Flash Flood and Damaging Wind in Texas, August 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will bring seasonably warm drier weather this
weekend and most of next week. However easterly winds will push
sufficient moisture into the region for a few mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure center aloft will become located in the Nevada-Utah
region this weekend through at least Wednesday with circulation
around this feature resulting in mid level northeasterly flow into
southern New Mexico and west Texas. Thus drier continental air
aloft will flow into the CWA.

Concurrently at low levels large thermal/heat low will cover most
of the United States east of the divide while high pressure
extends into the southern plains and Hurricane Harvey meanders
around Texas coastal areas. This pattern will sustain mostly an
east to southeast wind with attendant transfer of moisture.
Precipitable water will thus remain above an inch through Saturday
and then slowly diminish as the drier air continues flowing
above.

Despite this the air mass will be weakly unstable most areas with
surface heating and areas of upslope flow initiating convection.
Expect coverage will be mostly isolated due to limited
instability and moisture plus large scale subsidence associated
with upper ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250 with isolated to scattered 3SM
TSRA BKN040-060 through 06Z and again after 18Z.  Winds generally E
to NE AOB 12kts except near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A slow decrease in low level moisture over the coming days as upper
ridge strengthens over the Great Basin and northeast flow develops
over region.  Still expect isolated lowland to scattered mountain
thunderstorms through Saturday.  Most storm activity starting Sunday
and continuing into early next week will be confined to the
mountains with just a few storms moving off the higher terrain into
the lowlands.  Relative humidities will be on the decrease with
lower to mid 20s in the lowlands expected around the Tue/Wed
timeframe.  As the northeast flow aloft increases, vent rates will
as well with very good to excellent rates expected by early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 70  90  69  91 /  20  20  10  10
Sierra Blanca           66  86  64  87 /  30  30  10  10
Las Cruces              66  88  65  90 /  20  20  10  10
Alamogordo              65  87  65  89 /  30  20  10  20
Cloudcroft              50  68  50  70 /  40  30  20  20
Truth or Consequences   67  89  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
Silver City             61  85  59  86 /  20  30  10  20
Deming                  65  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
Lordsburg               67  89  66  91 /  20  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro      70  89  69  91 /  20  20  10  10
Dell City               68  88  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
Fort Hancock            70  90  68  91 /  30  20  10  20
Loma Linda              64  85  63  85 /  30  20  10  10
Fabens                  69  90  69  91 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Teresa            68  89  68  91 /  20  20  10  10
White Sands HQ          67  87  66  90 /  20  20  10  10
Jornada Range           66  88  65  90 /  20  20  10  10
Hatch                   67  90  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
Columbus                67  89  66  91 /  20  10  10  10
Orogrande               68  88  66  89 /  30  20  10  10
Mayhill                 55  79  54  78 /  40  30  20  20
Mescalero               55  79  54  79 /  40  30  20  20
Timberon                55  78  53  76 /  40  30  20  20
Winston                 57  85  56  85 /  20  30  20  20
Hillsboro               62  88  61  88 /  20  30  10  20
Spaceport               66  87  65  91 /  20  20  10  10
Lake Roberts            56  86  55  86 /  40  30  20  20
Hurley                  61  86  60  87 /  20  30  10  10
Cliff                   60  89  61  92 /  30  30  10  20
Mule Creek              61  88  62  89 /  20  30  10  20
Faywood                 62  87  60  88 /  20  30  10  10
Animas                  66  89  66  92 /  20  10  10  10
Hachita                 65  89  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
Antelope Wells          65  88  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
Cloverdale              64  87  63  87 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1145 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-261815-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila
Highlands/Black Range-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Eastern Black
Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County-
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco
Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Rio Grande Valley
of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-
1145 PM MDT Fri Aug 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over a
few locations which may cause flooding especially around low water
crossings, poor drainage areas and along arroyos and small streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Generally isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening hours. Brief heavy rains may cause minor flooding over
several locations. Otherwise most areas will experience little or no
rainfall during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are asked to report significant weather via our 800
number or via Twitter using our office username @NWSElPaso

Rogash