Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 4, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
157 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front forming near Lake Erie will drop to Northern Ohio
today, before traveling south across Ohio on Monday. The front
will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms as it pushes
through the area. Cooler and drier weather is forecast for
Tuesday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
East-west axis of moisture convergence extends across the
northern part of the forecast area north of I-70. This coincides
with the better instability in the area. So convection is
developing in this region. Recent HRRR/RAP runs continue to
suggest that this activity will track east and diminish later
this afternoon with a refocusing of convection further north.
Forecast highs look on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front will be moving slowly to Central Ohio tonight.
Convection will decrease in intensity and coverage with loss of
daytime heating.

For Monday, the front will gradually progress south to the
vicinity of the Ohio River. This will allow the chance for
showers and thunderstorms to persist through the day. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may develop in a swath of short wave
energy over Kentucky.

Rather weak wind fields in a marginally unstable environment
suggest a low severe weather threat. Minor flooding may be
observed due to the slow frontal movement and weak wind flow
allowing slow moving cells.

Temperatures will exhibit a cooling trend due to cold
advection, clouds and precip, with highs reaching around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface cold front to drop south through the Ohio Valley Monday
evening. Therefore, will linger low chance pops across the far
southeast.

Large elongated mid/upr level low to drop south from the eastern
Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley at mid week. Model solutions
have trended west with this feature. Will show low chance pops acrs
the north and east Tuesday afternoon. Have trended Tuesdays
temperatures a little cooler with highs from near 70 north to 75
south.

Mid level s/w expected to rotate around this elongated low Wednesday
which will keep a chance of showers in the forecast mainly during
the afternoon. The best chance of a shower will occur over the far
eastern counties. Under the influence of this low temperatures will
continue below normal with highs on Wednesday generally in the lower
70s.

Model solutions differ on timing regarding the mid level low
shifting east. Have trended slower but will keep Thursday dry at
this time. Expect highs in the mid 70s.

Uncertainty increases with model solutions differing on timing of
mid level s/w and associated front toward the end of the week. Have
limited mention of pcpn to slight chance Friday with the approach of
this front. Temperatures to warm up some with Fridays highs expected
to be in the upper 70s to around 80.

This front looks to stall out across the southern Great Lakes with
mid level ridge building in next weekend. Solution timing
differences continue but at this time have maintained a dry forecast
Saturday. Slow warm up to continue with Saturdays forecast highs in
the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered to broken high-based cumulus will prevail during the
early part of the TAF period. Convection is developing north of
the Dayton and Columbus terminals. This activity is expected to
track east but will have to continue to monitor trends in case
this may affect one of those airports early.

There will be another chance of showers and thunderstorms at
these locations after 09Z, but at this point the probability is
too low to include any mention in the TAFs. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail. An approaching cold front late in the
period will result in veering winds.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
526 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-050930-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
526 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening. A
few of the thunderstorms could be severe with damaging winds the
primary threat. In addition, locally heavy rainfall could cause some
minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-
088-050930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
526 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.