Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, April 4, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Vigorous upper wave currently moving out of the Texas panhandle
will approach from the west this afternoon/evening with the threat
for severe weather. Surface low was located east of Fredrick with
a warm front extending into northeast Oklahoma. As surface low
tracks northeast, warm front is forecast to lift north to near
I-44 by mid/late afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will
likely develop near the frontal boundary across northeast Oklahoma
by late afternoon as cap continues to erode with strong surface
heating. Moderate instability, coupled with strong shear, will
initially support a large hail threat with storms transitioning
to a hail/damaging wind threat as convective line moves into
northwest Arkansas this evening. There is a limited tornado
threat with any supercells that develop near the warm front
across NE OK, however the main inhibiting factor remains the lack
of deeper low level moisture.

Main severe threat will end shortly after midnight as storms move
east of northwest Arkansas. Behind departing system, cold/breezy
conditions are expected into the day Wednesday with scattered
showers across NE OK/NW AR. Surface high settles over the region
Thursday night and with clear skies a freeze appears likely over
portions of Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Friday
morning.

Upper ridge begins to build back into the Southern Plains Friday
into the early part of the weekend with warmer conditions. Strong
upper jet streak will move out of the desert southwest during the
day Sunday with showers/thunderstorm chances increasing along
approaching Pacific front Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  63  42  66 /  80  30  10   0
FSM   54  63  42  67 /  80  40  10   0
MLC   52  66  41  69 /  70  20  10   0
BVO   45  63  36  68 /  80  30  10   0
FYV   48  56  36  61 /  80  50  10   0
BYV   50  56  41  60 /  80  50  10   0
MKO   50  62  40  67 /  80  30  10   0
MIO   48  60  39  62 /  80  50  10   0
F10   50  64  41  68 /  60  20  10   0
HHW   52  66  41  70 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma into far
		   Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and just southeast of Interstate 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...after 6 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...North of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...After 6 pm.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OKlahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
between 3 and 5 pm this afternoon in advance of an area of low
pressure tracking from southwest Oklahoma to southwest Missouri.
Winds aloft will be favorable for supercells to develop and large
hail up to softball size is possible with the strongest storms. A
limited tornado potential will exist in advance of the area of low
pressure and along a stalled frontal boundary which is expected
to be near, or just south of, Interstate 44 by late this afternoon.
Low level moisture will be a limiting factor for the tornadic
potential, however locally intense outflow winds may also result
in vicinity of any supercells. Storms will spread into western
Arkansas by the early evening hours. Instability will be less
across this area, however the passing strong storm system will
help maintain some risk of severe weather through the evening
hours. The severe weather potential will end around midnight.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible north of Interstate 40 this
evening into tonight as widespread rains develop. A strong cold
front will follow the storms system with strong northerly winds
spreading into the region tonight.

There will also be a limited fire spread potential through late
afternoon along and south of Interstate 40 as temperature warm to
around 80 degrees with south winds of 10 to 20 mph.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY through FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds and much cooler temperatures will prevail on
Wednesday. Temperatures will warm by the weekend with gusty
southerly winds returning on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances return
by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.