Damaging Wind in Nevada, September 7, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
341 PM PDT Thu Sep 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
evening will become more scattered to numerous for most of
northern and central Nevada on Friday, with showers lingering
into Friday night. The cooling trend will continue through the
weekend with decreasing coverage of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

The strong ridge that is amplified well into Canada is beginning
to get pushed a bit eastward. This will be providing us some
relief from the recent prolonged record heat beginning today. Low
pressure off of the northern California coast will be moving
southward, though remaining along the coast the next couple of
days. This puts the Great Basin in a southerly flow which will
bring showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday.

Thunderstorms this afternoon are a mix of wet and dry storms and
the drier storms will have outflow winds gusting to up to 40-50
kts. Storms are expected to diminish tonight. On Friday afternoon,
an even better push of southerly moisture will bring scattered to
numerous thunderstorms into the region. The storms will be
wetter, with some heavy downpours bringing the threat of localized
flooding, especially in Northern Nye and White Pine counties,
though some faster storm motion in these areas may limit this.

Enough moisture and instability looks to remain to continue
showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours on Friday
night. Thunderstorm coverage will decrease from the west on
Saturday, but will continue once again in eastern Nevada.

High temperatures Friday will struggle to reach into the 80's for
most areas due to the extensive cloud cover, except for perhaps
Humboldt and western Elko counties who may cloud up later.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through next Thursday.

There is a lot of tropical energy in the air that could be
confusing the models right now. So did not make many changes.
While Hurricane Irma decides where to plunge into the Eastern
Seaboard, an upper low will meander off the Pacific coast,
possibly supplying a modest amount of moisture flow from the
south into the CWFA. At the same time, what has been a dominant
upper high over the interior West will shift southeastward and set
up temporarily over the Four Corners region. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day. By next Thursday the
closed low will possibly move inland across Nevada as an open wave
with increased chances for precipitation. However there is
another tropical system affecting the east coast which could
interrupt model consensus by then. Daytime temperatures will cool
down into the 80s for the most part due to cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS will persist into the evening hours across the
eastern half of Nevada including at KELY and KEKO. Strong outflow
winds up to 45 knots will be possible in the vicinity of a few of
the stronger cell. Thunderstorms are transitioning from dry to
wet and reduced visibility in the heavier showers is possible.
Friday will be much the same as far as convection is concerned.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through
this evening before tapering off tonight, with a mix of wet and
dry storms. A bigger surge of southerly moisture will move in on
Friday and storms will become scattered to numerous, especially in
Fire Zones 454,455, and 457. The storms are expected to be mainly
wet, with some local flooding possible, especially in the
aforementioned zones. Southerly winds will be strongest Friday
afternoon in western Fire Zone 457 with some gusts to around 35
mph, though RH will be above critical levels in this area.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

90/92/92/90