Flows on the John Day river reached flood levels downstream of Monument due to the breaking up of an ice jam.
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The episode as NWS PDT wrote it up.
Flows on the John Day river reached flood levels downstream of Monument due to the breaking up of an ice jam.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pendleton, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 8:55 PM PST, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 855 PM PST Thu Feb 9 2017 .UPDATE...Isolated rain showers continue this evening in the lower elevations and foothills. Numerous rain showers are affecting the area mountains as well this evening...with some wet snow above about 6000 feet. Temperatures remain warm, in the 40s, for the mid elevations (2000-5000 feet) this evening. Therefore, rapid melting of the snowpack is continuing, and the current flood watches/advisories look to be on track. Overnight, temepratures are forecast to dip back into the upper 20s and 30s areawide. This should allow the melting process to slow, gradually decreasing the runoff. 24 hour precip amounts are not very impressive...with less than a tenth of an inch for the valleys/basins and Deschutes plateau....two to four tenths of an inch are forecast for the northern Blue Mtns and in Wallowa County, however some of this will be in the form of snow above 4000 feet...especially tomorrow. 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible in the northern Blue mtns above 4000 feet through tomorrow and into tomorrow night. After getting rain showers this evening...expect most of the precipitation will change to snow showers later tonight and certainly on Friday for the East Slopes of the Cascades as colder air aloft works into the region. There will also be some atmospheric instability again tomorrow afternoon as the upper level low moves into central WA. Therefore, some of the showers could be heavy, and a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out. Snow levels fall to between 2000-2600 feet tomorrow for the East Slopes in WA...and between 3000-3800 feet for the East Slopes in OR. Above these levels 24 hour snow totals will be 2 to 5 inches for the East Slopes of the Cascades in Oregon tomorrow morning into tomorrow night. During this same time period look for snow totals of 4 to 8 inches for the East Slopes of the Washington Cascades above about 2400 feet(Snoqualmie Pass, White Pass, near Easton etc)...with much lower amounts of 1 to 3 inches for elevations between 1800-2300 feet (Cle Elum, Trout Lake etc). These amounts are just below advisory criteria...but could still impact some of the higher elevation roadways in this zone, such as Interstate 90 and US 12...especially Friday afternoon and evening as temperatures fall. Cold air advection continues across the forecast area on Saturday in a northwest flow pattern. Only a few lingering mountain showers are expected during this time. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Saturday afternoon, with highs only in the upper 30s and lower 40s...except upper 20s to mid 30s in the mountains. Sunday and Monday are still looking dry as an upper level ridge builds over the forecast area. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool and some patchy fog or low stratus will be possible in the lower columbia basin. A weak wave runs into the ridge on Tuesday, likely only bringing increasing clouds to the area. An upper level trough and associated frontal boundary then move into the area for the middle and end of next week, bringing additional periods of precipitation. At this early vantage point snow levels look to remain rather high. .AVIATION...06z TAFS...Generally VFR or MVFR conditions are occurring and are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Some light fog or mist will be possible through the overnight hours at most terminals. There is a low chance some denser fog forms INVOF KYKM...KDLS and KPSC but will likely leave out of the TAFs for now, due to low confidence. A scattered rain or wet snow shower will also be possible at just about any time...however KPSC and KYKM may stay dry. Winds will be mainly under 12 kts through the overnight...then southwest winds between 10 to 20 kts are forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM PST Thu Feb 9 2017/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...A winter weather system continues to move through the area. Temperatures have risen as southerly winds increased but there still remains stubborn pockets of cold air in the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain Foothills, the Kittitas Valley and parts of the Yakima Valley. Still expect most of these locations to rise above freezing for a time though most of these locations will drop back below freezing tonight. In the rest of the area, temperatures have been quite warm, even above 60 in a few places. This has led to rapid snow melt and a few flooding issues. See the Hydrology section below for a discussion of these issues. Expect that tonight's lows will be a few degrees below to a few degrees above freezing. Radar continues to show showery activity though precipitation amounts are light. A chance of rain, perhaps mixed with snow will continue through the night in the mountains, gradually decreasing over time. Central Oregon and the Blue Mountain foothills will have a slight chance of rain. Breezy south winds will continue this evening before tapering off overnight. Winds have diminished in the Grande Ronde Valley and will let the current wind advisory expire at 3 PM. Will also likely let current Winter Storm Warnings along the East Slopes of the washington Cascades and the Simcoe Highlands expire as well as temperatures have mostly risen above freezing. The upper low that has been off the coast will open into a wave tonight and move just off the coast late tonight and then ashore on Friday. This will keep a chance of rain and snow showers over the mountains with snow levels dropping to around 4000 feet tomorrow and to around 2500 feet Friday night. The lower elevations will have a slight chance of rain showers with the Columbia basin being mostly dry. Precipitation amounts will be light and snow will be limited to an inch or two in the mountains. A much weakened wave will cross the area Saturday with a chance of snow showers in the mountains with the rest of the area dry. Snow levels will be down to 1500 to 2000 feet but with limited precipitation, will only see an inch or less in the mountains. Temperature tonight will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s then drop to the 20s and lower 30s Friday night. Highs will be in the 40s on Friday then drop to the 30s and lower 40s on Saturday. Perry LONG TERM...Saturday night through Friday...An upper ridge will begin to build over the region Saturday night into Sunday. The medium to long range models are in good agreement with this ridge development. It will result in a drying trend with near seasonal normal temperatures...i.e. 40s...except 20s and 30s in the mountains. The forecast area will pretty much remain precipitation free from Saturday night through Tuesday night. With the high pressure aloft there will be a threat of Columbia Basin and adjacent valley fog as inversions develop. However this time of year in late winter the fog becomes less persistent and will likely burn off during the late morning hours and develop later at night. The next chance for precipitation will not be until Wednesday when a weather system moves into the region as the flow becomes more southwest and moisture moves in off the Pacific. The models are still in fair agreement that this southwest flow will develop for the latter part of next week though there will be some differences in strength of the trough or upper low off the coast on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals so there will not be any threat of arctic air in the extended period. There will also not be any threat of concentrated heavy rain combined with rapid snow melt to create flooding. Instead it looks more likely a gradual melting of snow during the daytime hours through next week. Winds will be fairly light through the period...except it will become breezy to windy at times in the Grande Ronde Valley. 88 HYDROLOGY...A flood watch for portions of northeast Oregon and southeast Washington will continue until Friday morning as very warm temperatures are noted over the mountains with a few showers yet to move through. There has been some rapid snowmelt occurring through the Grande Ronde Valley, with some local flooding in Union and Elgin, with a Flood Advisory through mid day Friday. Somewhat cooler air will be filtering in on Friday to decrease snowmelt. ML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 33 43 31 40 / 30 20 20 10 ALW 36 47 32 41 / 60 20 20 10 PSC 30 47 29 42 / 10 10 0 10 YKM 28 44 24 41 / 20 10 10 10 HRI 30 46 29 42 / 10 10 10 10 ELN 26 42 24 36 / 10 20 10 10 RDM 30 47 24 40 / 10 20 10 10 LGD 38 45 28 37 / 40 40 40 20 GCD 34 48 28 39 / 20 40 30 10 DLS 31 46 31 42 / 20 30 20 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Flood Watch until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ049-050-502-503-507. WA...Flood Watch until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ029-030. && 77/88/77
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The John Day River at Service Creek briefly rose to 12.2 feet (flood stage is 11.5 feet). This was the result of an ice jam near Monument Oregon, blocking the river and then breaking free, sending the large volume of water downstream.
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