Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, March 9, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening and push
south overnight as frontal boundary moves through the region.
Greater potential continues to look like Northwest Arkansas
through 06z and will thus continue tempo groups through this time
period. Behind the front...breezy westerly winds becoming
northerly winds are expected with mostly clear skies for Northeast
Oklahoma. To the south and east...MVFR ceilings look to be
possible late tonight into early Friday morning for Northwest
Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma before clearing out. During the
day Friday...breezy northeasterly winds and some scattered high
clouds are forecast over the CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenges today are: 1) Tstorm coverage and
severe potential this afternoon and tonight, 2) Rain chances and
the potential for some wintry weather Saturday and Saturday
evening with the next storm system, and 3) Temps/precip chances
next week given considerable model run to run inconsistencies.

Storms should fire this afternoon mostly likely near the
intersection of a surface trough and an outflow boundary from
ongoing storms that tracked across SE KS and now into W MO. Deep
layer shear is sufficient for organized rotating updrafts, as
indicated by the updraft helicity tracks in the HRRRX and our
local model. Storms will track generally southeast toward NW AR or
possibly as far NE OK late this afternoon and into the evening.
High LCLs due to high T/Td spreads would tend to limit any tornado
potential, at least early on, but conditions could improve this
evening if storms remain cellular long enough. A more southeast
motion would improve storm-relative low level flow in this
environment. Any supercell that can develop could produce some
very large or giant hail. Eventually, storms are expected to
become a multicellular line or cluster and move southeast later
on tonight and transition toward a damaging wind threat. Other
development is possible along the surging back door front later
tonight back into E OK. However, by this time the front should
undercut any storms that are generated along it and would thus
reduce the severe threat.

After a quieter and cooler day Friday behind the front, an upper
storm system is expected to drop southeast over the central Plains
on Saturday. Low-mid level cold frontogenesis combined with broad
QG lift from the storm system will bring widespread rain to start
the weekend to the region. Thermal profiles are expected to get
cold enough by late Saturday and into Saturday evening to allow
the rain to change over to a wintry mix across portions of NW AR,
especially in the higher terrain, before the precip comes to an
end by mid evening or so. It is not out of the question we could
see up to an inch of snow/sleet accumulation in the higher terrain
of Madison and eastern Carroll counties.

The general idea of a more amplified western CONUS ridge and
eastern CONUS trough next week is still there. This pattern should
maintain an overall cooler than average regime for much of next
week. However, the medium range models have had poor run to run
consistency regarding the details, such as frontal timing, and
precip potential. For instance, yesterday's 12Z Euro run had the
next front thru our area Monday and indicated that a warming
trend would begin about midweek as the trough began to lift out
and was drier. Today's run is slower with the early week front and
more reluctant to progress the pattern east, slowing the warm up.
In addition, there is more moisture in the NW flow baroclinic
zone which could bring brief periods of some light precip. Given
lower confidence, I have elected to stay closer to consensus on
temps and keep PoPs low. More adjustments to the forecast will be
needed when details will get ironed out better in the future.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  58  44  46 /  30  10  30  90
FSM   53  64  40  43 /  50  10  20  90
MLC   51  64  46  51 /  30  10  20  90
BVO   38  55  41  47 /  30  10  40  90
FYV   42  57  37  41 /  70  10  20  90
BYV   41  54  34  38 /  80  10  20  90
MKO   47  62  43  46 /  50  10  20  90
MIO   38  53  38  43 /  50  10  40  90
F10   46  61  46  49 /  30  10  20  90
HHW   60  67  46  55 /  30  20  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
452 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
452 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Extreme northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon through mid evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending after midnight.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK... .

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid to late evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...All eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Generally along and west of a line from Nowata to McAlester.
	ONSET...Ongoing...improving after sunset.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe storms are ongoing across southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri with additional development expected into far
northeast Oklahoma this evening. Storms will initially remain
discrete and capable of very large hail with a limited risk of
tornadoes. During the mid to late evening hours the storms are
likely to congeal into a larger thunderstorm complex as they
develop east and southeast. This will transition the primary
severe weather risk to locally damaging winds. The severe weather
risk is expected to diminish during the late evening hours with
storms weakening below severe limits after midnight.

Fire weather concerns will also continue until sunset across
portions of eastern Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Winter Weather Potential.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cooler temperatures will overspread the region Friday and
more so on Saturday as widespread rain and a stronger
cold front move through the region. Temperatures across
the higher terrain of far northwest Arkansas may cool
sufficiently to allow for light snow accumulations by
early Sunday morning. Dry and cool weather will then prevail
through the middle of next week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

OKZ057-058-063-100045-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
625 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CRAIG...NORTH
CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CST...

At 625 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of
Bluejacket, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Fairland...
Afton...                          Bluejacket...
Narcissa...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 292 and 304.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3672 9511 3685 9508 3679 9475 3662 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 285DEG 26KT 3675 9502