While rain fell across the coastal counties and the eastern Valley, little rain fell further inland, continuing dry conditions, and allowing for Severe (D2) drought conditions to spread west.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
While rain fell across the coastal counties and the eastern Valley, little rain fell further inland, continuing dry conditions, and allowing for Severe (D2) drought conditions to spread west.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 11:19 PM CST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1119 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...LIFR ceilings are quickly developing as well as lowering in the KBRO area and are likely to spread north and west overnight. IFR to VLIFR conditions can be expected to become widespread spreading east to west overnight. As winds continue to lower the low stratus may become fog with LIFR to VLIFR vsby. Probabilities and confidence is rather high for the lowest conditions to develop between 09-14Z Wednesday. VFr conditions to redevelop by 17-18Z with a light southerly winds prevailing. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...A cold front extending across the Texas coastal plains is expected to pull up stationary along or just east of the coast line tonight. Light winds, abundant low level moisture and clear skies with dry stable air aloft will result in fog formation tonight. Areas of dense fog are anticipated with visibilities likely falling to LIFR or VLIFR overnight and into sunrise Wednesday. Timing of the onset is of low confidence with some solutions indicating around midnight with others not until around sunrise. latest TAF package will split the difference showing LIFR VSBY initiating between 08-09Z with IFR possibly as early as 05Z. The lowest conditions persist until 15-16Z then full VFR is expected for the remainder of the Wednesday. Another round of IFR or lower conditions are expected again Thursday as the front moves slowly through the region. Light and variable winds tonight become light south to southwest Wednesday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Light to moderate south-southwest flow from the surface to 850mb has led to strong surface heating early this afternoon with temperatures reaching or exceeding all-time record highs from BRO to MFE. Winds have shifted to the northwest across the western half of the area from McAllen to Zapata as a dry line slowly moved eastward into portions of Deep South Texas. The boundary should retreat westward tonight with moisture recovering overnight. Confidence is increasing on a dense fog event setting up after midnight tonight as model soundings indicate a strong low level inversion below 900mb and light surface winds. There is lower confidence of dense fog in the Upper Valley with lower dew points, but have leaned towards expanding the coverage based on model trends. Wednesday, with SW to W flow from 850 to 700mb, temperatures will heat up again to near or above record highs with compressional heating from the higher terrain of Mexico. The dry line will push eastward back into the area with much drier air at the surface, so have adjusted temperatures up a degree or two from the previous forecast. Another round of fog is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning as moisture pools ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Behind the front, temperatures are still expected to be above normal with not much in the way of rainfall. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): 500 mb troffing over the eastern half of the lower 48 states will drive a weak cold front south of the region early Thurs which will provide a temporary break from the near record high currently impacting the region. The CAA will be weak and pretty short lived with overall temps behind the front still remaining above climo for February. The 500 mb ridging to our west will then build east over the RGV and northern Mexico on Fri and Sat. This will combine with the returning southerly low level to drive back the high temps across the RGV into the 80s and 90s threatening records once again. A trough axis will then dig southeast out of the Pacific Northwest moving towards the South Central Plains late in the longer range forcast period. Both the GFS and ECMWF models then hint that the southern end of the 500 mb trough axis could close off over north central Mexico on Mon with the closed low eventually opening up and moving east as an open trough on Tues. The passage of this trough axis should eventually push another stronger cold front through the RGV towards the end of the forecast period dropping temps down closer to or below climo. This next strong 500 mb trough will have better deeper layer moisture to work with over the RGV and accordingly will maintain a blend of pops from both the ECMWF and the GFS for early next week. Will also include thunder in the current forecast wording due to stronger potential surface convergence indicated by both longer range models. Will go close to the warmer ECMWF temps through Sunday as this model appears to be handling the excessive heat periods better versus the GFS. Will then lean towards a blend of the GFS and ECMWF for temps on Mon and Tues as the GFS is indicating better CAA especially on Tues. Overall forecast condfidence for temps and pops is above average through Sun then drops only to average for early next week due to the model differences. MARINE: (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Light south winds will continue tonight with a little bit of a swell from the south keep wave heights up to 3 to 4 feet. Favorable boating conditions will continue through much of the short term period before a cold front moves through Thursday morning with increased northeast winds and building seas. Thursday through Sunday Night: The light to moderate east to northeast surface flow on Thurs will likely be pretty short lived as the surface high over the southeastern states will steadily shift east allowing for a quick return of stronger southerly surface winds along the lower TX coastline. The next 500 mb trough axis and associated surface frontal systems digging into the south central plains over the weekend into early next week will likely maintain moderate to strong southerly surface winds oveer the region which could keep the bay and gulf conditions in SCEC/marginal SCA levels later in the forecast period. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 509 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 TXZ248>257-082315- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy- Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- 509 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight areas of dense fog are anticipated to develop late tonight. Visibilities may lower to less than one quarter mile at times mainly along and east of Highway 281 and a dense fog advisory may be necessary. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday areas of dense fog are possible early Wednesday and again Thursday morning. Some areas may experience visibilities lower than one quarter mile at times. A wind advisory for the Eastern coastal counties may be necessary SAturday and Sunday. Rip current risk will be elevated Thursday through Monday. Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-082315- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 509 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Small Craft Advisories may be required periodically for all or portions of the Lower Texas Coastal Waters from Thursday night through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
While rain fell across the far southeast corner of Brooks County and improved Severe (D2) drought conditions there, slightly further west (west of Highway 281), a narrow strip of Severe (D2) drought conditions developed along the southern county border, where rainfall largely missed the area.
Rainfall during the first week of February allowed for slight improvements in drought conditions for Kenedy County. The rainfall eliminated Severe (D2) drought conditions in the SW corner of Kenedy County and pared back the Severe (D2) drought conditions in NE Kenedy County.
While rain fell across the far northeast corner of Hidalgo County and improved Severe (D2) drought conditions there, slightly further west Severe (D2) drought conditions developed over north central to northwest Hidalgo County, where the rain did not fall.
Continued general lack of rainfall led to the development of Severe (D2) drought conditions across the northeast corner of Starr County by the end of the first week of February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 680859, 680860, 680861, 680862.