Damaging Winds in Texas, August 21, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
417 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Small disturbance, best seen on visible imagery this afternoon
southwest of Lubbock, helping to focus scattered showers and
storms across the central South Plains into the Permian Basin.
This area is expected to lift northeast this evening so have
carried chance POPs into much of the Rolling Plains. Plume of
high precipitable water air continues to stream north across west
Texas into western Oklahoma. This will likely support some
renewed growth overnight associated with a strengthening low level
jet and more shortwave energy streaming out of northern New
Mexico.

Upper level flow quickly transitions to northwest on Tuesday as
ridge axis begins to amplify across the desert southwest. This
pattern will be favorable for upscale growth of convection across
the southern Rockies into a forward propagating MCS overnight.
Have increased pops to likely category across the northwest South
Plains and southwest Panhandle as a result but these could easily
be extended further east for the remainder of the area as a
frontal boundary also gets into the mix. Greater uncertainty in
the rain forecast begins on Wednesday with the potential for the
frontal forcing to be driven further south by convective outflow
than model projections indicate. The upper flow also weakens
during this time and veers to the north/northeast as the midlevel
ridge axis briefly builds across the area. Have therefore backed
off on POPs north and east late Wednesday into Thursday. Continued
easterly upslope flow though should limit daytime heating with
a good mix of clouds and sun.

With the typically high quantity of low level moisture still in
place late in the week and another shortwave trough lifting across
the High Plains chose to accept the blended chance POPs Friday
into Saturday. We will have to also keep a close eye on any
influence the remnants of tropical storm Harvey will have over the
weekend as it moves north into central Texas.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
346 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

TXZ021>044-220900-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
346 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains...Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today mainly for the western South
Plains and southwestern TX Panhandle. These storms are expected to
remain below severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A cold front late on Tuesday will bring the potential for strong
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Localized flooding will be possible.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
415 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

TXZ035-212130-
Lubbock TX-
415 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LUBBOCK COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
located just west of Reese Center, or 10 miles west of Lubbock,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm, along with torrential rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Lubbock, Shallowater and Reese Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3354 10208 3367 10208 3375 10196 3359 10196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 211DEG 15KT 3362 10205

MCZ