof with
100-120 kt southwest upper jet, southwest 50-60 kt at 500 mb and a
30-40 kt low level southerly jet. Latter feature will bring a
rapid influx of moisture which will add to the already then
established mid and upper moisture with precipitable water values
rocketing up to above 1.5 inches. Deep ascent is expected to
develop and will continue to maintain high end pops. Plenty of
shear will be available for development of initially elevated
rotating storms transitioning to possibly surface based with time
and eastward progression. SPC carrying the western half of the
forecast area within a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and the
eastern half in a more ominous enhanced outlook. Damaging winds
and hail will be possible, as well as isolated tornadoes.
Progressive nature of system will keep the severe threat
relatively short and rain totals generally under one inch.
Saturday expected to be very mild once again and just a slight
chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Next weather maker
then moving through Saturday night.

Next trof will advance across the southwest conus Saturday with
rapid and deep cyclogenesis occurring as feature advances into the
Texas panhandle. Continuing deepening and vigorous low will
maintain an eastward trek advancing into the lower Mississippi
valley Saturday night. An associated cold front will sweep across
the area during this time-frame. Another severe weather threat
will emerge as wind fields remain impressive with increasingly
sharp lapse rates developing. Moisture return at this time however
appears somewhat limited and maintaining lower pops with this
next system. SPC is maintaining a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms for all of Louisiana and into the lakes area of
interior southeast Texas. Over the remainder of southeast Texas, a
lesser marginal risk is in place. Sunday them looks dry but
breezy to windy as tight pressure gradient comes into play
associated with 990 plus low moving through the lower Mississippi
valley and into the southeast conus.

Temperatures then cool for the first few days of the new week, but
will trend back upward beginning Tuesday ahead of a more robust
cold front advancing across the area late Wednesday.

MARINE...Moderate southerlies will remain in place overnight and
Saturday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as
a vigorous upper level disturbance advances across the gulf
waters. Rain chances will then taper off Saturday but increase
Saturday night as strong low pressure advances through the lower
Mississippi valley and into the southeast conus sending a cold
front through the northwest gulf. Dangerously strong winds are
expected to develop in the wake of the front along with unusually
high seas. A gale watch is in effect.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  72  54  65 /  50  30  50  10
LCH  63  74  58  68 /  80  20  40  10
LFT  65  76  59  69 /  80  30  50  10
BPT  63  76  57  69 /  80  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night
     for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

AVIATION...24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
457 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
212300-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
457 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA, SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IS WITHIN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ENHANCED THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY WITH RAINS TAPERING OFF.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MID-WEEK
AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-212300-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
457 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AS RAINS DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DOCKET FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DANGEROUSLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS UNUSUALLY HIGH SEAS AS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
711 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

TXZ201-215-216-210145-
Orange-Jefferson-Hardin-
711 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN AND WEST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 711 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fannett, or 8
miles north of Hamshire, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Bevil Oaks, China, Rose City and Fannett.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 2987 9430 2995 9442 3028 9428 3007 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 209DEG 37KT 2998 9430

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
724 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             CHINA                   30.05N 94.34W
01/20/2017  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

&&

MOGGED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
727 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

TXZ201-215-210200-
Jefferson-Hardin-
727 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES...

At 727 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Nome, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Lumberton, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Bevil Oaks and China.

LAT...LON 3042 9436 3024 9412 3022 9412 3021 9410
      2994 9442 2996 9444 3011 9445 3011 9458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 228DEG 29KT 3007 9447

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