Wildfire in Oklahoma, March 8, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1143 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Windy conditions will continue through the rest of the day today,
but winds will diminish around sunset, and will not be quite as
strong tomorrow. A surface trough over the Panhandles will cause
some variability in wind direction and speed at KGAG and KWWR this
afternoon. A few clouds with ceilings between 2,000 and 3,000 ft
may affect our Texas counties, and possibly KSPS, this afternoon,
before dissipating. A much more pronounced layer, probably with
bases between 800 ft and 1,500 ft, will move into north Texas
around 09/0900Z, then spread quickly northeast. This will be
associated with a substantial increase in low-level moisture from
the south. Ceilings should begin to rise during the mid-morning,
and mostly VFR conditions are expected in the afternoon.
Confidence in the exact timing and ceilings/visibilities with this
feature is not very high, but MVFR or IFR conditions are likely
at most of our TAF sites Thursday morning.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1045 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated wind direction and increased wind speed.

DISCUSSION...
Updated forecast to be in line with latest observations and model
runs. Winds in the northwest are expected to gradually turn
northwest this afternoon. Wind speeds have come back higher than
previously forecast, so increased wind speeds as well.

Day

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The March 8-9, 2017 12 UTC TAF discussion follows:

AVIATION...
Generally expect no flight or visibility restrictions through
most of the TAF period. However, one potential exception is smoke
from any ongoing wildfires across the Texas panhandle. Southwest
to west winds could potentially advect smoke toward KGAG and/or
KWWR today. Probability of occurrence is too low to include in
TAFs for now.

Otherwise, south to southwest winds are expected to become gusty
this afternoon before weakening and backing to the southeast this
evening. Some lower/MVFR ceilings may affect southwest
Oklahoma/north Texas terminals toward the end of the TAF period.
Opted to include tempos to account for this possibility for now.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concerns over the next week are fire weather today
and the chance of showers/storms on Saturday.

For today, surface winds are expected to be stronger than yesterday;
however, moisture advection is expected to be present today as well.
It appears the greatest juxtaposition of wind speeds/low relative
humidity will be near I-40 northward. Opted to expand the Red Flag
Warning one row of counties southward based on relative humidity
between 20-25% with forecast wind speeds >20 mph. Though the
humidity will be on the marginal end, the Energy Release Component
(ERC) values are progged to be just below the 90th percentile.

For tonight, moisture advection will continue to increase, which
will begin to increase the cloud cover. Some showers and/or drizzle
will be possible across southeast Oklahoma where the depth of the
saturated layer appears sufficient.

A wind shift (the primary air mass change behind the front is
drier air) is expected to enter northwest Oklahoma on Thursday.
This wind shift will stall near the Red River and lift back
northward as a warm front (in a Theta-E sense) on Friday, which
will maintain a chance of showers and storms. Initially the
greatest probabilities of rain will be across southern Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of north Texas, but this will shift northward
as the warm front lifts northward late Friday.

A more amplified shortwave trough will approach from the northwest
on Saturday. Differential cyclonic vorticity advection,
isentropic ascent, and a surface front suggest widespread lift
that will result in a very high probability of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Behind the cold front, cold air
advection will result in gusty northerly winds. This will result
in below average temperatures for Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, a cold front associated with a mid/upper trough across
the Great Lakes is expected to pass by the Southern Plains.
Moisture recovery appears too limited for any precipitation
chances with this front. Went colder than blended guidance on
Tuesday as both the 08/00Z GFS and ECMWF deterministic guidance
indicates the potential for below-average temperatures as a 1040
mb surface ridge enters the Northern Plains. These temperatures
may have to be lowered in subsequent forecasts if the colder trend
continues.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  48  77  49 /   0   0  20  20
Hobart OK         72  49  78  49 /   0   0  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  75  53  79  55 /   0   0  10  30
Gage OK           74  46  81  39 /   0   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     72  44  78  42 /   0   0  20  10
Durant OK         71  54  75  57 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>031.

TX...None.
&&

14/23/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1149 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1149 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Fire Weather...
Near critical and critical fire weather conditions will continue
today as south winds remain breezy and humidities stay very low.
The area with strongest wind and lowest humidity will be northern
and western Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
Thunderstorms are likely on Saturday with the greatest chances
over eastern and central Oklahoma.

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