Wildfire in Oklahoma, February 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1042 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION... /For the 06z TAFs/
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. A cold front
will move through tonight resulting in a shift in wind direction
to northerly. Wind speeds will pick up considerably toward morning
and persist into at least mid-late afternoon before subsiding.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017/

UPDATE...
Adjusted temperature trends through the overnight.

DISCUSSION...
Quick evening update, temperatures are still in the upper 70s to
mid 80s across the region, with upper 80s across western north
Texas. Previous forecast was more bullish with cooling through
the evening. Adjusted temperatures accordingly, but the challenge
is how fast temperatures cool with calm winds and mostly clear
skies through midnight, before the arrival of the surface cold
front from the north. The latest RAP has an okay handle on the
expected trend, fitting current conditions and how the forecast is
expected to evolve overnight. In response, did increasing
overnight lows one or two degrees, primarily across northern
Oklahoma and locations where temperatures were well into the mid
to upper 90s for several hours this afternoon.

Kurtz

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After an unbelievably warm day across the area today, a cold
front will push south through the area tonight, bringing in more
seasonal weather. Main concerns for tonight will be associated
with the wind shift and strong gusts and any ongoing fires.
Expect to see gusts over 40 mph and will issue a wind advisory
for portions of western/southwestern Oklahoma and western north
Texas late tonight and through much of the day Sunday.

Sunday will feel quite a bit colder, even with temps expected to
top out in the 50s most places, with the strong winds
continuing throughout much of the day before relaxing late.

By Sunday night into Monday slow moving storm system will begin
to impact the area with increasing precip chances. There still
appears a chance for some sleet/snow to mix in with the rain
across far western parts of the area early on Monday, before
changing back to all rain during the day. Could also see a
rain/snow mix across far northern Oklahoma Monday night, but
again it would be light and do expect any accumulations to occur.

Otherwise, much of the area will see some much needed rain, with
the best chance across the southern half of Oklahoma south into
north Texas late Monday and Monday night. Ecmwf cont to be a bit
more aggressive with precip chances across the area lingering at
least through the day on Tuesday before shifting to the east.
This should give us at least a temporary reprieve from the fire
weather concerns.

From the middle of the week into next weekend things look dry with
a warming trend. Models differ as we get to the end of the
forecast with regards to precip chances with the ECMWF remaining
dry, while GFS brings another shot of rain to parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  55  35  47 /   0   0  10  50
Hobart OK         45  55  33  43 /   0   0  10  70
Wichita Falls TX  50  59  38  47 /   0   0  10  60
Gage OK           40  50  31  41 /   0   0  20  70
Ponca City OK     44  52  34  49 /   0   0  10  30
Durant OK         54  62  43  51 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for OKZ014-016-
     021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

04/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
958 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
958 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through the Overnight...

.WIND...
Strong north winds will develop behind the passage of a cold front
early Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.FIRE WEATHER AND WIND...
Despite cooler temperatures, fire danger will be high again
Sunday as north winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with gusts to
40 mph.

.WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
Scattered rain showers are expected Monday through early
Wednesday. The rain may mix with some light snow or sleet across
portions of northern and western Oklahoma early Monday morning.
The rain may also mix with snow Monday night into early Tuesday
across portions of northern Oklahoma. At this time, no significant
accumulation or impacts are expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz