Hail in Nevada, June 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
344 PM PDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will move through the state tonight and
Monday bringing strong winds and some significant high-elevation
snowfall. After a chilly start Tuesday morning, warm and dry
conditions will return for the remainder of the week.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. The radar is just now
filling in good from Elko westward. Got our first strikes over
Elko Count about 230pm east of Tuscarora. Temperatures are still
mild all over...Elko 70 degrees and Winnemucca 57 degrees. Peak
winds across northern Nye and White Pine Counties have been in the
40s with temperatures in the 70s at Tonopah and Ely. There has
been a noticeable change in the tracking of central low pressure
on the latest model runs which has led to a westward shift of the
precipitation core and a timing delay for the snow expected across
northern Elko County.

This evening. Low pressure will be moving through northern
California and into Nevada near Reno. Winds could reach 65 mph in
places south of highway 50 as the pressure gradient tightens,
which poses a public threat and a fire weather concern as the
system gets closer.

Midnight tonight through Tuesday morning. The modeled storm track
will take the low center near Elko and eject it out past Idaho and
into Montana and Wyoming. The model tracking has changed a bit in
the past 24 hours and the low center initially will drop along or
behind the Sierras. The Winter Weather Advisory has been delayed
by 6 hours with a new start time for northern Elko County of 12z
or 5am. Otherwise, the models are still showing very good
synchronicity with the track. The higher terrain of central Nevada
should see several inches of snow which should not pose a problem
for this time of year. Otherwise, the foot of the Ruby Mountains
and Lamoille could get 6 inches of snow out of this system as it
passes, briefly dropping the snow level below 6000 feet. High
temperatures will generally only reach the 40s. Low temperatures
will generally be in the 30s, which will lead to some frost
potential Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon. This will be the start of a dry period. The
exiting low will pull out over the Dakotas and leave behind some
dry weather with a mild northwesterly flow aloft. High
temperatures will rise back into the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday

Dry conditions with lighter winds expected through the long term.

Northwest flow Tuesday night will transition into more of a weak
zonal flow Wednesday with a fairly flat ridge to our south.
Tuesday nights lows will begin to moderate slightly, with
temperatures in the middle 30's to the lower 40's, though there
may be pockets of below freezing valley temperatures under
clearing skies. Temperatures begin getting closer to normal
Wednesday in the 70's and then Thursday in the mid 70's to the mid
80's. Lows Wednesday and Thursday nights will be mainly in the
40's.

Models are in good agreement that the ridge will begin building
northward on Friday and height rises will lead to more extensive
warming through next weekend. This will bring highs above normal
in the mid 80's to the lower 90's. Overnight lows in the 40's will
transition to mainly lows in the 50's over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

KWMC: Showers this evening with high confidence that rain will
become moderate to heavy at times towards Monday morning with MVFR
cigs and vis. West to northwest winds gusting up to 35 mph at
times continue through Monday morning.

KEKO: Low confidence in thunderstorms near terminal late this
afternoon and early evening but higher confidence further north
into Northern Elko County. Lower confidence in timing of showers
overnight and onslaught of MVFR conditions. Cold front passage
with switch to Northwest winds expected around 15Z- 17Z.

KELY: High confidence in strong south winds 25-35 mph with some
gusts to 60 mph, tapering towards 05Z. Southerly winds increase
again in the morning with low confidence of timing to onset of
showers.

KTPH: High confidence in strong west winds gusting to 40 mph this
afternoon and then back to the Northwest around 01Z, with gusts
increasing to near 50 mph through 05Z. Northwest winds 20-25 mph
gusting to near 35 mph at times continue through Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The northern NV fire weather zones are expected to
get a widespread soaking rain now through at least late Monday.
The mountains of Humboldt and Elko Counties will see substantial
snow accumulation, with snow levels lowering to around or even
briefly below 6000ft. Central NV will see a lesser amount of snow
accumulation.

Red Flag Warning will be in effect through this evening for zones
455 and 457 for winds and humidity. Winds could gust as high as 65
mph and RH has already touched single digits in spots.

Precipitation should exit northern NV by midday Tuesday and the
remainder of the week will be dry with a warming trend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures will continue to cool slowing the
snowmelt process in the higher elevations. This is slowly reducing
flows on the smaller creeks and streams.
Valley rain and higher elevation snow tonight through Monday
night may result in changes to the flow/depth on areas
streams/rivers into next week. Interested persons will want to pay
close attention to the forecast this weekend and into next week.

Lamoille Creek is below flood stage but continues to run high.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains near minor flood
stage and is expected to remain steady for the next couple of
days.

The lower Humboldt River from Comus downstream through Winnemucca
to the Humboldt/Pershing County border continues in minor flood
stage and will continue to slowly rise through the week.

Wildhorse Reservoir is still flowing over the spillway. There is
no threat for flooding at this time downstream along the Owyhee
River.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for
Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northwestern Nye
County-Southeastern Elko County.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northeastern
Nye County-White Pine County.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northern Nye
County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of Highway 50-White Pine
County.

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