The Blanket Creek Wildfire was started by lightning at 0558 PDT on 07/25/17. As of 0430 PDT on 08/01/17, the fire covered 916 acres and was 7 percent contained.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Blanket Creek Wildfire was started by lightning at 0558 PDT on 07/25/17. As of 0430 PDT on 08/01/17, the fire covered 916 acres and was 7 percent contained. 3.5 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 2:59 AM PST, 1 hour 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
359 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017
.DISCUSSION...As the closed upper low continues to spin on the
coast of northern California moist and unstable air continues to
feed into the region. Minor differences in the track of the low
can cause significant differences in exact locations of
instability and thunderstorms over the next several days, and with
this in mind confidence other than there will be thunderstorms is
not exactly high. With that in mind the forecast over the next
several days will be less defined than the models are indicating,
and the differences between the 00Z run and the 06Z run reinforce
that decision.
By this afternoon models are in agreement with the upper low
remaining pretty much in the same place. However, with the
continued moisture feed the PW values nudge above an inch across
most of the region this afternoon, bringing increased rainfall
with the thunderstorms that do develop. The increased moisture is
also accompanied by increased instability, and the benefits of the
increased moisture should be offset a bit by the increased
thunderstorm and lightning activity. Also, a short wave sweeps
from the Southeast to the northwest of the forecast area through
max heating this afternoon, and should act as a good "kicker".
Steering winds are light through the day and many of the storms
are expected to latch to the terrain, except when the short wave
kicker moves through this afternoon.
Elevated instability remains strong overnight with computed from
850 LI's ranging from a general -2 over much the region to -4 over
western Siskiyou county at 12Z Wednesday. With several short wave
s moving through overnight thunderstorms look to remain active
through the night tonight.
The closed upper low finally moves inland Wednesday (according to
current models), but with the later timing than previously shown
instability remains in western Siskiyou County and to the
northeast and west in a similar pattern as the day before, and
will issue a fire weather watch for Wednesday in those areas. The
upper low opens and shifts the instability east Wednesday night,
but that could change as is the fickle nature of closed upper
lows.
Heights rise Thursday into the weekend with temperatures expected
to climb to near or above 100 in the west side valleys and
northerncalifornia this weekend. Sven
&&
.AVIATION...25/00Z TAF CYCLE...Along the coast and over the coastal
waters. Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs over the waters will spread back
onshore this evening and become widespread tonight and persist
through Tuesday morning. Low clouds are expected to gradually lift
and clear along the coast in the early afternoon. Inland...areas of
MVFR/IFR cigs will spread into the lower Umpqua Basin late
tonight...then burn back to the coast by late Tuesday morning. KOTH
will be affected by the lower cigs but at this time it looks like
KRBG will not be affected. Over the remainder of the area...VFR
conditions will prevail through Tuesday...but so will isolated to
scattered thunderstorm activity...especially east of the Cascades.
Strong gusty and erratic winds and local obscuration of higher
terrain will be likely near thunderstorms. Hail is also possible
with stronger storms. /CC
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Monday 24 July 2017...A thermal trough
will continue to produce gusty north winds and steep to very steep
seas through Tuesday, with gales south of Cape Blanco persisting
into Tuesday morning. The thermal trough will weaken mid week, and
winds will diminish slightly, but seas will remain elevated as
residual wind seas and fresh swell remain. At least small craft
conditions will remain in the area through Thursday. With weaker
thermal troughing then continuing through the weekend, somewhat
marginal winds and seas are expected into early next week, but small
craft conditions will be possible at any time. -BPN/CC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM Monday 23 July 2017...Currently
thunderstorms are limited to Modoc and Lake counties. There is more
moisture to work with today so lightning frequency should increase
as well. In addition, models are pointing to an area from eastern
Modoc north into Strawberry/Coffeepot RAWS then east into Harney
County where storms could produce wetting rain. This area is covered
by an LAL of 4. Southeast flow aloft continues and storms that form
in Siskiyou County could drift into southern Jackson County tonight.
Ashland may be affected but Medford is much less likely to see any
activity. Models also bring these storms into the Cascades around
this evening. SE flow could bring these storms into the west slope
of the Cascades this evening and tonight. Confidence is higher today
that the eastern Umpqua NF and High Cascade Fire Zone could see
thunderstorms tonight. Thunderstorm activity will continue through
Tuesday and spread farther west...affecting just about everywhere
except the coast.
Thunderstorm potential covers a much larger area than described in
the Fire Weather Warning/Watch. The area reflects forecasted LALs of
3 or more. The thunderstorm threat will diminish Wednesday afternoon
and evening as the upper low moves out to the east of the area and
westerly flow develops over the area. This however will likely lead
to breezy west winds during the second half the week.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for
ORZ617-622>625.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
ORZ617-624-625.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for ORZ621-623.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ620-621.
CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for CAZ280.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ280-281.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for PZZ356-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
PZZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 11 AM this morning
to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.
SBN/SBN/SBNThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Blanket Creek Wildfire was started by lightning at 0558 PDT on 07/25/17. As of 0430 PDT on 08/01/17, the fire covered 916 acres and was 7 percent contained. 3.5 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 705700.